Season 5 Day 3 Predictions

[IainC]

Another day, another set of hilariously improbable predictions: I was 10/15 in day one and 8/16 in day two, let's see where it goes from here.

Division 1:
Celer v Carnifex - The Elvers get a couple of critical players back just in time for the lizards to get their claws into them. They're giving up a lot of TV though and Carnifex has a team to be afraid of. 3-3 draw. Actual result: 1-1 draw
Ingmar v Sjofn - Ingmar will be sleeping on the couch after this one. Lots of blood (most of it Norse) but not much in the way of scoring. 1-0 Ingmar. Actual result: 1-1 draw
Proudft v Paelos - Proudft has been punching below his weight so far in the league. THis is where he turns it around. 2-1 Proudft. Actual result: 2-0 Proudft
IainC v Comstar - Should be an action packed match. Both teams are missing a few players but I think that Elven Bullshit + inducement cash will get me through. 3-2 IainC. Actual result 2-1 Comstar

Division 2:
AndyDavo v Megrim - the paintrain is rolling over the Vampires today. Other opponents will be hoping that Megrim gets some good hits in but the result shouldn't be in doubt. 3-0 AndyDavo. Actual result: 4-0 AndyDavo
Luckton v Lamaros - Lamaros knows what he's doing and should be able to play around the Halflings. The huge level of inducements will wreak havoc in his plans though so I expect he won't be happy after the game. He'll still win though. 3-0 Lamaros. Actual result: 2-0 Lamaros
Falconeer v Avaia - Avaia's dark horse Nurgle team are fresh from a big win and will be looking for a firmer hold on the ladder. Falc will choke and Avaia will snatch victory. 2-1 Avaia. Actual result: 2-0 Falconeer
Reborne v Haemish - a game that should be Haemish's to lose. Ogres are always spoilers though so I expect a lot of crippled rats afterwards. 3-1 Haemish. Actual result: 1-0 Haemish

Division 3:
ICE v Kailas - Bottom table dustoff. Elves to win on account of Goblin unreliability. 4-2 ICE. Actual result: 3-0 ICE
Ginaz v Ulysees - Next lowest teams also face off in an all Lizard affair. Ginaz has the better team but I think Ulysees will put up a good fight. 2-2 draw. Actual result: 2-1 Ulysees
Strazos v Krummi - A million gold in inducements is going to make this an interesting game to watch. However I don't expect the veteran Norse team to be too stretched. 2-1 Strazos. Actual result: 2-0 Strazos
Teleku v Ramas - Another Norse v Elf matchup, this time the teams are far more equal and it should be the game of the day. Hard fought and somewhat Pyrrhic win for the Elves. 3-2 Teleku. Actual result: 3-1 Ramas

Division 4:
Cancklebiter v Bann - The only humans in the league face the only Undead. Bann has the experience and it will probably count here. 2-1 Bann. Actual result: 2-0 Bann
Drogg v SirT - SirT got to see the winners' circle last week but he's about to find out what an experienced lizard team does to rookie Dwarfs. 3-0 Drogg. Actual result: Match not played, tie awarded by Commissioner.
Ruvaldt v Brocktoon - I think Ruvaldt's experience as a coach along with a Chaos team that's starting to develop into a real menace will take the day over the Goblins. 2-1 Ruvaldt. Actual result: 2-1 Ruvaldt
Catfud v Ezrast - This one won't be pretty. Elven bullshit will put some numbers on the board for Ezrast until Catfud retires enough of them to comfortably retake the lead. 3-2 Catfud. Actual result: 2-1 Catfud

10/16 correct results and 1 score predicted exactly.

[Sjofn]

My goal is a 1-0 loss, but I am thinking 2-0 loss. And half my team dead.

Fuck, I really don't want to play Ingmar. Can I forfeit? 

[Strazos]

At this point, I'm not even sure if there's a point for me to limit inducements...

