Who will rule the MMO market? **Betting ended January 2007**

[Lantyssa]

I thought they have to release some form of numbers for WAR as part of the next EA quarter results.

I hope so.  That day will be delicious.

[damijin]

I didn't do too bad! Can't believe I thought Vanguard would still have players after X time though. I guess we hadn't learned about how big of a failure Sigil really was when we wrote those predictions.

I think Aion should be included based on the early reports from Asia of very enthusiastic beta, but I think Jumpgate and Darkfall are a little silly :)

[WayAbvPar]

WTH is The Agency? It rings a very muffled bell, but my antiquated synapses just aren't recalling any details.

[Draegan]

Aion has released already and I read somewhere that it has a few 100k users already and growing.  I can't seem to find the numbers though.

I guess you can include the Agency since it is a SOE game.  I think it's going to suck anyway, so I can give a good guess.

[Lantyssa]

WTH is The Agency? It rings a very muffled bell, but my antiquated synapses just aren't recalling any details.

SOE's free-to-play Spy vs. Spy game.

[WayAbvPar]

FTP and SOE reek of crappiness. Pass.

[DLRiley]

Let see.... Guild Wars 2 for the North America/ Europe crowd with a strong korean following. Aion for everyone who enjoyed lineage 1 and 2 plus maybe a million extra subs in Asia only.

[UnSub]

FTP and SOE reek of crappiness. Pass.

FPS with PvE and PvP based on map objectives. Could be good, but it's been delayed a long time. For PC and PS3.

[DLRiley]

FTP and SOE reek of crappiness. Pass.

FPS with PvE and PvP based on map objectives. Could be good, but it's been delayed a long time. For PC and PS3.

Microsoft makes Halo 4.

[UnSub]

Allegedly launching this year is:

ChampO
Huxley
Chronicles of Spellborn
Star Trek Online
DC Universe Online
The Agency
Aion
Darkfall
Stargate Worlds
All Points Bulletin
Earthrise
Fallen Earth
Jumpgate: Evolution
Runes of Magic

and I'm going to ignore a number of F2Ps and titles that will probably launch but fall outside our usual purview (i.e. Hello Kitty Online, Battlefield Heroes).

Aion is important because it is NCsoft's grab at a success it desperately needs. STO and DCUO are big nerd IP launches. ChampO has a higher profile than a number of the titles on that list, but quite a few studios are taking a shot at success on titles that don't have well known IPs. Stargate may or may not launch at all.

[UnSub]

FTP and SOE reek of crappiness. Pass.

FPS with PvE and PvP based on map objectives. Could be good, but it's been delayed a long time. For PC and PS3.

Microsoft makes Halo 4.

PC and PS3 players shrug their indifference since it won't be launching for those platforms for quite a while.

[schild]

Allegedly launching this year is:

ChampO
Huxley
Chronicles of Spellborn
Star Trek Online
DC Universe Online
The Agency
Aion
Darkfall
Stargate Worlds
All Points Bulletin
Earthrise
Fallen Earth
Jumpgate: Evolution
Runes of Magic

and I'm going to ignore a number of F2Ps and titles that will probably launch but fall outside our usual purview (i.e. Hello Kitty Online, Battlefield Heroes).

Aion is important because it is NCsoft's grab at a success it desperately needs. STO and DCUO are big nerd IP launches. ChampO has a higher profile than a number of the titles on that list, but quite a few studios are taking a shot at success on titles that don't have well known IPs. Stargate may or may not launch at all.

I only really care about The Agency, APB, and DCUO, though I have a tepid curiosity for Fallen Earth.

[Triforcer]

DCUO intrigues me greatly.  Battlefield Heroes is shaping up, to me, to be a return to the simple roots of the franchise and a heck of a game- I think it will suck me in just like BF1942 did at launch (I've hated all the BF games since).

