War

[Kageru]

Nobody really expects the goons to hold onto Deklein I think. The enemy has a clear super-cap supremacy which trumps the goons numbers. In a fight under a jammer which blocks super-caps entering the system goons seem to be doing pretty well. But since they can't really launch an offensive or retake lost systems outside of that protection it works out being a delaying action. If they keep Deklein it will be an agressive super-cap nerf (unlikely) or the opponents fragmenting / getting bored / turning on each other (very unlikely).

[tgr]

I've just moved about 12b in assets out of deklein, and I'm tearing down 2-4b more to be sent back this week. Deklein is more or less lost, the only thing that's stopping this from being an absolute fact is cynojammers (and we've got to keep them up at all costs, now), and the fact that we might, might manage to last longer than the attackers.

Personally I'm hoping we get kicked out soon and that we start going back to being a bunch of locusts and piss in everyone's cheerios. Where that would be, I don't know, but preferably somewhere in 0.0. IRC space, for example, they're hilariously bad, yet they keep forming up to fight.

[eldaec]

  It would help if Mostly Useless pulled their finger out and actually did something other than not tell us about attacks on their systems or suicide fleets into the northern blob.

Pretty sure MH have already decided they are fucking off to the south.

Personally I'm hoping we get kicked out soon and that we start going back to being a bunch of locusts and piss in everyone's cheerios.

Relocating to a sensible region for subcap fights is cool, honestly though, 'being a bunch of locusts' is not as much fun as 'rolling in tech isk and being able to reimburse any retarded gang we like while pushing Molle's shit in'.

On the upside, if we do get get kicked out of the North West, it means that at some later date we'll be able to invade cloud ring for the sixth time.


Re Supercaps. An effective supercap nerf that still allows them to justify the cost would have to be a fairly involved mechanics change, not a simple data change, so there is no prospect of that until CCP get tired of space barbie. Meaning it is probably at least a year away.

[Sir T]

Yeah. The last time Supercarriers were 'nerfed' it largely was just removing the bug that allowed them to have 30 km smartbombs. The fix now would have to be something far more fundamental, and will come far too late.

Hmm.. might start a thread on surercap Nerf ideas...

[tgr]

I've been involved in such a thread for well over a month now, it basically involves PL saying they're fine, they're needed to keep the game fizzy and exciting for them, they're easily counterable, really, honest, truly, you just haven't thought of how to yet. And that idea is dumb because it removes the isk justification for actually fielding the ship. So is that idea. And that. And that idea is especially dumb, how can you even think that?

There. Just compressed a month's discussion into a paragraph so you won't have to.

Hell, even the new sov system is apparently better now than the old one. It has less depth than the old one, it has more ehp, it basically requires bigger blobs of people, it is highly punishing of the attacker if they fuck up even ONE fight (especially the last fight), there's no dynamicity to it, no tug of war, yet it's better because they can grind through a system in "5 days with 20 minutes of effort" rather than "2 days of 10 hours of effort".

I'm giving up on understanding some people's logic.

[Sir T]

I've been involved in such a thread for well over a month now, it basically involves PL saying they're fine, they're needed to keep the game fizzy and exciting for them, they're easily counterable, really, honest, truly, you just haven't thought of how to yet. And that idea is dumb because it removes the isk justification for actually fielding the ship. So is that idea. And that. And that idea is especially dumb, how can you even think that?

There. Just compressed a month's discussion into a paragraph so you won't have to.

So basically PL have become BOB vis a vis Titans. I remember them steadfastly refusing to admit anything broken about them despite their Nerfing resulting in BOBs huge rampage throughout the galaxy coming to a screeching halt. Oh and BOB never actually managing to kill a titan in un-suspicious circumstances (apart from their own of course)

[Endie]

There are a couple of ways we can win, but it's a long shot on those: the most likely outcome is still that the hostiles continue to demonstrate their terror of our elite peeveepee prowess by bringing more and more people, many in supers.

[Amaron]

You know the alliance sounds super crazy rich.   Why are you getting outsupered considering that?  Lack of production?   I don't remember where I heard it but someone implied there were a lot more pilots than ships.

[Fordel]

All those capitals require minerals and factories and shit or whatever.

-edit- And time, Time is probably the biggest ball buster atm.

[Amaron]

So you're saying basically it's just there wasn't enough of them already built when the war started and they can't be built in time now?

[Fordel]

They still take a month to build last I knew? So that seems like a problem to me yea.

[tgr]

Supers take 19 days to build in their final stage, and if you've invested up to 40b in BPOs + time researching them, you can build the components at roughly the same pace, so you can poop out a super every 19 days or so. Titans take 8 weeks to build. One supercarrier costs around 12-20b (depending on fit), and a titan costs around 60-80b (again, depending on fit).

