Jeff Kelly
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Posts: 6921
I'm an apathetic, hedonistic, utilitarian, nihilistic existentialist.
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My 80 year old uncle is currently in a cancer ward after a tumor in his lung was removed, he suffers from a lung infection and pneumonia as complications from the operation. (Not Covid related). Pneumonia at this age is usually not a good sign, it’s usually an early indicator for multiple organ failure and death.
He probably doesn’t have a lot of time left and I’ll not be able to visit him. Or even attend his funeral if it came to him dying.
We didn’t have the best relationship but damn it sucks regardless. Thanks to this whole mess I won’t even be able to be with my family and my Dad (who is my uncle’s brother) during all of this.
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jgsugden
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Posts: 3888
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The site is from The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). It is is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington. I believe them to be independent and trying to project things as best they can. There predictions have Deaths per Day dropping dramatically in California very soon. That'll be a big indicator of how reasonable these estimates are. You'll notice there is a huge range on the number of deaths per day possible for most states. Michigan projects at 124, but the potential range is between 10 and 508. Essentially, their numbers indicate that we're at the point where our isolation strategies should be having an impact on the number of deaths (as deaths occur weeks after infection and it has been several weeks since we took more drastic steps to isolate people). That makes some sense. We may be on a decline at this point. Until we lift the preventative measures and.... boom. …. and Texas. At least my state wasn't the first one to start rebuggering.… and Silicon Valley. We just make technology. Who needs math.
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« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 06:45:50 PM by jgsugden »
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2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
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schild
Administrator
Posts: 60345
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Texas isn't reopening. Read the plan. They're going to allow curbside pickup at retail. We ain't doin shit.
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Trippy
Administrator
Posts: 23626
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Not sure what the point of your title is. The Stanford study confirms what we already know which is that there's a lot of people out there who have had it and didn't know it either cause they never got tested or the test failed to detect it.
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schild
Administrator
Posts: 60345
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I've had a cough for nearly 2 weeks now.
It's not corona, but I really badly wish it was. Not even bothering getting tested because it's such a wet cough. Getting tested would *increase* my exposure.
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eldaec
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11843
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Plus if you get tested positive there is jack shit they can do about it.
I've been in the same position for the last couple of weeks, but then last few of days suddenly much worse, and my son suddenly had cough day 1, fever day 2, and now apparently fine. So... maybe... no clue really.
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"People will not assume that what they read on the internet is trustworthy or that it carries any particular assurance or accuracy" - Lord Leveson "Hyperbole is a cancer" - Lakov Sanite
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jgsugden
Terracotta Army
Posts: 3888
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Texas isn't reopening. Read the plan. They're going to allow curbside pickup at retail. We ain't doin shit.
I did. Mostly about the lack of testing, honestly. However, the two key words jumped out: "Incremental steps" Texas will keep expanding action until they see the resurgence.
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2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
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slog
Terracotta Army
Posts: 8232
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Some positive news on the re-infection reporting https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/south-korea-coronavirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html The KCDC has re-investigated three cases from the same family where patients tested positive after recovering, Kwon says.
In each of these cases, scientists tried to incubate the virus but weren't able to -- that told them there was no live virus present. Like many countries, South Korea uses a reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to test for the virus. The RT-PCR test works by finding evidence of a virus's genetic information -- or RNA -- in a sample taken from the patient. According to Kwon, these tests may still be picking up parts of the RNA even after the person has recovered because the tests are so sensitive.
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Friends don't let Friends vote for Boomers
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schild
Administrator
Posts: 60345
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Texas isn't reopening. Read the plan. They're going to allow curbside pickup at retail. We ain't doin shit.
I did. Mostly about the lack of testing, honestly. However, the two key words jumped out: "Incremental steps" Texas will keep expanding action until they see the resurgence. That requires the cities to play ball (spoiler: we won't)
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schild
Administrator
Posts: 60345
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Plus if you get tested positive there is jack shit they can do about it.
I've been in the same position for the last couple of weeks, but then last few of days suddenly much worse, and my son suddenly had cough day 1, fever day 2, and now apparently fine. So... maybe... no clue really.
Yeah, we had laryngitis or some bullshit come through the house (our symptoms were classic), but it has lasted longer than normal. Granted we didn't see a doctor or anything and are just letting it play out because we know it's functionally harmless. But man, having a cough for 2 weeks during Pangolin Lung Season is trash.
