Will DDO survive the April attrition as free months expire?

[Hoax]

Is there the intraweb equivalent of a full moon going on or something?

This thread delivers


P.S
Also it has provided more entertainment then DDO ever could unless you used the cd as a frisbee and managed to behead some bystander with it, that would be pretty cool.

[slog]

Is there the intraweb equivalent of a full moon going on or something?

This thread delivers


P.S
Also it has provided more entertainment then DDO ever could unless you used the cd as a frisbee and managed to behead some bystander with it, that would be pretty cool.

yea I'm pretty much done. 

[Trippy]

Here, let me quote myself:

Turbine sez: DDO most successful Turbine game evar!

Nichols couldn't disclose the number of people that have bought the game and are currently subscribing, but he did confirm that the game was the largest in Turbine's history. "We expected success for Dungeons and Dragons Online: Stormreach (DDO) because it represents a new paradigm for the MMO genre with unique features including party-based quests, integrated voice chat, real-time action combat, and award winning graphics that recreate the essence of the classic pen-and-paper roleplaying experience," said Nichols. "The response to the game has been terrific."

Edit: oh and I forgot to mention that DDO dropped off the weekly sales top 10 list so they better hope they can keep the players they have now.

Now we can quibble what he means by "largest in Turbine's history", however Nichols does say that they had 50K preorders so any discussion of the number of copies sold has to start from that number. The NPD USA PC games sales chart for March has DDO ranked at #6 (DVD), #14 (CD), and #16 (LE). The chart also says that the top seller sold 230K copies (The Sims 2: Open for Business) though NPD doesn't track the entire retail channel (I think it's like 75% or so). I have no idea if NPD tracks preorders but those technically were purchased in February or earlier so I doubt they are reflected in the March sales.

I previously said that I thought "largest in Turbine's history" meant most active accounts (not subscribers) at any given time which would mean somewhere around 150K active accounts. If we subtract the 50K preorders from that 150K we get 100K non-preorder copies they would have had to have sold which given the above sales rankings seems a bit of a stretch except that DDO is also available in Europe so something like 75K USA + 25K Europe is certainly plausible.

[Malathor]

um, ok?

I still waiting for someone to post a link that contridicts what I said.

This thread:

http://www.ddo.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19540

would indicate peak concurrent pops are somewhere in the 10k range. Traditionally the ratio of peak pops to subs has been between 1/4 and 1/5. This would indicate that number of subs is somewhere in the 40-50k ballpark. Considering the licence, TV ads, and what must have been a significant budget, that is a shit number.

[Broughden]

Not to mention the fact that had DDO been such a resounding success I doubt we would have seen this in the news.....
"Atari could face delisting from Nasdaq if the troubled game company fails to get its shares over $1.00."

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2455&Itemid=2

[Margalis]

"Largest in Turbine history" probably means it took the most resources to produce.

Marketing people cannot be trusted.

[Shockeye]

even an ADMIN have challenged your claim of over 100k units sold

Learn to read nitwit. I challenged the veracity of the evidence. I don't know whether the game has 10k, 100k or 1 million units sold and/or subscribed.

[Shockeye]

Not to mention the fact that had DDO been such a resounding success I doubt we would have seen this in the news.....
"Atari could face delisting from Nasdaq if the troubled game company fails to get its shares over $1.00."

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2455&Itemid=2

Ok cockmonkey, that newsbit was dated 3/9/06. The newsbit itself said Atari received their notice on March 3rd. DDO was released on 2/28/06. It would pretty much be impossible for 3 days of sales to turn everything around.

[WindupAtheist]

Uhm no they didnt. Not according to any market reports Ive read for March. If you are so sure you're right please post a link otherwise STFU.

In the interest of fairness, I'm calling upon you to post your sources for these market reports.  And if you're basing your statements upon super-seekrit numbers ala Bruce, prepare to get flamed.

[Broughden]

Not to mention the fact that had DDO been such a resounding success I doubt we would have seen this in the news.....
"Atari could face delisting from Nasdaq if the troubled game company fails to get its shares over $1.00."

