Will DDO survive the April attrition as free months expire?

[Murgos]

See? Im arguing with people who argue for the sake of argument! They have NO idea what the hell they are talking about. Based on reading past threads I thought this forum was above such buffonery.

There is no there there.

So far your argument has been:

Don't look at these numbers because you can't.

and

11k subs new forum accounts implicitly prooves < 30k box sales.

Followed by a lot of whining.  I'm not sure why you don't see where some people around here don't feel particularly inclined to take your word as gospel.

Slog posted numbers that he got from a purported dev on an IRC channel, the people here accept those number as what they are, highly dubious and slightly inflated sounding.

You are posting an Appeal To Authority.  Go look it up, it's under logical fallacies.

He himself said it, indeed.

[Trippy]

I actually smell teli idiot here, given the first post came about 10 minutes after his ban.

Unlikely since Tele is claiming DDO is the greatest thing since sliced bread (or at least AC1) because, you know, it supports the Z-axis and stuff. Broughden on the other hand is hell bent on proving DDO is the greatest failure in MMO history (already disproven by the launch of AA), or something. I'm actually not clear what his point is.

[voblat]

Well YOU claimed you knew
A) When Atari would add profit from sale of DDO into their fiscal reports
B) How they would earn profit from the DDO title.
Obviously I did need to educate you on those two subjects, since you originally tried to discredit my knowledge of the software market based on your business experience with in the LSE.

As far as release of DDO not effecting their stock price...
IF DDO had been a successful title, you do admit it would have possibly boosted their 2006 Fiscal Year results (of course the success or lack of other titles would also contribute)? However, Atari took a quarterly loss and an annual Fiscal Year loss. Therefore their stock price sunk even lower.

I do know when the prices would be taken into consideration in the stock price, when the launch was announced, however long ago that was, a year ago. You are confusing the stock price with ther financial reports, because you can only google search financial reports I would summise, the intricacies of share price fluctuation actually needs some knowledge to follow.

And please try to keep up. Atari are on the virge of bacruptcy, DDO is a niche game.
Even exceeding all sales expectations DDO would not make any dent on the financial situation Atari currently sit at.

Therefore it would not change the current outlook of share value.

In other words, no, even selling 300k boxes (raising what, $3 mill) would not have changed the share price as the company stands right now, they are -much- to far in the shit for investors to consider them on the basis of a few box sales of a niche game in a niche genre.

[Broughden]

Its not my fault I have to educate forum readers on
A) Market research companies within the software gaming industry
B) How and when profits by game software publshing companies are reported
C) Argue against someone who says "X" and yet Im the only one who supposedly has to prove "X" isnt true. NO ONE else has called him on "X".
This might actaully be a better conversation or debate if I didnt have to continue to prove BASIC FACTS that people knowledgable of the industry should know!

So, are all of the forum posters  more ignorant than you? if not, what percentage?

Also, you should have dropped C and made it a different issue. It doesn't fit with your established trolling structure.

Im not trolling! I was SIMPLY trying to debate or argue retail sales figures with Schlog or what ever the hell his name was....when every arm chair quarterback on this board decided to jump into the fray and defend him for some reason.

And YES I obviously know more about the gaming industry then people who dont know what NPD is or how sales are reported by publishers with in the industry.

As for trolling that would be EVERY poster who doesnt know diddly squat about the industry and is simply arguing with me for the sake of doing so. Thats the definition of a troll.

[sigil]

LOL yes thats it Im a bot.

If you're trying to have a conversation, acting like a condescending schmuck is probably a bad move to get people to not tune you out.

Just a bit of advice, Twiki.

[Broughden]

See? Im arguing with people who argue for the sake of argument! They have NO idea what the hell they are talking about. Based on reading past threads I thought this forum was above such buffonery.

There is no there there.

So far your argument has been:

Don't look at these numbers because you can't.

and

11k subs new forum accounts implicitly prooves < 30k box sales.

Followed by a lot of whining.  I'm not sure why you don't see where some people around here don't feel particularly inclined to take your word as gospel.

Slog posted numbers that he got from a purported dev on an IRC channel, the people here accept those number as what they are, highly dubious and slightly inflated sounding.

You are posting an Appeal To Authority.  Go look it up, it's under logical fallacies.

He himself said it, indeed.

Morgus,

I have also had people post crap who have no idea what NPD is. See my former post to you as an example.
I have had Voblat claim because he supposedly works on the LSE he knows more about industry fiscal reports than I do...which I have proved his claims wrong.
In essence I have had people attack EVERYTHING I have said here.

