F13 Fantasy Football 2014

[HaemishM]

Hey, it works for me. Trade accepted. Neither one has been lighting the world on fire, but I'm more confident in Fitzgerald even with *Unknown QB off the Street* than Colston right now.

[shiznitz]

And I am thinking that anyone with Brees is better than an aging Larry F with no name QB!  That is what makes a market.

[Nebu]

I'm playing against a guy with Percy Harvin and laughing.  How many TD's has he had taken away due to penalties tonight?

[Paelos]

I'm playing against a guy with Percy Harvin and laughing.  How many TD's has he had taken away due to penalties tonight?

Guy I'm playing in the other league just needed 6 points from Percy to win. Just six.

He got 4.50, 

[WayAbvPar]

I'm playing against a guy with Percy Harvin and laughing.  How many TD's has he had taken away due to penalties tonight?

 

[Zetleft]

I'm playing against a guy with Percy Harvin and laughing.  How many TD's has he had taken away due to penalties tonight?

 

He never did get his 4th touchdown... I'm sure that one would have held up :p

[shiznitz]

With 5 weeks down, time for a review.

QB: Luck leads the position and was drafted in Round 6 by Roosters. Peyton is 4th and Rodgers is 6th. Rivers at #2 is the big surprise so far, Drunks grabbed him in Round 9!  Many fantasy pros liked Matt Ryan (Round 5) this year. I thought they were nuts. I am wrong so far.

WR: Once again, Roosters proved adept at the draft by grabbing the #1 WR through 5 weeks, Antonio Brown, early in Round 3.  My stretch for Maclin in Round 5 has panned out so far.  The draft grader hated that pick.  Injuries have plagued Megatron and AJ this year. Two Green Bay WRs are in the top 4!  Edelman has not lived up to the early hype due to Brady's problems.  Kelvin Benjamin is less than a point from being in the top 10 as a rookie.  The Panthers picked a good one and so did Attack Monkies (11th round). We have discusses Steve Smith already so I won't go back there.

RB: Ginger Gorillas grabbed DeMarco Murray in Round 2 and he has blown the field away so far (although some of his peers have had a bye week already).  His fragility has not emerged yet and who thought the Cowboys would run so much? Not me.  The bigger story, though, is the stink coming from LeSean and Jamaal. Those early draft pick disappointments have been hard for their owners to overcome. However, both picked RBs in round 2 as well and those picks, Bell and Foster, have produced like 1st rounders.  Two old dogs, Bradshaw (#7) and Fred Jackson (#11) just won't quit the NFL.  Bradshaw saved me a few times and he went undrafted.  Drunks' Round 12 pick of Sproles looked like genius through 3 weeks but the Eagles are having trouble running now.

TE: Jimmy Graham has not lived up to the Round 1 hype.  His 58 points would make him the #8 WR this year so far. Thomas (Round 4) is the #1 TE so far, but he is only 12pts ahead of #10 while the #1 to #10 spread among WRs is almost 30pts.  Drafting TEs in the early rounds is a risky bet that apparently even the fantasy pros fall for every 10 years or so.  The hype on Graham was monstrous this year.  I like that Antonio Gates has seen a revival (#4) after going undrafted.  I was an ass in hindfight for leaving him on the board in favor of Pitta.

DEF: This year is a great example of why you don't waste a mid-round pick on Defense.  Two teams (probably autodrafters) took DEF in Round 7 and the better pick of those two, SF, is #15 so far.  Attack Monkies grabbed HOU in the 8th and has gotten solid top ten TE type points from them.  Nonthing I saw anywhere in the fantasy pro world suggested Philly and Buffalo would be at the top of this list. 

[Paelos]

Like the recap. I'm just happy to be 2-3 right now after my WR performances. Ugh.

[HaemishM]

The WR pool is hellaciously shallow this year. You either get one of the top five or six, or you are sucking hind tit hoping for a TD on one of your guys. Trying to waiver wire a WR is a fruitless endeavor - it's pure luck to get a good one who will likely have 2 weeks at most of breakout numbers and 14 weeks of suck. RB's to me seem to be on a bit of an upsurge but again - if you didn't get the right ones, you are fucked. Even the sure things haven't been.