GSF isn't a poor alliance, but it isn't super rich either. We invest heavily in subcap fleets to try to keep the game a fun one for the membership, so they'll actually log in and not athropy from boredom, instead of plowing everything into supers.

[Fordel]

Basically, even if the Goons devoted every waking non-space-defending moment on capital construction, they'd still be dozens if not hundreds of capitals behind.

[tgr]

Not sure about the numbers, but yeah, given the new NC's bunch of supercaps (40+ titans, 150+ supercarriers, or thereabouts), I think it's fair to say we'd most likely be way behind the curve even if we went all in now.

[eldaec]

There are a couple of ways we can win, but it's a long shot on those: the most likely outcome is still that the hostiles continue to demonstrate their terror of our elite peeveepee prowess by bringing more and more people, many in supers.

Goonswarm 2011 : The elite wulf pax alliance.

Basically, even if the Goons devoted every waking non-space-defending moment on capital construction, they'd still be dozens if not hundreds of capitals behind.

Our super cap providers mostly complain they struggle to sell what they are building. And it isn't because of skills - supercarriers need basically nothing beyond ordinary carriers.

[tgr]

They need fighters 5 and fighter bombers, which is probably at most a 2 month add to the skillplan.

I've got more than enough isk for a supercarrier, but I can't describe how little I want to get in one.

[Sir T]

Basically if they were balanced they would be dying once every 19 days or so, but since they are not their numbers are just inflating constantly, built by the huge macromining hulk swarm of skynet. And the side that loses the first few supercap battles cant replace them and might as well wander off.

[ajax34i]

Is the problem that they're not glass cannons?

[Kageru]

I've been involved in such a thread for well over a month now, it basically involves PL saying they're fine, they're needed to keep the game fizzy and exciting for them, they're easily counterable, really, honest, truly, you just haven't thought of how to yet. And that idea is dumb because it removes the isk justification for actually fielding the ship. So is that idea. And that. And that idea is especially dumb, how can you even think that?

And then it boils down to, "You losers are just jealous".

I'm pretty much convinced the entire problem is the concept of super-capitals. a "Huge investment" ship is a cute concept but it's either an expensive ornament or allows a reasonably small squad of veterans to counter 10+ times their number with no collateral damage. If, as the designer, you want to induce people to play your space empires game that's going in the wrong direction. It is part of what is driving the current war, getting the resources and secure space to inflate your super-fleet, but the end result will be someone winning and becoming effectively unchallengeable.

Already even if goons could hold onto Deklein the resources pouring into the new north and the security of their space means the current super-cap blob is only the beginning.

[Stabs]

Has anyone aside from the Russians managed to get over the psychological hurdle of supercap pilots not wanting to risk their wonderful shiny?

[tgr]

Has anyone aside from the Russians managed to get over the psychological hurdle of supercap pilots not wanting to risk their wonderful shiny?

DRF, PL, RaidenDOT, NCdot, ev0ke. But that's probably because they're mostly on the same side, so they're mostly safe.

[Kageru]

DRF treats them as alliance assets. PL treats them as extensions of the pilots massive ego's but also doesn't expect to lose many due to strategy, meta-gaming, skill and making sure the numbers favor them. Never being forced into a battle gives them a lot of freedom. That and generous reimbursement makes a lot of difference.

In practice though the correct call is not to risk super-caps where there is a decent chance of loss. They're just too expensive and slow to replace from both the pilot and alliance point of view. Which means once one side gets a clear advantage, and enough of a blob they can laugh at sub-caps, they field them with gay abandon because the only sane option for the opposition is to concede.

[tgr]

And that, combined with the current SOV system, means that wars take a few weeks instead of a few months to a year, and it's rather unsatisfying.

[Trigona]

I think that if the goons keep up their morale and fight under cyno jammers they will survive.  To take Deklein in such circumstances will be the grind to end all grinds.  For what it's worth I haven't detected any defeatism, everyone knows that we are out gunned with supercaps but that our alpha fleet is second to none.

Didn't RA at one stage find themselves forced back to one station system, before managing to claw their way back?  I'm hoping that we fight that sort of fight.   

I have to admit I was surprised that Endie and tgr had such a bleak assessment of goons long term chances, so I evacuated non war assets to empire, but I've kept all my PvP ships in VFK, ready to go down fighting.

Another thing that puzzles me is that if things really are that grim, why don't goonswarm employ PL?  Although it's quite possible that PL want us dead.

