Carbine Studios' "Wildstar"

[Ghambit]

This IS old-school Blizzard.

[Sjofn]

How long is this beya going on for?  Is it just for the weekend or longer than that?

You're in for the long haul, however long it goes.

[luckton]

Looking at some live streams, it seems they added male Aurin as playable. 

Female Chua are just within reach!   

[Wizgar]

People might be sick of diku mmo, a LOT of people might be. It's hard to say it's dead as a genre however because genre's don't really die that much.  

The question is not is the genre dying because that's silly, people still play RTS games and those have been around a lot longer and people have been playing diku since muds.

If you define genre death as zero games being produced or played by anyone, then fine, no genre has ever died. If you define it as the genre being creatively bankrupt and commercially exhausted, then MMO has been dying for a while and we're mostly waiting for the last couple waves of stillborn WoW clones before we pull the sheet over its face.

The money is already off trying to clone LoL. Five years from now the MMO genre will be an irrelevant backwater consisting of two million WoW players, a few zombified wrecks from the WoW clone era, a bunch of F2P games that amount to slot machines in fantasy garb, and the occasional kooky indie nobody plays.

Everyone used to wonder what would "dethrone WoW" someday, back when it first took over, and it turns out that the correct answer was "nothing" all along. In terms of mainstream success, the genre began with Ultima Online and will effectively conclude with Blizzard laughing maniacally from atop a throne of skulls until the end of time.

But hey, maybe some apologist can come tell me how the fact that their favorite disgraced shitpile MMO is still clinging grimly to life, covered in the ugly scars of a hasty F2P conversion, means everything is plugging along swimmingly.

[luckton]

Oh, as another follow up to the previous multi-page debate over the game's sexism roots, your cries have been heard.

http://massively.joystiq.com/2014/01/17/wildstar-to-reduce-character-breast-size/

Self-explaining URL is self-explaining.  Also, Chua have underpants now.  YOU'RE WELCOME.   

[Sjofn]

The underwear add is just weird, as before that they pulled off the Donald Duck look just fine. The tighty whities just makes it creepier.

[Lakov_Sanite]

All the doomcasting has gone beyond normal f13 cynicism and taken a right hand turn to crazy-town. How many subscription mmo's have even come out in the last decade? A dozen at most.  There's just no real basis here to form a positive or negative opinion without wild speculation. 

[Threash]

This IS old-school Blizzard.

It might have old school Blizzard people, but Hellgate London proved that is not nearly enough.  By "old school Blizzard" i meant unlimited resources, time and freedom to make a great product.

[luckton]

This IS old-school Blizzard.

It might have old school Blizzard people, but Hellgate London proved that is not nearly enough.  By "old school Blizzard" i meant unlimited resources, time and freedom to make a great product.

I would argue that they have had near-limitless time and resources.  Hellgate had but a scant 2-3 year of dev time from start to "release".  Carbine's been around since '05, announced as a Dev house for NC Soft in '07, and hasn't released any other game.  Assuming that Wildstar is there sole project, we're talking about 9 years of dev time.

[Threash]

This IS old-school Blizzard.

It might have old school Blizzard people, but Hellgate London proved that is not nearly enough.  By "old school Blizzard" i meant unlimited resources, time and freedom to make a great product.

I would argue that they have had near-limitless time and resources.  Hellgate had but a scant 2-3 year of dev time from start to "release".  Carbine's been around since '05, announced as a Dev house for NC Soft in '07, and hasn't released any other game.  Assuming that Wildstar is there sole project, we're talking about 9 years of dev time.

And they went with WoW 1.5 in space! that's not old school Blizzard.

[luckton]

And they went with WoW 1.5 in space! that's not old school Blizzard.

And WoW went with EQ 1.5.  Point?

[sam, an eggplant]

Naw, man, WoW was EQ 2.0. Massive improvements at every turn. But yeah, evolutionary rather than evolutionary ala Guild Wars 2.

[tazelbain]

All the doomcasting has gone beyond normal f13 cynicism and taken a right hand turn to crazy-town. How many subscription mmo's have even come out in the last decade? A dozen at most.  There's just no real basis here to form a positive or negative opinion without wild speculation. 

Of course we can be wrong. But if you aren't extremely skeptical about a raiding focused, sub-based, MMO releasing in 2014, there is something in the your eyes preventing you from seeing state the MMO market clearly.

[luckton]

Naw, man, WoW was EQ 2.0. Massive improvements at every turn. But yeah, evolutionary rather than evolutionary ala Guild Wars 2.

Fair enough, though also consider that EQ really didn't change jack shit until serious competition entered the scene.  DAoC got the ball rolling in a big way QoL-wise, though until ToA came along it never truly focused on PvE like EQ did.  WoW sealed the deal in a number of ways, for sure.  I think Wildstar can/is going farther in some areas, but it's hard to take on a beast like WoW, since it, unlike EQ, actually did continue to improve itself in order to stave off competition.  I would dare say that if you compared today's WoW to WoW at launch, you'd almost be talking about two different games.