APB I still doubt actually exists, and the Agency looks like it has swallowed the instancing fad lock, stock and barrel.  When did all "MMO" developers suddenly decide that TF2-sized co-op/pvp counts as a real MMO?

[eldaec]

APB I still doubt actually exists, and the Agency looks like it has swallowed the instancing fad lock, stock and barrel.  When did all "MMO" developers suddenly decide that TF2-sized co-op/pvp counts as a real MMO?

Better developers decide that 16 v 16 is enough, than decide that it is ok to pretend the game includes large scale pvp, then have it slow to an unplayable crawl whenever you hit 30 v 30.

You know who you are.

[IainC]

APB I still doubt actually exists...

APB exists. My agency had me up for some roles at Realtime.

[UnSub]

APB I still doubt actually exists...

APB exists. My agency had me up for some roles at Realtime.

Roles you didn't want. 

[IainC]

APB exists. My agency had me up for some roles at Realtime.

Roles you didn't want. 
[/quote]

Roles that never got as far as studio visits and interviews. I wasn't over keen on moving to Dundee either to be honest.

[HaemishM]

ChampO - COX with cell-shading and less interesting mythos - mediocre failure
Huxley - Planetside-esque fail with maybe more epic sauce
Chronicles of Spellborn - UGRINDKEKEKE
Star Trek Online - COX with Star Trek skins - I don't expect it to release in '09
DC Universe Online - To be cancelled
The Agency - To be cancelled
Aion - UGRINDKEKEKE
Darkfall - ROOFLES PWNED
Stargate Worlds - Will never release as Cheyenne will go tits up soon
All Points Bulletin - Indie, likely vaporware
Earthrise - Indie vaporware
Fallen Earth - Indie, likely too much blue sky
Jumpgate: Evolution - NetDevil - amirite?
Runes of Magic - UGRINDKEKEKEKE

Seriously, this year looks like epic fail time for MMOG's. So same as it ever was.

[schild]

DC Universe Online - To be cancelled
The Agency - To be cancelled

lol

[Soln]

What Haemish said.  To the tee.

We will also see drama and jeopardy for SWTOR and WAR as EA is merged/sold-off.  With WAR and/or DAoC being shuttered or at least threatened.  Watch SOE similarly kill off a few of their catalog.

[SnakeCharmer]

With the possible exception of The Agency and JG:E, I think I'd rather hit my best friend in the nuts with bat and tell him his kids are ugly than play any one of those.

[sidereal]

Isn't Blizzard doing a WoW expansion in '09?  Furiousness of the Skeleton Emperor or something?  Or are they pushing that to aught-10 now?

[Hawkbit]

Isn't Blizzard doing a WoW expansion in '09?  Furiousness of the Skeleton Emperor or something?  Or are they pushing that to aught-10 now?

So far it's been one every two years.  They've said on record that their goal is one per year.  I'd like to say they failed... but then I see the sub numbers and the fact that I have to wait 90minutes just to get on my server at 9pm at night. 

[Nebu]

Everyone wants to fail like Blizzard. 

WoW is a phenomenon that continues to amaze and astound me. 

[Triforcer]

DC Universe Online - To be cancelled
The Agency - To be cancelled

lol

Agree.  I don't see that happening unless the whole company goes under.    After all, the D.C. Universe is a can't-miss IP guaranteed to draw millions.

[UnSub]

DC Universe Online - To be cancelled
The Agency - To be cancelled

lol

Agree.  I don't see that happening unless the whole company goes under.    After all, the D.C. Universe is a can't-miss IP guaranteed to draw millions.

DCUO has got all the comic book nerds very excited because it sounds great. Apart from some griping that certain character selections will stop you from using certain costume parts, I haven't seen much criticism. But the tricky part is "sounds". SOE has focused its entire pre-launch info on "We've got Jim Lee doing the art!" which no-one should care about past the the first screenshot or first time they see it animated in 3D (and when also in reality it is Jim Lee's studio, Wildstorm, that is doing the art for it, not Jim Lee himself). A lot more info is needed about DCUO and I think that as soon as it comes and starts to describe the game it is going to turn a lot of players off - I'm expecting very heavy instancing and a world that isn't as big as is being made out.