[Phildo]

Hypothetically speaking, would anyone here choose Ronnie Hillman over Chris Johnson going forward?  I could also potentially drop Trent Richardson, and I'm already dumping Taliaferro for a tight end to cover a bye week.  My ace RB in this league is Chris Ivory and I've got James Starks as my longshot.

I hate my team in this league, and yet I'm 4-1.

[HaemishM]

If Chris Johnson is someone you are counting on, you're fucked.  Taliaferro is a dud - Forsett is getting most of those carries.

[WayAbvPar]

Yeah, I thought Chris Johnson might do something since his QB is dogshit, but Chris Ivory is stealing his job. He got paid and then immediately got lazy. Chone Figgins-esque.

[HaemishM]

To be fair, Chris Johnson was lazy on the Titans last year too, so the Jets shouldn't be in the least bit surprised he's riding a lawn chair this season. Their GM is utter shit.

[Phildo]

Taliaferro put up fantasy numbers two games in a row before he fell off, so considering my situation before that he was a decent pickup.  Anyway, I'm going to cut Johnson loose unless someone convinces me not to in the next 12 hours or so.

[Nebu]

Hypothetically speaking, would anyone here choose Ronnie Hillman over Chris Johnson going forward?  I could also potentially drop Trent Richardson, and I'm already dumping Taliaferro for a tight end to cover a bye week.  My ace RB in this league is Chris Ivory and I've got James Starks as my longshot.

I don't think Hillman has any long term value in that platoon.  Juwan Thompson looks to be the sleeper pick there.

Is Andre Williams available?  He's worth a flier too.

[Phildo]

Nah, Williams was drafted.  It's a very deep 14-team league.  The following RBs are available with over 2% ownership rates: Robert Turbin, Danny Woodhead, Ray Rice and Terrance West.  The only other conceivable pickup this week would be Brandon Oliver, but who knows where he stands in two weeks either.

[Nebu]

Grab Oliver.  He's like a stronger version of Sproles.

[Nevermore]

Yeah, even when Mathews comes back Oliver is a good bet to take on the Woodhead 3rd down back role.  Woodhead, by the way, is out for the year if I remember correctly.

[HaemishM]

Yes, Woodhead is hosed. Terrence West is also not going to get you shit.

[Phildo]

So the current order is Oliver for Johnson, and Hillman for Johnson in case someone else wants Oliver more.  Dropping Taliafero for a TE that I can then flip back into some RB the following week, and swapping kickers because I'm fickle like that.

[Yegolev]

My wife told me yesterday YOU BETTER NOT GRAB OLIVER so I figured he was worth a look... but I forgot to go for him.

[Phildo]

Haha, I spread my risk out.  Grabbed Oliver in one league, Hillman in another and Williams in the 3rd.  I will probably regret Hillman the most.

[MrHat]

Haha, I spread my risk out.  Grabbed Oliver in one league, Hillman in another and Williams in the 3rd.  I will probably regret Hillman the most.

Ya. Broncos will probably roll with whoever they feel like between Hillman+CJ+Thomas then when Ball gets back he'll likely only get 50% of the snaps.

Good for the team, bad for fantasy.

Or I could be stunningly wrong.

[Nebu]

I think Thomas will be their feature back by the end of the season... but still part of a 3 headed platoon.  None of them will ever be fantasy gold.  Just a flex spot option in a deep league.

[Nebu]

New fantasy decision question: Wes Welker or Steve Smith Sr. for my flex spot?  I also have Cordarralle Patterson, but have lost all faith in the Minnesota offense. 

[Paelos]

I'm looking to trade for a good TE starter if people are interested in a WR. Welker, Benjamin, and Sanu are on the table. Julio Jones is possibly on the table for a top 5 TE option.

[Cyrrex]

I assume that is main league, in which case I am a sad panda because I have Delanie Walker that I am not using.  I think he must be close to top five, but I haven't checked.

[Paelos]

Yeah in the main league.