I admit that not being able to post the NPD is NOT fair....however I have been truthful about EVERYTHING ELSE and posted open public information verifying this. So why would I lie about the NPD data?

Im done with this thread. Its like trying to argue physics with bush tribesmen.

[Miasma]

At this point I'm pretty sure no one really cares what the numbers are, people are just displeased that you keep coming up with arbitrary, unproven ones.  Especially since whatever numbers you could come up with would be limited to box sales, only people at Turbine actually know what their active subscription number is.

I think that everyone knows DDO was not a big hit.  A few people here and many on the official forums have tried to move the goalposts to fit their low numbers and that seems mildly absurd.  They did not go through all the trouble involved with developing an MMO based on a major license to intentionally make a niche game with 40,000 subscriptions.  I don't actually have much of anything against DDO, I'm sure that if you have a set group of friends that you like to get together with a few times a week that it's a great game, but that wasn't what they were aiming for.

I actually smell teli idiot here, given the first post came about 10 minutes after his ban.

I know his name (Broughden) from reading the DDO forums to get my daily fix of disillusioned fanboi.  He really doesn't like the game and yet felt the need to rack up over 500 posts in less than two months.

As far as NPD is concerned I only made fun of them due to their poorly chosen name.

[HaemishM]

You know Im not really understanding this.  

A) Am I going to release NPD data which they charge for on an open forum and risk being reprimanded at work or worse have my company's account yanked from NPD? No.  But the information is their for any who want to have it.

B) Given the above problem have I tried to provide the best circumstantial evidence I can? Yes through stock reports and financial analysis.

C) Meanwhile Slog has posted nothing more than an IRC chat log he purports to include testimony from a Dev at Turbine.

Yet Im the one getting all the shit here....hmmmm. BTW I love my fun new forum nickname!

You are both wrong until you can actually post numbers from a credible source that no one here has to pay for.

No, "I saw it in a pay for play NPD article" is not evidence. Neither is share price. Neither is an IRC log.

NEITHER OF YOU CAN PROVE ANYTHING YOU SAY, AND NEITHER CAN I. NOW SHUT YOUR FESTERING GOB, YOU TIT.

[Broughden]

You know Im not really understanding this.  

A) Am I going to release NPD data which they charge for on an open forum and risk being reprimanded at work or worse have my company's account yanked from NPD? No.  But the information is their for any who want to have it.

B) Given the above problem have I tried to provide the best circumstantial evidence I can? Yes through stock reports and financial analysis.

C) Meanwhile Slog has posted nothing more than an IRC chat log he purports to include testimony from a Dev at Turbine.

Yet Im the one getting all the shit here....hmmmm. BTW I love my fun new forum nickname!

You are both wrong until you can actually post numbers from a credible source that no one here has to pay for.

No, "I saw it in a pay for play NPD article" is not evidence. Neither is share price. Neither is an IRC log.

NEITHER OF YOU CAN PROVE ANYTHING YOU SAY, AND NEITHER CAN I. NOW SHUT YOUR FESTERING GOB, YOU TIT.

As I said two posts up Im done with this thread.
BTW I love the big red all capital letters. 

[Murgos]

Being done with a thread implies that you stop posting in it.

[sigil]

Never fuck with an admin.

Another simple rule to live by.

Besides, Haemish is just stating the obvious for you. You should thank him. 

With a "What Murgos said", for good measure.

[shiznitz]

I actually smell teli idiot here, given the first post came about 10 minutes after his ban.

Is there an updated ban-list somewhere? How do you know he got banned?

[WayAbvPar]

I actually smell teli idiot here, given the first post came about 10 minutes after his ban.

Is there an updated ban-list somewhere? How do you know he got banned?

Check about 1/2 down the first page.

[Arthur_Parker]

Interesting that DDO has made over 100k sales, can you ask if that figure includes Europe?

Arthur,

Slog is the only one making this claim and has yet to post any proof of it. Despite us repeatedly asking him for such.

He quoted a dev to provide proof plus my question was addressed to him.  I have no clue who you are.

Actually he quotes an unknown entity from IRC.

Well the entity is thought to be Devil Mouse a Turbine dev. 

If I was taking notes, slog would be the fourth person I have encountered who believes DDO is not doing that badly while at the same time admits to not playing it.  I didn't seriously expect an answer to my subscription question, though it would be amusing if Turbine's marketing department was now run out of another rant/news site's irc channel.

As for the subscription numbers, Turbine know, Turbine currently are not saying (irc heh).  I don't mind waiting years to have it confirmed DDO didn't sell very well, a quick study of the pc charts tells that story.