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2455&Itemid=2

Ok cockmonkey, that newsbit was dated 3/9/06. The newsbit itself said Atari received their notice on March 3rd. DDO was released on 2/28/06. It would pretty much be impossible for 3 days of sales to turn everything around.

Cockmonkey? LOL  :-D I dont think Ive ever been called a cockmonkey before. Will definitely have to remember that one for future use.
But anyway HERE are the stock reports for the last 90 days for Atari. You are right 3 days of sales could not have turned things around....unfortunately neither have the last 45 or so.

[Broughden]

Uhm no they didnt. Not according to any market reports Ive read for March. If you are so sure you're right please post a link otherwise STFU.

In the interest of fairness, I'm calling upon you to post your sources for these market reports.  And if you're basing your statements upon super-seekrit numbers ala Bruce, prepare to get flamed.

Nope not super secret. Feel free to subscribe to this market report company.
http://www.npdfunworld.com/funServlet?nextpage=track_sales.html

[Murgos]

None of the servlets I've ever made have been fun :(

It must be nice to work at fun world.

[WindupAtheist]

Nope not super secret. Feel free to subscribe to this market report company. http://www.npdfunworld.com/funServlet?nextpage=track_sales.html

Quote the information this company sends you.  If you cannot do so, you should have refrained from referencing it.

[Broughden]

Nope not super secret. Feel free to subscribe to this market report company. http://www.npdfunworld.com/funServlet?nextpage=track_sales.html

Quote the information this company sends you.  If you cannot do so, you should have refrained from referencing it.

Well I guess I shouldnt have used it. However, that doesnt change the information itself nor the fact that its available should you or the company you work for decide to pay for it.

Neither does it change Atari's nose diving stock price even after the release of DDO. Of course saying the release of DDO should have helped bolster their stock price is in an of itself inherently wrong, since sales of the game to distributors such as Target, EBGames, BestBuy, etc etc all happened and were reported prior to the day it was released to the public. In other words any sales from DDO by Atari should have been reported in their already publicly reported 4Q'05 earnings reports which ended 31 Mar 2006. But I posted the last 90 days anyway just to keep everyone happy above.

[Trippy]

NPD only tracks US and Canada. DDO was released in Europe on March 3 so any discussion of their overall player base has to include sales over there as well.

[Broughden]

NPD only tracks US and Canada. DDO was released in Europe on March 3 so any discussion of their overall player base has to include sales over there as well.

Of course. Projected figures are presently around 20-25k units sold by the European publisher Codemasters. But once again these numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. They are ONLY for the initial number of units sold by the publisher to the retail markets and are not accurate representations as to how many have been actually sold retail, or were returned to the publisher by retail outlets unable to sell the game.

[voblat]

NPD only tracks US and Canada. DDO was released in Europe on March 3 so any discussion of their overall player base has to include sales over there as well.

Of course. Projected figures are presently around 20-25k units sold by the European publisher Codemasters. But once again these numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. They are ONLY for the initial number of units sold by the publisher to the retail markets and are not accurate representations as to how many have been actually sold retail, or were returned to the publisher by retail outlets unable to sell the game.

And where do these 'projected figures ' come from?

For someone who was so aggressive to the poster who couldn't produce any proof, you have , so far, not produced anything verifiable yourself. Posting the address of a paid for website you know no one in their right mind will pay money to see just to prove you right or wrong is as straw man as posting an icq chat log.

So, being as you were so insulting to the poster who couldn't provide what you wanted, where, with detailed sales records, is your proof?

Or are you just one of those , 'if I shout loud enough I dint think anyone will question me' types who has no way of backing up your statement.


Indeed, taking your posts here as a whole, we see something surprising.There were, by all verifiable accounts , 50k pre orders in the North American market, which wouldn't be included in your sales to Eb games etc as far as I can tell. You claim they have 'only' sold a further 50k in the whole of the north American market(unless you are saying that does include direct pre orders, in which case you are claiming they sold 0 copies in the entire North American market barring pre orders, which is highly doubtful) , plus a further 25k or so in Europe.

