Is it just me or are 9th draft games really random?

[Margalis]

I cannot count the number of times games are decided by one person getting either mana screwed or flooded or having to mulligan. It feels to me that at least half the games come down to that. I did not feel that was the case in Mirrodin drafting.

The only deck to me that feels consistent is an aggro deck with very low casting cost, because you can keep 2 land hands without muliigan even if you are going first. Maybe I should keep 2 land hands without mulligan even if I'm going first with a normal deck?

It seems to me that the set is so straightforward that drawing too many lands or having to mulligan a couple times is almost impossible to overcome. I can't count the number of times I lost just because my opponent played a creature a turn while I drew a few lands in a row. Of course I've won my fair share the same way. Mulliganing is bad for the same reason, you mulligan a time or two and you are a couple spells behind, which in 9th seems to put you at a huge disadvantage.

I think this is because in 9th where there aren't any block mechanics it's hard to put a deck together with overall synergy or a really strong game-plan. I mean you can do something basic like black + red aggo + removal, but for the most part it is pretty straightforward and it comes down to who is drawing the most removal and creatures.

It really isn't fun for me because I feel cheated on a lot of my losses AND a lot of my wins feel cheap as well. As I said before, I feel like it's less than half the games where my deck draws about the same as theirs and the actual play and deck building really matters.

[Hoax]

I feel like that almost every time I play a draft in 9th (which is the only set I've ever drafted)  I assumed it was because I suck at drafting.  Almost every time I lose when I've drafted what I consider a decent deck it is because I run into a string of drawing 4-7 land in a row... 

You might have a point that there is nothing clever one can do in a draft (my favorite was the turn all lands into 2/2 because it overcame the reason I always feel like I've lost) with the 9th cards.  But I can't comment as I have no point of reference.

[Margalis]

It does seem worse in 9th. I need to stop mulliganing on 2 lands. Mana screw is a lot better than flood I think.

In Mirrodin you had a lot of cantrips, affinity, mana accel/fixers, etc. And you could put together a deck with more of a theme, like white + equip or black/blue affinity. 9th decks are mostly just a bunch of creatures and the only real synergy is the overall curve and tempo of the deck.

[Xilren's Twin]

Well, you're right and wrong.  What you are describing is very common in almost any limited format, and the shufflers in MTGO just makes it that much more glaring.

That being said, finding decent ways to thin your deck is very helpful in limited, considering most decks have a few really good cards and lots of filler material.  That one' of the reasons I like to draft blue, and to a less extent green.  White has that one card (name escapes me but it's basically a 1 shot land tax for 1 white) which helps clear the land, but blue clearly has the most ways to dig through your deck.  Slight of Hand is a good example of a cheap card that can really help your tempo early.  One the latest draft where I lost in the round 3 was really due to the other player being able to consistent draw more cards with Trade routes and other blue spells.  he didn't have better cards overall, he could just get to them faster and more consistently.

To put it another way, when you draft, do you start with a strategy and try to fit your choices around it, or do you decide what color you are going with based on the first two picks you see?  I heard debates on both sides...

Xilren

Xilren

[Hoax]

I'd say by the 3rd card I've made two picks for colors, and by the 7th I often have changed one color into something else because I percieved a lack of one color or something really great dropped or I've only drafted one color so far and I'm picking up the most usefull second color scraps.  Actually I have no system and I'm positive I suck at drafting...   

[Johny Cee]

Hmmm.... 

I do get the occasional mana screw/flood,  but if it's happening consistently you might look at other issues.  I find I get fouled up by mana curve and color screw,  unless I really remind myself to watch it.

Check your mana curve. 

This depends on the deck type you're running,  but I think this might be part of your issue.  Generally what I hear is that you want to have an average curve around 3 to 3.5 casting cost.  Go lower (and less lands) if you're running an aggro or weenie deck,  a little higher if you're playing more controlish or big beats.

This means that you can keep a 2 land hand,  and be able to play a spell or two.  Or that, if you draw one land,  your hand becomes almost entirely playable.

If you never get a fourth land to play any of your spells, and get run over by someone pushing the beats,  it's not mana screw as much as it's an inefficient mana curve.

The low casting cost slots are usually best devoted to stalling cards, accelerators, or sifters/drawers.  Some examples, by color: Llanowar Elves/Rampant Growth for accel, Drudge Skellies/Master Decoy for stalls, Sleight of Hand/Thought Courier for sifting.

Be aware of color screw.

When you're drafting your cards,  kick yourself if you keep taking cards with multiple colored mana requirements.  Especially if you're in 2 or 3 colors.

I love enfeeblement,  but if I'm already in multiple colors the double black requirement makes the card only semi-usable.  Ditto for alot of great cards like: Flame Wave, Sandstone Warriors, Consume Spirit. 

Unless I know I'm going with one color and maybe a splash of another,  I try to steer clear of the double or triple costed cards.  Your finishers can be double or triple colored,  but then you want to play these later in the game for the win.