DDO is niche and low budget, fine whatever, can't wait to see if LOTRO is also niche & low budget.

[Malathor]

As for the subscription numbers, Turbine know, Turbine currently are not saying (irc heh).  I don't mind waiting years to have it confirmed DDO didn't sell very well, a quick study of the pc charts tells that story.

Hey, who needs box sales anyway when they already got a free trial and a downloadable client? Right?

[Arthur_Parker]

You are both wrong until you can actually post numbers from a credible source that no one here has to pay for.

No, "I saw it in a pay for play NPD article" is not evidence. Neither is share price. Neither is an IRC log.

The only numbers I trust so far are the DDO US official forum account numbers.   Below is the latest, created in the first eight weeks of DDO's release we have:-

1st Week = 11,133
2nd Week =  3,384
3rd Week =  2,496
4th Week =  1,835
5th Week =  1,263
6th Week =  1,372
7th Week =  1,016
8th Week =    721
Total = 23220

Links below just incase anyone wants to double check this information. 

I'm just giving forum account numbers, not stating anything about the numbers of real subscribers, as I currently do not have a clue.  However over 23,000 US forum accounts would seem to indicate over 100k box sales in the US alone is very possible.  Would love to see an accurate current subscriber number but that info can only come from within Turbine.


First DDO user to register, thur 23rf Feb
last user to register, wed 1st march. End of 1st week.
First user, thur 2nd March
Last user, wed 8th March.  End of 2nd week
First user, thur 9th March
Last user, wed 15th March.  End of 3rd week
First user, thur 16th March
Last user, wed 22nd March.  End of 4th week.
First user, thur 23rd March
Last user, wed 29th March.  End of 5th week.
First user, thur 30th March
Last user, wed 5th April.  End of 6th week.
First user, thur 6th April
Last user, wed 12th April.  End of 7th week.
First user, thur 13th April
Last user, wed 19th April.  End of 8th week.

[Pococurante]

Looks like you're capturing (degrading) momentum adequately.  How do you derive this?  Is it feasible to factor in moribund accounts?  Because that's where retention is defined.  Forums are truly a microcosm of fanbase but they still nevertheless capture representation.

[Oban]

Hey, who needs box sales anyway when they already got a free trial and a downloadable client? Right?

Holy crap, less than two months old and there is a seven day free trial already?  Is that a new record? 

Why have a seven day trial when people can, apparently, blow through the content in less than half that time?

This plus the comment about LotR online taking on WoW for a million subscribers really makes one wonder just what they are smoking/eating/drinking/introducing-into-their-rectums.

[Arthur_Parker]

Looks like you're capturing (degrading) momentum adequately.  How do you derive this?  Is it feasible to factor in moribund accounts?  Because that's where retention is defined.  Forums are truly a microcosm of fanbase but they still nevertheless capture representation.

The DDO forums issue each new user a forum account ID number.  These numbers are sequential, so at the time of this post the last new forum account on the DDO boards is shown here http://www.ddo.com/forums/member.php?u=23453

There is a last activity date on each forum account member page, so yes, it would be possible to draw some conclusions on retention if you scripted something to grab the data.   But you couldn't prove much and it does seem slightly excessive (imho) to hit their forums over 23,000 times for the small information reward.

[Azazel]

Never fuck with an admin.

Another simple rule to live by.

Not really. Not here, at least.

Sure, acting like a complete cockmonkey and then throwing it in an admin's face might get you banned, but if you can structure your opinion as decent arguments without being a complete douchehole, then the Admins here will join in the fray without hotting the ban button whenever someone that they don't like says something.

Doesn't mean admins here can admit when they're wrong, but I've witnessed both Schild and Haemish take a written pounding and argue right back in various threads. My first post here was an attack/argument with Schild in response to something he said I disagreed with. Yet I've managed not to be a complete cunt and/or moron, and hence I haven't been banned.

As for Broughden, he may be a spurned fanboi from the Turbine boards, he may be Telemediocrity, he may be The Worm or he may be some or all of the above, but the important thing is that it really doesn't matter. 

[Azazel]

[Every month and week professional industry media outlets report the sales of games on various platforms to include PC, Xbow, Playstation, Gameboy etc etc.

Crossbow is my favourite console.

[raydeen]

You know Im not really understanding this. 

A) Am I going to release NPD data which they charge for on an open forum and risk being reprimanded at work or worse have my company's account yanked from NPD? No.  But the information is their for any who want to have it.

B) Given the above problem have I tried to provide the best circumstantial evidence I can? Yes through stock reports and financial analysis.

C) Meanwhile Slog has posted nothing more than an IRC chat log he purports to include testimony from a Dev at Turbine.