Now, I may not be a statistician, but those numbers you provided seem to add up to 125k sales, and yet you resorted to childish name calling when confronted with someone saying they sold over 100k, something which you here have said yourself.

The trouble with 'market reports' and projected sales, is that ultimately they can be spun to say whatever you want, its also notoriously inaccurate in terms of actual subscriptions, certain mmo population charts are testament to that.

Even 125k sales could mean only 40k-50k subs, depending on the actual rate of loss, and no one outside of turbine likely know that information. That of course, makes your whole rant in this thread as moot anyway, because without knowing the percentage retention theyare getting, sales figures for the box are worthless in terms of assessing subscriber numbers.


My personal opinion, you couldn't pay me to play it, doesn't mean you should be an ass to someone over it without something solid  to back yourself up though.

[Numtini]

Based on the number of people I tried to warn who went out and bought the game anyway, DDO probably sold pretty well. The norm for my friends is for them to tell me on day one they think the game is great and I was totally wrong and cancel a week later bored out of their skulls. Sales were based on the name on the box, not on the game features and most people don't seem to see it as having lasting interest.

[Miasma]

None of the servlets I've ever made have been fun :(

It must be nice to work at fun world.

I implicitly trust a company named "Funworld" for all of my serious, hard-core market trends and retail analysis.  I am also glad the data is presented via the "funServlet".

I get my wholesale data from "Crazyland Incorporated", and as far as real-time datamining of the London Metal Exchange's bullion/mineral stream is concerned "HappyJoyWorld LLC" is the only name you need to know.

[Toast]

Without any real evidence, I found DDO to be so unremarkable and so uninteresting that I can't imagine it being successful.

With other MMOs, there is at least that honeymoon period, the glimmer of hope that this one could be pretty good. There is something in the world that hooks and intrigues. Now, this usually doesn't last too long, but at least it is there.

It was meh at first sight.

[Mesozoic]

Numbers aside, the important thing is that developers realize that this kind of shit won't fly.  Buying a popular license does not entitle you to $14.99 a month. 

[slog]

Without any real evidence, I found DDO to be so unremarkable and so uninteresting that I can't imagine it being successful.

Which was the point of my original post in this thread.  Lots of people find it interesting enough.  They just don't read f13. 

[HaemishM]

I can't say with any certainty that DDO is or isn't successful. I don't think it will be successful long-term, for a lot of reasons.

But since no figures have been publicly released, I would be guessing. And it doesn't matter what the actual numbers are anyway, because few MMOG's not made by Greg's MMOG Shack are going to last less than 6 months before folding.

Also, the actual numbers don't matter, because while it may only have 100k subs, it may only need 25k subs to be profitable. And its profitability is more important than any number you could throw up there. People started prognosticating DOOM AND GLOOM for CoH when it dropped from 160k subscribers to around 120k or so, never thinking that their business model was such that even 100k subs was a FANTASTIC SUCCESS OMG EVERYONE GETS BONUSES!

Turbine went for a much smaller market than WoW. I don't think they fulfilled it well, BUT if they set their business model up to only need 25-50k subscribers to be profitable, anything over that is a resounding success for an indy developer. But 6 months down the line is when it's really going to matter. If they can sustain profitability for 6 months, they'll get at least another year out of the thing barring some NGE-level stupidity.

Anecdotal evidence of lack of content affecting subscription: The friend I carpool to work with bought it and loved it on release. He is a casual player, over the age of 35, with plenty of disposable income. He's not a hardcore guy, not a PVP guy, big fan of D&D and the D20 system, and MMOG veteran from EQ1 onward. Subbed to WoW for over 6 months. Plays with a regular group of guys set nights and week, and augments that with other play times during the week. He's not averse to DDO Pickup Groups. He's probably going to cancel his subscription (he started in the Head Start event) soon because he's playing more Auto Assault. Yes, I can't account for his taste. :)

My gut feeling is that there will be a big number that quit quietly like him within the next 2-3 months. DDO will be at best a modest success, certainly better than AC2, but will never sustain COH numbers. In other words, somewhere in the middle between the fanbois and the groupthink, the truth lies.