No doubt high command has being going through all these possibilities, however I would really like a new Endie analysis of the situation so that the grunts are kept in the loop

[tgr]

My bleak assessment of goons long term chances is mainly because it doesn't take that much for us to lose a whole system. If they do get the jammer down in a system, there's nothing stopping them from just parking enough of their supers in that system for a week straight (or if they're just going for our CSAAs, 2-3 days). Basically it's ours to fuck up, not PL/NCdot/raidendot/ev0ke/etc to win, and in circumstances like this it's much, much better to have a low attack surface (i.e. no non-essential assets that are vulnerable to loss) so that you've got that much more resources to actually play with (either through liquidity after selling all your shit in empire, or in general after we get thrown out).

If we can keep doing what we did the last time they went for DKUK (i.e. this), then the future is looking a lot less grim, but it's much better to plan for the worst and get a pleasant surprise.

(Incidentally, this is telling us we killed 48b and lost 11b, but eve-kill is notoriously awful at putting people in the right bracket so I've no idea how accurate that number is. They lost enough that I haven't seen a sufficiently heavy second attack since then, so jabber is literally making me win eve erryday by not pinging.)

[Kageru]

PL's "mercenary" thing is mostly a gimmick. Their long term interests come first. And in this case there's a bunch of PL people butt-hurt enough at Goons, and enough Evoke people who want the space, to motivate the attack.

The main problem is as TGR said. Once we lose a system it becomes open to super-cap hot-drops and a death trap. Thus the goons can't really mount an offensive or retake lost ground. If we slip up once, or get bum-rushed (200 supers sitting in VFK), we lose space we will never recover. So while we might not lose easily we don't really have any ability to win, other than perhaps them getting bored and frustrated. And given there's no better fight than us left in Eve that's not too likely.

[Sir T]

The one advantage that the Goons have is that they are the best subcap fleet in eve, bar none, and PL, DICE et all are mortally terrified of losing ships and being podded. They don't want to lose, ever. Losing a ship means that they are not as marvelous as they want to think they are. So they will only attack with overwhelming force, which takes time to organise and is is based on how many people are logged in at a time, and also means when losses mount they will be scrambling over one another to get out so let the other alliances will absorb the humiliating losses. Plus the Goons are used to fighting outnumbered as their enemies never fight them any other way.

Its straight from Sun Tzu. If you always wait till conditions are perfect you will probably lose the war.

If it was me I'd be doing something like telling the supercap pilots to get out of their toys, giving everyone 5 battleships or whatever and telling them to charge the cynojammers over and over again till they go down, losses be dammed. They have the on paper numbers and are immortal. But these guys have such titanic egos that there would probably be just 3 people doing it if you tried something like that.

All that said the initiative is all on the bad guys side which is never a good situation to be in.

[tmp]

Plus the Goons are used to fighting outnumbered as their enemies never fight them any other way.

Funny, i could swear there was this one war in EVE that involved universe-wide bandwagon with the Goons on the forefront. It even spawned some pretty long threads.

[palmer_eldritch]

Plus the Goons are used to fighting outnumbered as their enemies never fight them any other way.

Funny, i could swear there was this one war in EVE that involved universe-wide bandwagon with the Goons on the forefront. It even spawned some pretty long threads.

hehe that time we killed Bob? Good times

[Sir T]

Plus the Goons are used to fighting outnumbered as their enemies never fight them any other way.

Funny, i could swear there was this one war in EVE that involved universe-wide bandwagon with the Goons on the forefront. It even spawned some pretty long threads.

The ones that involved fleets of 700 (them) vs 500 (us)? Yep, good times.

{edit} Actually, I remember in my first major battle as part of Goonswarm I heard DBRB say "Ok guys, we have to kill 3 of them for every one we lose. Its that simple."

[Phildo]

Another thing that puzzles me is that if things really are that grim, why don't goonswarm employ PL?  Although it's quite possible that PL want us dead.

Fuck PL.

[Comstar]

Another thing that puzzles me is that if things really are that grim, why don't goonswarm employ PL?  Although it's quite possible that PL want us dead.

Because that would involve PL having to attack their Russian paymasters. Although if it looked like the Drone Region Russian's were in danger of getting killed, PL would turn on them, just like MC tried to do with BoB (and for that matter, the NcDOTDOT forces).

However, there is no grand alliances formed to destroy the Drone Region Russian's, and no one else with the power to do so wants to live in the drone regions either. I could see some of the 3rd rate alliances now living around Delve hiring PL to attack TEST though.

[Sir T]

Another thing that puzzles me is that if things really are that grim, why don't goonswarm employ PL?  Although it's quite possible that PL want us dead.

Also because it would probably wind up the same as ASCN hiring MC for a week during the BOB war. Basically them making a few small attacks here and there with subcaps and basically taking Goon money and not doing anything.

[Comstar]

In happier news, Stralaghan released a new Goonswarm propaganda movie. Watch it in full screen HD to see all the little touches he put into it. Quite effective if you ever played Homeworld I think.

[Amaron]

It was good until he started talking.   I lost all urge to continue watching at that point.