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Trippy
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Posts: 23626
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eldaec
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Posts: 11843
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Mild symptoms are indistinguishable from a regular cold though, so... I guess we know nothing.
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"People will not assume that what they read on the internet is trustworthy or that it carries any particular assurance or accuracy" - Lord Leveson "Hyperbole is a cancer" - Lakov Sanite
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schild
Administrator
Posts: 60345
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Mild symptoms are indistinguishable from a regular cold though, so... I guess we know nothing.
And this is why my shortly gonna hit 2 week cough makes me really hope it's corona. I'm not buying this "you don't get immunity" thing until it's proven without a doubt.
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Brolan
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Posts: 1395
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If your body can't fight off the virus eventually then you would die from it, right? So you must be building some form of immunity once you are infected.
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jgsugden
Terracotta Army
Posts: 3888
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There are a lot of angles to reinfection. One would be whether the antibodies remain strong enough in the system to fight it off the next time. Another would be if the virus tweaks itself fast enough that the antibodies you develop to fight it off in April are well suited to fight off the version you encounter in September. There are a bunch of other angles. You can find some online scholarly works on it (as opposed to the crap the media is releasing for clickbait).
There are a lot of stories out there from people that got this thing. Some of them feature otherwise healthy people in their 30s and 40s that had it for a few weeks and barely showed any symptoms - and then were gone in a week. It is a small percentage - but if you've played enough games, you know the really improbably turns up every once in a while. You don't want to play games with this virus. It may take a while to really get going in your lungs, but if your body just happens to have trouble fighting it off (which can happen to anyone) when it is in your lungs, you're looking at major permanent lung damage at best (shortening your life span and quality of life dramatically), and a week long painful descent into death at the other end of things.
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2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
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Trippy
Administrator
Posts: 23626
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Trippy
Administrator
Posts: 23626
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slog
Terracotta Army
Posts: 8232
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Maybe we get a vaccine for the common cold after all this is done.
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Friends don't let Friends vote for Boomers
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Ashamanchill
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Posts: 2274
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There's like a hundred viruses associated with the common cold.
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A poster signed by Richard Garriot, Brad McQuaid, Marc Jacobs and SmerricK Dart. Of course it would arrive a couple years late, missing letters and a picture but it would be epic none the less. -Tmon
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Cyrrex
Terracotta Army
Posts: 10603
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There's like a hundred viruses associated with the common cold.
Obviously he means the REALLY COMMON cold.
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"...maybe if you cleaned the piss out of the sunny d bottles under your desks and returned em, you could upgrade you vid cards, fucken lusers.." - Grunk
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slog
Terracotta Army
Posts: 8232
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There's like a hundred viruses associated with the common cold.
Sorry for looking for something positive.
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Friends don't let Friends vote for Boomers
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Sky
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Posts: 32117
I love my TV an' hug my TV an' call it 'George'.
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More like we'll now have Nyquil for covid19. The money is not in the cure, we live in a capitalist world. Now shut up and enter your payment info.
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slog
Terracotta Army
Posts: 8232
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More like we'll now have Nyquil for covid19. The money is not in the cure, we live in a capitalist world. Now shut up and enter your payment info.
If we get a vaccine for Covid-19 it will be the first vaccine for a Coronavirus and there would be tons of money for an annual common cold vaccine :)
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Friends don't let Friends vote for Boomers
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Trippy
Administrator
Posts: 23626
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The coronaviruses that cause the common cold do account for a decent chunk of the infections, perhaps up to a 1/3rd. So if developing vaccines for coronaviruses becomes easier and (much) cheaper after all of this then perhaps somebody will make a vaccine for the 4 coronaviruses that cause the common cold. Edit: sauces https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.htmlCommon human coronaviruses, including types 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1, usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3416289/Epidemiological studies suggest that HCoVs account for 15 to 30% of common colds
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« Last Edit: May 01, 2020, 12:08:22 PM by Trippy »
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Khaldun
Terracotta Army
Posts: 15163
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Yeah, I was pretty sure that rhinoviruses are most of what we call "the common cold".
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Salamok
Terracotta Army
Posts: 2803
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Texas isn't reopening. Read the plan. They're going to allow curbside pickup at retail. We ain't doin shit.