This kinda goes into the same thread I had with Falc a page or two back: We've been so embellished with MMOs at this point; what would it really take for you to call something WoW 2.0? 

[Paelos]

Yeah I would say the basis for concern is the shitty market at large for MMOs. Unless the game is obviously providing a "killer app" of innovation, there's every reason to use prior expectations and apply them to this project.

[Lakov_Sanite]

I think the argument that this model is old is bonkers.  The mmo market has been flooded by half-assed attempts that are throwing off any kind of curve for a successful formula. To say "raiding/subcription based mmo's are old and there is no market for them" is based solely on the history of less than 20 games.  While we're at it we might as will judge movies based on the amount of shitty mockbusters that are released.

[Draegan]

Yeah I would say the basis for concern is the shitty market at large for MMOs. Unless the game is obviously providing a "killer app" of innovation, there's every reason to use prior expectations and apply them to this project.

Releasing a quest treadmill game into this market is pretty dumb. Unless the game has some truly awesome systems in place, it's pointless; especially at some of these budget numbers. Unfortunately Wildstar's class system and combat system are shallow and boring.

[Paelos]

I think the argument that this model is old is bonkers.  The mmo market has been flooded by half-assed attempts that are throwing off any kind of curve for a successful formula. To say "raiding/subcription based mmo's are old and there is no market for them" is based solely on the history of less than 20 games.  While we're at it we might as will judge movies based on the amount of shitty mockbusters that are released.

How can you consider SWTOR half assed? It had one of the more popular licenses, full financial backing, and at the time one of the more popular studios behind it. The killer app was supposed to be voice acting which was frankly great.

And even that failed at the sub model. Exactly how many iterations to you need to understand that a market is monopolized?

[Nebu]

SWTOR failed the sub model because the combat was shitty.  Most people that played SWTOR realized after a month or two that they would rather spend their $$$ playing WoW and returned.  Ok... that or they realized that the MMO genre wasn't going anywhere and decided not to give anyone their sub $$$ and play GW2 or LoL for free.

[Paelos]

I see no reason why the xpac model can't be successful. WoW just came in at a time when they got two bites at the apple. However, I think this next xpac is going to be a harder sell, which is why they are working out these annual pass things. I think in general people are sort of okay paying the sub OR buying the box, but they aren't okay doing both anymore. That is sliding.

[sam, an eggplant]

TOR failed for many reasons. The main problem, as I saw it, was that TOR's actual questing and gameplay competed with WoW circa 2007, but it released in 2011. It was grindy, and repetitive, and forced you to run back and forth to finish quests, and had group-only content.

WoW actually improved on Everquest. TOR did not improve on WoW.

From what I've seen in dev and media streams, Wildstar doesn't really improve on WoW either, but it does at least compete with modern-day 2014 WoW. It has the modern quest style and all the modern conveniences.

[Paelos]

Nothing has ever competed with WoW except WoW's own stupidity. I think we'd have learned that by now, but it seems we haven't.

[luckton]

TOR failed for many reasons. The main problem, as I saw it, was that TOR's actual questing and gameplay competed with WoW circa 2007, but it released in 2011. It was grindy, and repetitive, and forced you to run back and forth to finish quests, and had group-only content.

WoW actually improved on Everquest. TOR did not improve on WoW.

This.  Had TOR released at being on-par with anything and everything that WoW had up to 2011, and then went above and beyond with the story-work, companions, ship battles, and all, I'd still be playing it.  To this day SWTOR has yet to catch up all the way, and I don't think they're even trying to anymore.  It's about milking the SW fan boys for all they have via microtransactions.  

As I said before, I think Wildstar understands and has learned this concept, and will deliver a current day WoW QoL, and then adding/twisting their own way of things a bit.

[sam, an eggplant]

Well one argument is that if you don't offer something truly superior why the fuck would anyone bother to switch, right?

But that's looking at MMOs like cellphone service. MMOs aren't a utility you pay every month, they're entertainment that can be consumed. So if Wildstar is no better than WoW, at the very least it offers new fresh content to chow down on. If it offers an equivalent experience, and releases during a lull in WoW expansions/content, it could very well find its place in the market.

[tazelbain]

Assessing a game's prospect in the MMO market based on the idea it *could* be a genre-redefining hit makes as much sense as planing your personal budget based on the idea that you *could* win the lottery jackpot.

[Paelos]

Well one argument is that if you don't offer something truly superior why the fuck would anyone bother to switch, right?

But that's looking at MMOs like cellphone service. MMOs aren't a utility you pay every month, they're entertainment that can be consumed. So if Wildstar is no better than WoW, at the very least it offers new fresh content to chow down on. If it offers an equivalent experience, and releases during a lull in WoW expansions/content, it could very well find its place in the market.

Because there's a barrier to entry in a box cost, and a sub fee. F2P games have no such barriers.

[luckton]

Well one argument is that if you don't offer something truly superior why the fuck would anyone bother to switch, right?

But that's looking at MMOs like cellphone service. MMOs aren't a utility you pay every month, they're entertainment that can be consumed. So if Wildstar is no better than WoW, at the very least it offers new fresh content to chow down on. If it offers an equivalent experience, and releases during a lull in WoW expansions/content, it could very well find its place in the market.