[d4rkj3di]

Game's been out less than 2 months?

http://www.ddo.com/index.php?page_id=20&pagebuilder[module]=article&pagebuilder[display_item]=401]

7 day free trials!

Ya, it's doing just peachy.

[Hoax]

Now all we need to have is somebody post a detailed walkthrough of how they got to level10 during the seven day trial get some of the bigger sites to carry it and we can call it a wrap on this one.  I would do it but you know, EvE + hockey playoffs = no time.

[Threash]

Game's been out less than 2 months?

http://www.ddo.com/index.php?page_id=20&pagebuilder[module]=article&pagebuilder[display_item]=401]

7 day free trials!

Ya, it's doing just peachy.

That doesn't necesarily mean its doing bad, hell wow had a free trial.  I played DDO during beta and while i liked it fine it never felt MMORPGy enough to be worth a monthly fee.

[Broughden]

I implicitly trust a company named "Funworld" for all of my serious, hard-core market trends and retail analysis.  I am also glad the data is presented via the "funServlet".

I get my wholesale data from "Crazyland Incorporated", and as far as real-time datamining of the London Metal Exchange's bullion/mineral stream is concerned "HappyJoyWorld LLC" is the only name you need to know.

I thought people on this site were knowledgable of the gaming industry? Have you never heard of the monthly sales projections posted on Gameamp.com and other gaming websites called Chartspots? They list the weekly and monthly top computer game sales? Where do you think they get their market research from? NPD Funworld.

If you would like here is an article that it took me all of two secs to find on google relating to the company.
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_zd1up/is_200401/ai_ziff117173

Like the article says.....if you want to know the numbers all you have to do is pay NPD's subscription fee.

[slog]

You have nothing.  I recommend taking your act to the IGN boards.  I'm sure it will play very well there.

[Arthur_Parker]

Interesting that DDO has made over 100k sales, can you ask if that figure includes Europe?

[Merusk]

The more he says "Just pay for NPD's report" the more I suspect a shill.

But then, I'm paranoid like that.

[Broughden]

You have nothing.  I recommend taking your act to the IGN boards.  I'm sure it will play very well there.

I posted quite a few links relating to a pay per information company where they could get the information they needed,
and another on the stock performance of Atari. I would openly post the information from NPD, but my company pays the exhorbitant subscription rate and since a couple fellow co-workers post/read on this site I can not openly do so. Now of course the information on Atari's stock prices is circumstantial at best admittedly...I noticed that you yourself have yet to post any evidence of any type relating to your claim.

[Broughden]

Interesting that DDO has made over 100k sales, can you ask if that figure includes Europe?

Arthur,

Slog is the only one making this claim and has yet to post any proof of it. Despite us repeatedly asking him for such.

[Nija]

I can't believe you guys have argued for 2 pages about this.

Broughden, I think I speak for everyone when I say "shut the fuck up and paste the information you have or get out."

Everyone who participates in SUBSCRIPTION NUMBERS ARGUMENTS should be ashamed.

THERE IS NO 'US' YOU STUPID COCK SHUT THE FUCK UP.

[slog]

The more he says "Just pay for NPD's report" the more I suspect a shill.

But then, I'm paranoid like that.

Heh, I was thinking the same thing :)

[Broughden]

The more he says "Just pay for NPD's report" the more I suspect a shill.

But then, I'm paranoid like that.

As an individual you would certainly NOT want to pay for NPD's reports unless you were VERY serious into the gaming industry and had alot of disposable income. Their reports cost several thousand dollars because they are marketted to the gaming, advertising, and news industry which of course has the money to pay for it.
But as I said if you work in those industries or have the money to spend individually the information you need.....or someone like SirBruce may need....is there.