[AndyDavo]

Division 1:
Celer v Carnifex - Celer has the team to stop the lizards but i think the sheer amount of block/guard on a lizard team is going to be too much for him to handle. 2-1 lizards
Ingmar v Sjofn - Most horrible match up of the day. If they didnt live together (and some say they may not after this game!) i would predict 4-0 but i think the dwarves will go easy here, 2-0 Ingmar
Proudft v Paelos - Rookie str4 vs experienced str5, this can only go one way, and not in the direction of the chaos. Proudft 1-0.
IainC v Comstar - The girls are not the team they once were, can they hold off the elven bullshit with no tackle? I think it's a big ask, really could go either way but i think the inducements will give the elves the lead. 3-2 IainC

Division 2:
AndyDavo v Megrim - What i hope to be the Vamps hardest challenge, i would hope to win this, aiming to win by a margin of 2. 2-0 me.
Luckton v Lamaros - With the ratz only tackle out AND no mighty blow on team Luckton may actually pose a problem here, but the ratz coach is easily good enough to win. 2-0 ratz
Falconeer v Avaia - Falc's got on paper the better TV but on closer inspectio untill he removes ALL his AV6 players he's just going to be trying to push piss uphill with this current squad. Shock result of the day 2-1 nurgle.
Reborne v Haemish - Heam to win (as long as he moves stuff in the right order - which i am 100% sure he will) only question is what sort of team he will have left afterwards. They were bulletbroof last week, can this continue?

Division 3:
ICE v Kailas - Icecream had a season defining game last week, sadly not in a good way, but he has the perfect opposition to build SPPS this week. 4-0 ICEMAN (and the wardancer to get 10spps from cas)
Ginaz v Ulysees - decent lizards vs not so decent lizards. A lizard mirror is my idea of hell, but one side has a wizard, i think this will be the defining moment, 1-1
Strazos v Krummi - elf killer norse vs rookie elves, its not a question of what the score will be, more a question of will he clear the pitch?! 3-0 norse.
Teleku v Ramas - another elf killer norse vs elves affair, this time the elves stand half a chance. teleku to win by racing up the score then getting pitch cleared. 3-2 elven bullshit.

Division 4:
Cancklebiter v Bann - The undead are going to  find a different class of opponent this week, and get hurt, 2-1 humans
Drogg v SirT - SirT has had his first taste of victory, but i think he will have to wait till next week to see it again. Drogg 2-0
Ruvaldt v Brocktoon - The only thing the goblins have on their side is the total lack of tackle against them. still going to go the way of the chaos thou, 2-0
Catfud v Ezrast - Another killer team vs rookies, this could be painful. 3-0 Catfud.

[Sjofn]

Eh, Andy, while I have no doubt Ingmar will grind me into a pulp (and seriously, knock it off with the "lol Ingmar will be nice to his wife" shit), I'm pretty sure he couldn't beat me 4-0 with his dwarves. I'm not THAT shitty, and Ingmar likes to proceed in a dignified, orderly fashion down the field.


Of course now Ingmar will take that as a challenge. 

[Paelos]

Ingmar doesn't move enough to go 4-0 unless you start throwing.

[AndyDavo]

Well what i meant was that by the second half you wouldnt have any players left, so he could score 2 or 3 with little to no resistance.

[Sjofn]

That makes more sense! He'd probably waste a few turns whining at me that he feels bad, though.  

[Strazos]

Because Falc hasn't made a day 3 thread yet -

Krummi, let me know when you can play. I'm EST timezone. It'd be nice to get this done ASAP, as after this week my time may get pretty sketchy.

[Comstar]

Division 1:
Celer v Carnifex - Lizards squash elves, but after some elf bullshit. 3-2.
Ingmar v Sjofn - Dwarves vs Norse? 2-1 to the Dwarves and the Norse end the game half dead. The other half are already dead.
Proudft v Paelos - P 2 TD ovsr P 1 TD. Which is which I leave up to the reader.
IainC v Comstar - A walking wounded Amazon team with no tackle vs a wizard and probably a star player too. My monies on the Elves.