Reopening the Texas Economy tm
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Salamok
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Posts: 2803
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Polysorbate80
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Posts: 2044
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« Last Edit: November 14, 2020, 04:22:19 AM by Polysorbate80 »
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“Why the fuck would you ... ?” is like 80% of the conversation with Poly — Chimpy
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NowhereMan
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Posts: 7353
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One of the researchers who worked on that does regular Instagram stories on stuff (@gutterkingbaby) and is well worth a follow. Hell might be worth creating an instagram account. She made the point that this whole study was funded by the NIH and if it shows positive outcomes keep a close on eye on Gilead's pricing for Remdesivir because they saved a ton of R&D costs not having to run the trial themselves and had the whole process massively streamlined for them by the US government.
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"Look at my car. Do you think that was bought with the earnest love of geeks?" - HaemishM
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Sky
Terracotta Army
Posts: 32117
I love my TV an' hug my TV an' call it 'George'.
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Sure. “Sorting all that out, obviously, would be important,” he said. “But I just cannot imagine that this has a real impact on patients taking Robitussin.”
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Trippy
Administrator
Posts: 23626
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One of the researchers who worked on that does regular Instagram stories on stuff (@gutterkingbaby) and is well worth a follow. Hell might be worth creating an instagram account. She made the point that this whole study was funded by the NIH and if it shows positive outcomes keep a close on eye on Gilead's pricing for Remdesivir because they saved a ton of R&D costs not having to run the trial themselves and had the whole process massively streamlined for them by the US government. Regardless of whether or not the NIH is helping funding these trials, Gilead will be under tremendous pressure to keep pricing "reasonable" if it turns out to be an effective treatment and better than the other alternatives being trialed. I.e. if Gilead tried to price it for maximum profits even the Republicans in Congress would be forced to do something about that. However I put reasonable in quotes cause it turns out that remdesivir is (currently) not easy to make so it may still be an expensive drug even "at cost". For an amusing read on what it takes to synthesize remdesivir check out: OMG! We Made One Gram Of Remdesivir!
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Hawkbit
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Posts: 5531
Like a Klansman in the ghetto.
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MahrinSkel
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Posts: 10858
When she crossed over, she was just a ship. But when she came back... she was bullshit!
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I was a street urchin in Seattle 35 years ago. Even at 3-4 o'clock, there were always people about. --Dave
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--Signature Unclear
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Khaldun
Terracotta Army
Posts: 15163
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That remdesvir article was great, thank you for linking it.
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Trippy
Administrator
Posts: 23626
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Some recent information regarding Vitamin D and COVID-19. A retrospective study done in Indonesia[1] (presumably non-peer reviewed) concluded that those studied with serum 25(OH)D (Vitamin D in the blood) of <=29 ng/ml had significantly higher death rates (7x - 10x) than those with >30 ng/ml. Note that since this wasn't a randomized double blind placebo controlled trial this is only correlation that's being shown here. However there is a hypothesis that was recently proposed in a non-peer reviewed study[2] that Vitamin D may be suppressing the cytokine storm associated with more severe COVID-19 cases. This study used CRP levels as a proxy for Vitamin D levels since Vitamin D blood level measurements were unavailable so it's even more indirect. Vitamin D plays an important part in our immune system[3] and has been shown in RDBPCTs to reduce the rates of acute respiratory tract infections among those with low levels of Vitamin D[4] so it wouldn't surprise me if it's shown that it has an effect(s) on COVID-19 as well. Personally I've been taking a Vitamin D3 supplement daily since mid-2017 when I stopped going out regularly in the daytime so hopefully that's offering at least some protection. On average each additional 100 IU of Vitamin D3 will raise serum 25(OH)D by 1 ng/ml[5] so 2500 IU (a common supplement dosage amount here in the US) a day should may keep you above 30 ng/ml assuming a minimal amount being generated from some sunlight exposure or food sources. However Vitamin D is a hormone and it's fat soluble (so you should take supplements with some fat) so excess amounts will stick around in your body unlike water-soluble vitamins like Vitamin C that you pee out so more is not necessarily better. In fact 25(OH)D >60 ng/ml may be associated with adverse effects[6] and even higher levels can be toxic. Also you should not be taking medical advice from strangers on the Internet. [1] Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality and Vitamin D: An Indonesian Study[2] The Possible Role of Vitamin D in Suppressing Cytokine Storm and Associated Mortality in COVID-19 Patients[3] Vitamin D and respiratory health[4] Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory tract infections: systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data[5] Vitamin D in health and disease[6] Health Risks from Excessive Vitamin D
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« Last Edit: May 05, 2020, 10:56:37 PM by Trippy »
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