[MrHat]

I assume that is main league, in which case I am a sad panda because I have Delanie Walker that I am not using.  I think he must be close to top five, but I haven't checked.

He is in that Awesome Value TD Tier 2, just below the Ultra Reliable Tier 1 of Julius/Gronk/Graham.

I think TEs look like this Rest of Season (in order PPR):

Tier 1 (no brainer starts, you drafted them high for reliability)
Julius
Gronk
Graham

Tier 2 (each has a very high floor and can post no.1 TE numbers each week based on TD)
Olsen
Martellus
Delanie

Tier 3 (mini Gronk pick up)
Kelce

Tier 4 (who the eff knows if they catch a TD, but its very likely)
Gates
Cameron (Q)
Reed (Q)
Vernon (Q)
Donnell
Allen
Ertz

Tier 5 (high floor crew 3-4 catches 30-50 yards)
Heath
Witten
Daniels
Cook

Tier 6 (upside specials)
Wright
Green
Paul
Toilolo
Ebron
Sefarian-Jenkins

Basically, T1-5 is every week starter (T1-2 are so great they are legit flex plays over most RBs/WRs depending on the league). Kelce I think is super great and has a chance to be the fourth TE drafted off the board next year.  T4 will win you a match up but its flukey.  T5 won't lose you a match up.  T6 is stash and hope for second half of season performance (Wright or SJ) or injuries to WRs/TEs on the team (Green, Paul, Toilolo, Ebron can all become 3rd down/TD targets if the main RBs/WRs/TEs go down).

Been spending a lot of time looking at TEs these last few weeks since Rudolph went down.  He was my TE in basically all my leagues.  In my money league ($2k pot), I've got amazing players everywhere but TE, so I've been trying to figure out proper trade value for each of those guys.  Currently I'm trying to trade Ball straight up for Kelce, as their values are intersecting about now (bye week).


Edit: Forgot Ertz, added to T4 due to PHI implosion.

[Phildo]

Wes Welker or Steve Smith Sr.

That's a good problem to have, both have great matchups this week.  I'm currently rolling smith over Sanders in one league, but I'm waffling over it heavily.

I actually dropped Patterson for Smith since some dummy let him go last week.

[HaemishM]

You forgot Zach Ertz in your TE pool. He's actually been giving me steady numbers each week.

[MrHat]

Wes Welker or Steve Smith Sr.

That's a good problem to have, both have great matchups this week.  I'm currently rolling smith over Sanders in one league, but I'm waffling over it heavily.

I actually dropped Patterson for Smith since some dummy let him go last week.

I want to say be careful with Smith as no matter what he is old and it's a lot of running around to do for the whole season.  But:

[shiznitz]

New fantasy decision question: Wes Welker or Steve Smith Sr. for my flex spot?  I also have Cordarralle Patterson, but have lost all faith in the Minnesota offense. 

While both match-ups are good, Welker just has too much competition for looks. Flacco always looks for Smith first these days.  Smith has 49 looks to Welker's 18.  I just don't see any reason to expect that differential to reverse.

[Nebu]

While both match-ups are good, Welker just has too much competition for looks. Flacco always looks for Smith first these days.  Smith has 49 looks to Welker's 18.  I just don't see any reason to expect that differential to reverse.

While I agree with your fundamental premise, remember that Welker has played 2 games and Smith has played 5.  I'm only considering Welker for 2 reasons.  1) the Jets are weak in the middle against the pass and 2) Welker needs the ball to stay productive.  Manning learned this last year.  I'm guessing that it's pretty likely that Welker may see more red zone balls this week.  I'm just not sure I want to bet on it.

[Cyrrex]

Yeah, and Sanders is emerging to be the real deal and no reason to think Peyton will stop throwing to him.  He even tore up the Seattle secondary.  Naturally, I sat him that week.

Also, in JV league, I have both Delanie Walker and Gronk.  Will consider trades, but I will be blunt here:  I would only trade either of them for a top level RB, and more likely it would be for Walker.  I also have an abundance of WRs still...I think Malcolm Floyd and Mike Wallace are more or less permanent bench warmers, at least until Percy Harvin sprains his vag.