[Llyse]

Division 1:
Celer v Carnifex - A solid standard 2-1 grind for the relocated Carnifex Actual result: 1-1 draw from Ringer extraordinaire
Ingmar v Sjofn - Surprisingly a close match but a solid, 2-1 win to Ingmar Actual result: 1-1 draw, so close
Proudft v Paelos - Battle of the Ps goes to the Foot but still a lively match. Proudft 2-1. Actual result: 2-0 Proud
IainC v Comstar - 2-2 Draw, one of the matches of the round! Actual result 2-1 Comstar otherwise Iain would have won it

Division 2:
AndyDavo v Megrim - Complete victory to the champs, 2-0 Andy Actual result: 4-0 Andy
Luckton v Lamaros - Sadly Luckton no win yet... 2-0 Lamaros Actual result: 2-0 Lamaros, on the dot!
Falconeer v Avaia - I believe in the Commish! 2-1 Feminists   Actual result: 2-1 Falc
Reborne v Haemish - 2-1 to Haemish   Actual result: 1-0 Haemish

Division 3:
ICE v Kailas - This match will reignite Ice's desire to compete, 3-0 Icey   Actual result: 3-0 Ice
Ginaz v Ulysees - Going with Ulysees just because of the name 2-1 Ulysees Actual result: 2-1 Ulysees
Strazos v Krummi - 2-1 norse, Come on Krummi score 1 for the little guy!   Actual result: 2-0 Straz
Teleku v Ramas - 3-1 Woodies, Teleku to lose another WD   Forfeit result after 1-1 at halftime?!  

Division 4:
Cancklebiter v Bann - Both good coaches but, 2-1 to Bann   Actual result: 2-0 Bann
Drogg v SirT - Drogg to bounce back from a close match. Drogg 2-0
Ruvaldt v Brocktoon - Please kill Milliard Modern, 2-0 Ruvaldt Actual result: 2-1 Ruvaldt
Catfud v Ezrast - 2-1 to me, should be close due to the insane amount of indcuements   Actual result: 2-1 Llyse

So far looking pretty good with 11/15 with 5 exact scores!  

[luckton]

I have a good feeling about this Day.  With some star power and inducements back on my side, I think I can manage to at least get one TD 

[lamaros]

Predictions! Predictions! Get yer predictions! Best predictions in the league! Make yerself some money at the bookie!

Following up 10/14 from the first day with 12/16 on the second, we are currently running at 73%, with 100% in Division TWO and 87% in Division FOUR! Can the title as the league's best critic continue in day THREE?

Division 1:

Ingmar has taken early calls of group favourite in his stride and stands on top, with Paelos also matching predictions and holding up the table. Carnifex might have surprised so far, but all the games ahead are going to test him a lot more. IainC is also well placed to make the playoffs at this early stage, but nearly everyone still has a good reason to believe. Paelos will miss and Sjofn and Celer also don't make my playoff group, but the fourth spot will be hotly contested.

Celer v Carnifex - Lizards are on a high after the last round, and will follow up with another win.
Ingmar v Sjofn - No mercy from Ingmar in a brutal victory.
Proudft v Paelos - The Tomb strikes back in game day three, with Proudft getting a win and some heavy hits in.
IainC v Comstar - Time to look at the teams: Comstar is down to 10 players, and both level 5 stars are out! IainC has 9 players, but both 'dancers are in! Elf v Elf-wannabes. This is a hard one to call with Comstar's slight skill advantage shadowed by IainC's team. I'm giving Comstar the nod.

Division 2:

While division two is quite fun, it has lost its naivety after the first two rounds. Everyone knew Andy and Lamaros were going to challenge, but Reborne's hopes as and outside change have been swiftly dashed, and Haem's team has only bones left. The only question that remains is who will miss out: will Megrim's Vampires fall apart after a soft opening draw? Will Falc's bloated girls manage to gather themselves for another long season? Or will Avaia's Nurgle grind their way home?