For ChampO no-one cares about the mythos. What will make or break that title is the ability to have fun in an action title where you get to build your character. If it doesn't have that, then it will flop.

A lot of the other titles I listed will probably either 1) drop to 2010 (Earthrise, STO, APB, DCUO are all possibilities) and / or 2) disappear into vapour (Stargate). It's also going to get a lot harder for independent studios to find investors at this point, which will see some of those indie studios going under.

EDIT: Because it's relevant to the conversation, the Vault has a list up of MMOs for 2009 as well. Gatheryn got me all excited... then I went to look at its official site. No way it launches in Q2 2009 if they only signed up the HeroEngine in December 2008. But that seems to be their intended plan. So long, steampunk MMO.

[Fordel]

The only new MMO worth even remotely paying attention to, is Guild Wars 2.

Even Guild Wars 2 has a 50/50 shot of the devs missing why Guild Wars was fun to begin with and fucking it all up.



The only other would be Blizzards mystery MMO due to be released in 2056 or whatever.


/Nostradamus

[Lantyssa]

The only new MMO worth even remotely paying attention to, is Guild Wars 2.

Even Guild Wars 2 has a 50/50 shot of the devs missing why Guild Wars was fun to begin with and fucking it all up.

It's possible, but I really like what they've done with Guild Wars.  I think they have a better shot than most teams for a second MMO.

[UnSub]

I'll certainly take a look at GW2.

Does Square Enix have a new MMO planned? I'm confused if they've announced another one or not.

[schild]

I'll certainly take a look at GW2.

Does Square Enix have a new MMO planned? I'm confused if they've announced another one or not.

Probably. But not really. They have no real clue what they're doing and the japanese are far too traditional for something crazy to happen. I'm more interested in whether or not Level 5 is going to really expand on what they've done with the White Knight Chronicles online stuff.

[Ghambit]

I wouldnt doubt if a game like BattleForge nets more profit than most of the games on that list.  EA/Phenomic might not sell as many initial boxes or have as many subs... but when it comes to money they've got a good gameplan.
Otherwise, I'm throwing my hat in for Jumpgate and Aion.  Definitely for Aion, and I dont even like high fantasy or anime; let's face it, they killed TR basically to prop up Aion... so it better well frakkin succeed.
If JG can hold onto the EVE burnouts with enough content then it'll be a success as well IMO.   The rest of em?  pfft  The dork in me wishes well on Cryptic for ChampO and STO, but I just dont see them making BOTH those products with any kind of real depth/quality, and we all know STO aint comin out this year anyways.

wtf happened to Black Prophecy?

[UnSub]

I filled out a closed beta app for Black Prophecy a while back, but that's all I know.

[Draegan]

Aion - UGRINDKEKEKE

I'd be willing to bet that the AION grind is just as painful as the WAR grind but not L2 grind.

[Ghambit]

Aion - UGRINDKEKEKE

I'd be willing to bet that the AION grind is just as painful as the WAR grind but not L2 grind.

Only the WAR grind looks like freeze-dried ass compared to the graphical/stylistic goodness that is/will be Aion.  It's one thing to grind while your eyes are bleeding... it's another to grind while feeling all warm and fuzzy inside.
http://www.aiononline.com/us/media/video/video.html

And obviously, Aion has the benefit of grinding in 3-dimensions  :)   Philosophically: does that make it LESS or MORE of a grind?  hmmmm

[LK]

Holy shit, did I just see someone using a Snake Sword as a weapon?

Aion LOOKS impressive but no idea how it'll play. It seems like there was so much over the top shit going on there that it made it hard to know whether it'll work.