Because there's a barrier to entry in a box cost, and a sub fee. F2P games have no such barriers.

I have yet to find a game that's F2P that gives me everything that WoW does, both content wise and QoL-wise.

[Malakili]

Because there's a barrier to entry in a box cost, and a sub fee. F2P games have no such barriers.

Not to mention all the sunk cost of whatever you've put into another MMO.  It's been a while since I've given it a real go at this point so maybe I'd be up for it again if the right game comes along, but there was a long time where I had no interest in starting from scratch yet again in a new MMO.  Particularly when my quality of life from having a well geared, rich character in WoW.  

Of course, that kind of presupposes the leveling experience is garbage to begin with.  If some MMORPG comes along that is actually fun to play for its own sake while leveling, then this problem starts to solve itself.  But really, there's nothing crappier in my opinion that that level say, 10-max level range in most of these games.  The initial newness factor and fast leveling wears off.  And then your in that zone where leveling your crafting costs far more than you can possibly afford while actually leveling, you can't afford the best bags available to inventory management becomes a store, you don't have all your best abilities yet.  Well, you get the idea.  

Leveling up my Xth character in WoW with gold from my main (even before Cata when they made leveling zones not suck) was a far better experience than starting WAR or Rift or Guild Wars 2  from scratch.

[sam, an eggplant]

Because there's a barrier to entry in a box cost, and a sub fee. F2P games have no such barriers.

Yep and that will limit its audience, but price sensitivity varies with interest and income. If Wildstar releases and reviews/the hivemind promises me 100 hours of WoW-quality leveling (remember, I consider the WoW leveling game one of the best gaming experiences ever), I'll pick it up day one. I don't care about the price, I care about the quality of my entertainment. If they build a core of guys like me, the game will do fine.

Realistically it'll go F2P/microtransactions after 6-12 months, because that's the optimal way to monetize a MMO that isn't wildly WoW-level successful out of the gate. But I'll pay for a box and subscription if I'm having fun. Sure.

[luckton]

Keep in mind that this game is taking the EVE Online approach to subs.  You can buy game-time with in-game money.  Technically, once you "make it" in the game, it can pay for itself.

[tazelbain]

Realistically it'll go F2P/microtransactions after 6-12 months, because that's the optimal way to monetize a MMO that isn't wildly WoW-level successful out of the gate.

This is interesting an hypothesis, I am not sure if well have a clear answer. I do think there are plenty opportunity costs and development costs here. Pausing game development for  6 to 9 months to retool the business model isn't cheep.

[Threash]

Well one argument is that if you don't offer something truly superior why the fuck would anyone bother to switch, right?

But that's looking at MMOs like cellphone service. MMOs aren't a utility you pay every month, they're entertainment that can be consumed. So if Wildstar is no better than WoW, at the very least it offers new fresh content to chow down on. If it offers an equivalent experience, and releases during a lull in WoW expansions/content, it could very well find its place in the market.

Because there's a barrier to entry in a box cost, and a sub fee. F2P games have no such barriers.

I have yet to find a game that's F2P that gives me everything that WoW does, both content wise and QoL-wise.

You could say the same thing about sub games though.

[Nebu]

You could say the same thing about sub games though.

Have we had a AAA MMO that was F2P from the very beginning?  Keep in mind that GW2 and TSW had a box cost.

[sam, an eggplant]

This is interesting an hypothesis, I am not sure if well have a clear answer. I do think there are plenty opportunity costs and development costs here. Pausing game development for  6 to 9 months to retool the business model isn't cheep.

If you're making a MMO today you should be thinking about and developing for the F2P transition from day one. If you think about it, it's a win/win. Couple of options.

a) Your game sells like gangbusters. It's the next WoW. You never need to go F2P, and you wasted money on the unutilized F2P development. But you're snorting grade-A columbian yayo off LA 10/10 stripper titties anyway, so who cares? This is super unlikely.

b) Your game sells 1.5m copies at $60 apiece then drops to 250k subscriptions after 6 months. You go F2P, millions of people sign up, and you continue to realize revenue on your investment through smart non-punitive microtransactions. You support the title, you make a nice revenue, and players are happy.

c) Just like B, except you never prepared for F2P and are forced to do it SOE-style. You end up spending more money, and the game wasn't designed with F2P in the back of your mind, so it doesn't do as well as B.

You could also d) start off F2P, but that leaves money on the table from all those box sales and 6-12 months of subscriptions. Then there's e) Buy to play, which leaves sub fees on the table. Only my solution, starting as a traditional $60 box with subs then transitioning to F2P when subs drop, segments the market to maximize total revenue.

[MediumHigh]

Games like League of Legends, Runes of Magic, and even Maple Story were effectively killing the sub based mmo market. Guild Wars was the nail (one of many but the biggest nail because of its budget), Guild Wars 2 is the hammer. A big budget, open world, pve game sustain by freemum with an actual AAA budget behind it. No arguments holds up as long as Guild Wars 2 servers are on.