AndyDavo v Megrim - This game could end the Vampire's season. Megrim is running low on players and cash, and losing any Vamps to Andy's '+STR Bullshit of Doom' could put a big nail in. Only 4 Thralls without loner and two players with block means a very hard time indeed. Megrim's inducements will be fun to play with, but Andy will still win.
Luckton v Lamaros - 760 TV difference means a chef and Deeproot, but the halflings will need more than that. Without my tackle player I will just be trying to run up a big score.
Falconeer v Avaia - Falc's team is getting out of hand, but Avaia's is struggling to grow fast enough. This might very well be the game for a finals spot, unless Megrim's side falls apart. Very hard to pick, so I'm going with a draw.
Reborne v Haemish - Unless Haem can get his GRs to last against huge odds he wont win this. Lots of inducements aren't that great for Skaven, because we have no good star players, plus Haem doesn't get as many as it first looks. I think Reborne will kill off Haem's side and win the game, giving him false hope for the finals.

Division 3:

The early sorting here has been decisive. The top three teams will make it through, and, unless he is destroyed by Ramas in round four, Ice Cream will bounce back from a tough start and take the other spot.

ICE v Kailas - Tackle/MB 'dancer V Looney. First hit wins. Expecting Ice to sneak a win as no inducements is bad news for Goblins.
Ginaz v Ulysees - Tough game to pick. Ginaz has the better side, but Ulysees has the better form. With a wizard I'm picking Ulysees to draw the game. {Should learn my lesson here, always go with form.}
Strazos v Krummi - No good having inducements if you don't have a side. Straz has burnt me enough; I'm backing him to win easily.
Teleku v Ramas - The first real test for Teleku after a soft opening. His team is in flawless condition, but probably won't be at the end of the game. I'm actually going to tip a draw. The norse will surprise, but you can't stop elven bullshit when you're against a team like Tele's.

Division 4:

At first glance this looks to be a tightly contested group, but the current table is deceptive. Llyse's early games against other challengers Ruvaldt and Drogg have thrown things out, but they will return to expectations over the coming rounds. Drogg, Bann and Cancklebiter are fighting it out for the last two spots between them.

Cancklebiter v Bann - The Dandies have a nice roster now, and a decent start to the year. I think they'll win again, even though the Undead look like they know what they're doing. Tough game to pick.
Drogg v SirT - Only 10 players this round for Drogg so it could be interesting. I don't think SirT has enough experience with his side to take advantage though.
Ruvaldt v Brocktoon - Goblins v Chaos is not a good time for Goblins. An early hit on Millard could make the game interesting, but Ruvaldt has earnt the right to be favourite and I expect a win. {Millard down early and game on! But still Chaos wins! 10/10 for this prediction!}
Catfud v Ezrast - No reason to think Ezrast's decimated team will get close to a win I'm afraid.

[Kail]

ICE v Kailas - Tackle/MB 'dancer V Looney. First hit wins. Expecting Ice to sneak a win as no inducements is bad news for Goblins.

It's worse than that; I have seven players sitting out this game, I believe, including all my secret weapons.  My entire team is going to be linegoblins and trolls.  This is not going to be pretty.

[lamaros]

ICE v Kailas - Tackle/MB 'dancer V Looney. First hit wins. Expecting Ice to sneak a win as no inducements is bad news for Goblins.

It's worse than that; I have seven players sitting out this game, I believe, including all my secret weapons.  My entire team is going to be linegoblins and trolls.  This is not going to be pretty.

According to the game you're just missing the Fanatic and one Goblin. You still have looney, pogoer and bomber, as well as one skillup to add.