More than a couple of times,  I think I've drafted a pretty solid deck.  When I go to put it together,  I find that I have a bunch of high casting cost cards,  and no way to get to a point in the game where they're usuable.  My worst moment was drafting Ancient Silverback, WoG, and a bunch of green, and getting run down in round 1 by a mediocre aggro deck.

[Margalis]

I prefer to draft blue as well for the reasons given. Sleight of Hand, Counsel of the Soratami and Sift are all nice, as is Aven Fisher. And with any luck you can get a Tidings or Thought Courier or Magpie. Blue is very good at both draw and card sifting. (I think the card you are thinking of is Gift of Estates) Also I consider Mana Leak and Remove Soul both very playable, so blue has some good depth at common. Whereas a color like red has a number of common cards that are only good in certain types of decks.

I typically will make my first few picks based on overall card quality then try to formulate a plan around them. For example if I get some true bomb cards I want to maxmize my chance of drawing them, which means blue is a good choice. I also try to keep my eyes open and figure out which colors are being underdrafted. As such usually I start in one color then branch out to second based on what looks available and will complement my deck.

My overall preference is blue and another color other than red, unless my red has some decent control elements like pyroclasm. Red and blue seems like a bad combo for me because red typically wants to rush. I won't force anything but I do have my preferences.

Edit: My average CC tends to be in the high 2s to mid 3s. I would say I average around 3.2-3.4. I also am pretty good about avoiding color screw, I might pass up low CC creatures outside my main color (if I have one) and I pay attention if I draft something like red or black pump that those are only going to be good if I play a lot of that color. Also if I'm going to get something like Ancient Silverback I will only play that if I have accel or a deck that can force a long game, or relatively few other high CC cards. My limit is usually 5cc unless I'm getting something really amazing.

I think a lot of it is just that I mulligan away more 2-land hands than I should.

[Johny Cee]

Blue also has a slew of the "1 power/high tough" cheapo creatures for stalling.

In my book,  a two land hand is a keeper as long as it isn't either:

Swamp, Swamp, bunch of blue cards; or
5 six casting cost cards and two land

Drafting, it's usually 17-18 land,  so you can pretty much be guaranteed of getting a land in your next two draws if you keep a two land hand. 

[Xilren's Twin]

Oh yeah, one other minor but important point; you are electing to play 2nd (i.e. draw first) right?

Xilren

[Margalis]

I play second unless I have an extreme aggro deck.

I just played against someone who missed the first 8 picks of the draft. They ended up with 3 Volcanic Hammers, 2 Shocks, and an Enfeeblement! I was also drafting red and grabbing every piece of removal I could, and I had one Hammer and one Shock. Wacky. It's really hard for me to believe people would pass him so much easily splashable removal. We had some close games but that was too much. But at least that was the second round and both matches were close. (I had him down to 2 life, could not draw a shock or hammer or a flyer for a couple of rounds that would have won it)

I didn't mulligan a 2 land hand and I worked out fine. I think that is probably a lot of my problem.

[Hoax]

Very good info all around, thanks guys!

So when does Rav drop anyways?  I'm only willing to pay for perhaps two more 9th drafts.

[Margalis]

Rav is end of October I think. I had a lot more fun drafting Mirrodin than 9th so hopefully Rav will be good.

[Hoax]

I just lost to the worst deck I've ever seen, because he had a pyroclasm and an icy manipulator, oh yeah I lost by being mil stoned to death... I just always feel completely and utterly cheated by drafting...

[Margalis]

Well I finally had a draft that went ok...sort of.

I drafted a good red/black deck. 2 gravediggers, a nekrataal, 2 enfeeblements, a consume spirit, volcanic hammer, razortooth rats, vampiric tutor, orcish artillery, anaba shaman, grave pact, etc.

First 2 rounds I rolled over people.

Third round I got ONE land hands all 3 times! (Of course I mulliganed all 3) All three games were close, I ended up losing when I had him at 1 point of damage in the last game and maybe 3 in the next to last. Having to mulligan all three games REALLY sucked. In the third game it meant I drew removal one turn later, which meant he got to hit me with a Magpie one extra time, which was the difference in the game. Even with all that said I think I could have won the third round had I played differently. (When you opponent is at 1 life, there is usually something you could have done to have it work out better.) However I knew he had a WOG  in his deck so I had to be careful not to overextend.

WOG is good. I lost game 2 to WOG and game 3 I basically lost because I had to play around it a bit. Still I can't complain.

I wasn't sure about Grave Pact but it worked out pretty well. Gives my little guys like Ravenous Rats something to do. Especially with 2 Gravediggers working, I get a big numbers advantage then can attack with weaker creatures that he has to let through. Helped me a lot in the second round against a green deck. I would get ahead but then he would play some fatties. But with Grave Pact he either had to let my guys through or block them and sac his own guys anyway, makes it much easier to win any race.

One nice thing about red/black is that since red and black have a lot of removal I don't have to splash for a third color. This means every Consume Spirit and black/red pumper is that much better and the mana base is solid. Even keeping some 2 land hands I didn't have any real mana problems.