Yet Im the one getting all the shit here....hmmmm. BTW I love my fun new forum nickname!

You are both wrong until you can actually post numbers from a credible source that no one here has to pay for.

No, "I saw it in a pay for play NPD article" is not evidence. Neither is share price. Neither is an IRC log.

NEITHER OF YOU CAN PROVE ANYTHING YOU SAY, AND NEITHER CAN I. NOW SHUT YOUR FESTERING GOB, YOU TIT.

As I said two posts up Im done with this thread.
BTW I love the big red all capital letters. 

:) Argument Clinic FTW! But that was Abuse. You want room 12A, Just along the corridor.

[Phred]

So because I challenge Slog's claim of over 100k units sold retail I have to bear the entire burden of proof while he gets a free pass?
Hmmm wow that seems fair.
As I said I posted where the information can be obtained. Whether you do or not is up to you.

You already seconded slog's claim of 100K units sold, so why don't you just shut the fuck up now? Or can you not add 50K (presales) + 50K (your claim of March sales) together?

Just curious but do you need a forum account to play? Don't the game companies claim like 2-3% of their users actually use the forums?


Because
The 50k presales does not include how many were cancelled (and we all know Ebay and other retailers offering pre-sales were inundated with cancellations.
At best? I think they had maybe 30k actual presales US/Canade wide. WHY do I make this assumption? Because their were ONLY 11k initial forum accounts created within the first week of release.

Well now you are just making shit up too.

Where? The 11k figure is accurate. You can gleen the information from the DDO boards by checking when people activated their forum accounts.

Do people have to register on the forum when they subscrbe? If not, don't most developers claim about 2-5% of their customers participate in forums?

[Lantyssa]

If my impression of the trial is in any way indicative of the rest of the market, I don't see how it will last long.  Movement felt like I was running and turning on a grid.  It was not smooth at all.  Bosses were obliterating me (fighter) and a cleric.  I may try again later, but right now I do not have the motivation to make even day two.

[HaemishM]

Do people have to register on the forum when they subscrbe? If not, don't most developers claim about 2-5% of their customers participate in forums?

I've heard numbers somewhere around 1% of subscribers actually use the forums regularly. 2% who register on the forums might be a decent number. Of course, if the game REQUIRES a forum ID in order to play... that would be bad. Very, very bad.

[Lantyssa]

I solved my movement problems by lowering some of the graphics settings, so at least that improved on my second try.  Required grouping is still a big turn-off.  I am also annoyed at being taken out of sneak with every door opened or lever pulled.  It makes it difficult to actually, you know, sneak up on enemies.

I've heard numbers somewhere around 1% of subscribers actually use the forums regularly. 2% who register on the forums might be a decent number. Of course, if the game REQUIRES a forum ID in order to play... that would be bad. Very, very bad.

It does not require forum registration to play.  Unless it does it automatically the numbers are not of the total population.

[Arthur_Parker]

(irc >100k sales), forum accounts over 23k.  I agree a lot of players will not sign up for forums, but again we are guessing at percentages, 2% would mean over 1 million box sales.

I bet their box sales are not that bad (120-200k worldwide) but the churn is sizeable and stopping them hit AC1 sub figures.  AC1 has been running for years and with the doomcasters hurting sales, I don't see any logical reason for them not to boost about beating AC1 sub numbers unless they just haven't managed to do it.

The 7 day free trial might be an attempt to hit a concurrent user target in addition to grabbing new players but mostly I think the trial is a good idea as nothing will kill a forced grouping game faster than lack of players.

[Morat20]

(irc >100k sales), forum accounts over 23k.  I agree a lot of players will not sign up for forums, but again we are guessing at percentages, 2% would mean over 1 million box sales.

I bet their box sales are not that bad (120-200k worldwide) but the churn is sizeable and stopping them hit AC1 sub figures.  AC1 has been running for years and with the doomcasters hurting sales, I don't see any logical reason for them not to boost about beating AC1 sub numbers unless they just haven't managed to do it.

The 7 day free trial might be an attempt to hit a concurrent user target in addition to grabbing new players but mostly I think the trial is a good idea as nothing will kill a forced grouping game faster than lack of players.

Forums aren't a bad way to guesstimate how box sales are changing, but not a good way to guesstimate box sales. If new forum subs are dropping off, odds are game sales are dropping off. If forum posts are dropping off, odds are sub count is. The only assumption -- which MIGHT be invalid, but's probably a good starting spot -- is that a fairly steady percentage of purchasers register for the forums.