[Scadente]

I'll predict my own game:

After beating Strazos with my orcs in S3, it's his time for revenge now:

3 - 0 Strazos

6 Elves injured.
5 Elves KO'ed.
1 Dead Star-Player.

1 Norse KO'ed.

I'm looking forward to this slaughter 

[Ruvaldt]

Had a tough second week.  My cumulative predictions: 19 - 12 - 1

Division 1:
Celer v Carnifex - Carnifex 2 - 2 - Looks like a draw to me, but I have a feeling Carnifex will bust some heads and hurt Celer's performance in the following game.
Ingmar v Sjofn - Ingmar 2 - 0 - It's a tough one for Sjofn; I think Ingmar will continue his reign of terror in this division.
Proudft v Paelos - Proudft 1 - 0 - Proudft wins.  Paelos has a shot here, especially if it rains, but I don't think he has the tools to work around the Proudft's STR advantage.
IainC v Comstar - IainC 3 - 1 - I'm betting on IainC, largely due to Comstar's stars sitting the game out.

Division 2:
AndyDavo v Megrim - 2 - 0 AndyDavo - Hard to imagine this game going another way.  Andy will probably wreck quite a few thralls on his way to two TDs.
Luckton v Lamaros - 4 - 1 Lamaros - Lamaros will waltz over Luckton's Halflings, but I bet, due to inducements, Luckton can score a TD.
Falconeer v Avaia - 2 - 1 Avaia - Avaia gets tons of sweet inducements to beat up a team and wrack up some serious SPPs to build his new team.
Reborne v Haemish - 1 - 1 Draw - This game is a wash.  I would give it to Haem, but he's still looking beaten up from that inaugural game.

Division 3:
ICE v Kailas - 2 - 1 ICE - Kailas will score, but ICE will have the better of him in this match.
Ginaz v Ulysees - 2 - 1 Ginaz - Ginaz has built a good team, and that experience should win the game.
Strazos v Krummi - 2 - 1 Strazos - It's Strazos' to lose, but Krummi will probably make him pay for it.
Teleku v Ramas - 3 - 1 Teleku - Teleku will continue to score at will in this match, which should be a lot of fun to watch.

Division 4:
Cancklebiter v Bann - 1 - 1 Draw - Cancklebiter is a good coach who will use his massive inducements well.  I'm betting neither team will get a lot of offensive traction though and we'll end up with a draw.
Drogg v SirT - 2 - 0 Drogg - Drogg is hurting right now after his loss against Llyse, but his skinks should be able to run circles around SirT's dwarves.
Ruvaldt v Brocktoon - 50 - 1 Ruvaldt - I will win in a stupendous fashion, for the first time in history, scoring multiple TDs in the same turn!
Catfud v Ezrast - 2 - 1 Llyse - Bloody match for Ezrast and another victory for a resurgent Llyse.

[Llyse]

Because I'm an addict and armchair warrior...

With almost all Day 3 games played all 4 divisions are shaping up quite nicely with each division having favourites but a solid 3/4 contenders for the last 2 spots.

Battletech Division:

Ingmar still has top seed secured even with his tie to Sjofn. However Carnifex ties him on points now but can he match against the Beardroller?!
Meanwhile Comstar has shown his competitiveness still and vies with proudft and IainC for the remaning two playoff spots!

Cthulhu Division:

Andy and Lamaros are on top of course but now that Megrim's lost and Avaia and Falc have both won we have another 3 fighting for 2 slots. Fresh wampires, old feminists or slimy nurgles?!

Stormbringer Division:

With Teleku's possible forfeit loss and Strazs' inexorable man train of norse, Ramas lingering in the shadows we have the most interesting fight for the playoffs! That's not even mentioning Ulysees with his strong Lizard showing and Ice's bloodied elves but skilled new team who will remain?!

Twilight 2000:

Lamaros' shortsighted statement of the weakest division has already been proven wrong with Ruvaldt's killer ex-prez goats and Bann's hardhitting humans performances. Not too mention the perennial chokers Alive not Dead, however we still have Drogg's veteran Huhnqua Huhnqua, and new Dark horse undead fighting for the last spot. SirT could also be in it if he draws with Drogg's partially burning skinks  

So overall we have some idea of the likely playoff contenders just before the midway point but the exact placings are still in flux and that's way it should be!