It doesn't matter if that percentage is 2% or 20%, as long as it's relatively steady over the lifespan of the game. (I'm guessing it's not only steady for DDO, but for virtually all games). I wouldn't use it as my only datapoint, but I wouldn't toss it.

[Arthur_Parker]

I fully agree, I'm making a guess of 120k-200k box sales on an irc channel comment and if it was more than 200k there would have been a statement, not the forum numbers.

[Nija]

Forums aren't a bad way to guesstimate how box sales are changing, but not a good way to guesstimate box sales. If new forum subs are dropping off, odds are game sales are dropping off. If forum posts are dropping off, odds are sub count is. The only assumption -- which MIGHT be invalid, but's probably a good starting spot -- is that a fairly steady percentage of purchasers register for the forums.

It doesn't matter if that percentage is 2% or 20%, as long as it's relatively steady over the lifespan of the game. (I'm guessing it's not only steady for DDO, but for virtually all games). I wouldn't use it as my only datapoint, but I wouldn't toss it.

I might be reaching, but the way I see it is that the people who are hyped for the game / buy it on release have a better chance of registering on the forum. People who pick it up further down the road - it might be an impulse buy from Joe Somebody at Best Buy. Even if that's week 2 or 3.

Although there could be a cult movement months down the road (Eve) and guilds will migrate from one game to another, and those guys are just as likely to sign up on the forum as the first weekers.

Can you create a forum account with a 7 day trial account?

[Lantyssa]

Can you create a forum account with a 7 day trial account?

It looks like it will let me.

It asked for my Turbine Account info, and on the next screen shows "DDO Trial Subscription" under available subs, then asks for the usual info.  I'm not willing to hit Submit here, so I'll have to assume they are not filtering the account at this level.

[Morat20]

Forums aren't a bad way to guesstimate how box sales are changing, but not a good way to guesstimate box sales. If new forum subs are dropping off, odds are game sales are dropping off. If forum posts are dropping off, odds are sub count is. The only assumption -- which MIGHT be invalid, but's probably a good starting spot -- is that a fairly steady percentage of purchasers register for the forums.

It doesn't matter if that percentage is 2% or 20%, as long as it's relatively steady over the lifespan of the game. (I'm guessing it's not only steady for DDO, but for virtually all games). I wouldn't use it as my only datapoint, but I wouldn't toss it.

I might be reaching, but the way I see it is that the people who are hyped for the game / buy it on release have a better chance of registering on the forum. People who pick it up further down the road - it might be an impulse buy from Joe Somebody at Best Buy. Even if that's week 2 or 3.

Although there could be a cult movement months down the road (Eve) and guilds will migrate from one game to another, and those guys are just as likely to sign up on the forum as the first weekers.

Can you create a forum account with a 7 day trial account?

See, that'd be something interesting one of our lurker devs could talk about. I wonder if the relationship between forum registration and subscriptions are covered under their NDAs.

[Big Gulp]

If my impression of the trial is in any way indicative of the rest of the market, I don't see how it will last long.  Movement felt like I was running and turning on a grid.  It was not smooth at all.  Bosses were obliterating me (fighter) and a cleric.  I may try again later, but right now I do not have the motivation to make even day two.

Don't feel bad, you still beat my "playtime".  I logged in, ran down the dock for a total of 30 seconds, then logged off.  Haven't logged back in since.

When someone's download time is an hour and a half and their play time (excluding character creation) is 30 seconds, you've failed.  You've failed spectacularly.

[slog]

 Some quotes from Broughden in this thread

Once again another delusional fanboi. 100k subs? They didnt even sell 100k games! Present professional market projections for March put them at some where in the neighborhood of 50k.

And that 50k? Was NOT to end users but to stores such as BestBuy or EB Games, so how many of those got returned unsold?

Broughden on his sources:

Nope not super secret. Feel free to subscribe to this market report company.
http://www.npdfunworld.com/funServlet?nextpage=track_sales.html

and

If you would like here is an article that it took me all of two secs to find on google relating to the company.
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_zd1up/is_200401/ai_ziff117173

Like the article says.....if you want to know the numbers all you have to do is pay NPD's subscription fee.

and

Because The 50k presales does not include how many were cancelled (and we all know EBgames and other retailers offering pre-sales were inundated with cancellations.
At best? I think they had maybe 30k actual presales US/Canade wide. WHY do I make this assumption? Because their were ONLY 11k initial forum accounts created within the first week of release.

http://www.ddo.com/index.php?page_id=20&pagebuilder[module]=article&pagebuilder[display_item]=412


In retrospect, I'd like to say that not only are you a complete idiot, but the company(s) that you shill for suck.