The Elder Scrolls Online

[Cyrrex]

SWG (yes I went there) also had one around NGE time (might have been slightly before because I got a couple of bits from it but quit soon after NGE hit)

No reason not to bring it up...not only did it have them, but one of them was HUUUUUUUGE.  Lots and lots of holgrams for decoration purposes.  The coup de grace was the Anti-Decay Kit.  Very controversial, but a fucking great gift.  Or maybe that wasn't the same kind of reward?  Can't recall why we received them.

[DraconianOne]

SWG (yes I went there) also had one around NGE time (might have been slightly before because I got a couple of bits from it but quit soon after NGE hit)

No reason not to bring it up...not only did it have them, but one of them was HUUUUUUUGE.  Lots and lots of holgrams for decoration purposes.  The coup de grace was the Anti-Decay Kit.  Very controversial, but a fucking great gift.  Or maybe that wasn't the same kind of reward?  Can't recall why we received them.

Length of service. They ended up giving away houses and all sorts iirc.

[Lucas]

More layoffs at Zenimax Online:
http://www.pcgamer.com/2014/09/03/the-elder-scrolls-online-studio-zenimax-online-hit-with-layoffs/

Dunno if it's something similar to what happened back in June of if the axe hit other positions beside CS, this time.

[Falconeer]

Someone I know who works there has just been laid off, and they are NOT in CS.

[Senses]

cycle of life.

[Paelos]

That console release is never happening.

[Surlyboi]

cycle of life.

[Ginaz]

So...is this game and Wildstar ready for the graveyard?  I would think so.

[sam, an eggplant]

The teams behind ESO and wildstar aren't newbies; Firor and Gaffney have been around the grindstone a couple times each. I am downright astonished that neither seems to have prepared for the possibility of the subscription model failing to support their title. It seems like such a neophyte mistake that I honestly assumed they both had B2P/F2P frameworks fully coded and ready to go, and both had launched as subscription titles in a frothy mélange of aspirational optimism (Who knows, maybe we'll be the next WoW!) and cynical market segmentation (Maximize revenue from initial adopters, then pivot to F2P in 3-6 months!).

But no. It seems neither team considered the possibility of failure. They're sticking to subscriptions, death spiral be damned. And so, here we are.

[Kail]

I am downright astonished that neither seems to have prepared for the possibility of the subscription model failing to support their title.

Do we know that?  I'd still put money on them going F2P fairly soon, just not right now.  Games only been live for like five months, and even SWtOR lasted for closer to seven.  I'd be pretty shocked at any MMO that honestly doesn't have an F2P plan at some level of development (I suspect even WoW has one) but it's not something you'd admit to or put in a press release until you have a definite release date.

edit: oops, five months, according to wikipedia, my bad

[satael]

ESO's f2p plans might have been sidetracked with their efforts going into the delayed console versions of the game. f2p might have been meant to hit pc version shortly before the console launch to make it part of the game in the console versions too.

(Then again they might have actually believed that subs would be enough to sustain the game in the long run especially if they had gotten the console versions released as planned)

[Draegan]

Well hopefully this gets Sage and Firor and all the higher up devs at Wildstar to never make a game again.

[Lantyssa]

I imagine it's more likely they had their heads in the sand and really didn't know the sub model is dead for new games without putting out something so good it's more a matter of luck and serendipity than having even the best team ever.

[sam, an eggplant]

Despite the preponderance of evidence, I still don't think the sub model is dead.

ESO and Wildstar should have done exactly what I said earlier-- put their best foot forward and release with subscriptions, because who knows, maybe they'll cage lightning in a bottle and become the third breakout MMO success? You don't target failure, after all, right?

But realistically, you have that B2P or F2P option ready to go the instant it becomes clear that you aren't going to be WoW2. You don't flounder in a death spiral for six months like ESO. You rip the band-aid off and go B2P on day 91.

Oh, and you don't do 1999-era sharded servers in 2014. That was just silly.

[Ingmar]

So...is this game and Wildstar ready for the graveyard?  I would think so.

They can't go to the graveyard if they never got subforums in the first place.

[Draegan]

I think a sub model works just fine for a game. You just need a game that's actually worth a sub. A DIKU clone or an Elder Scrolls Abortion is not worth it.

[Malakili]

I think a sub model works just fine for a game. You just need a game that's actually worth a sub. A DIKU clone or an Elder Scrolls Abortion is not worth it.

Has there been a successful subscription based game in.... years?  Not ones that continue to live from a decade ago, but a new release with that model.

I say that as someone who would prefer to pay a monthly fee to playing a free to play game.  It just doesn't seem viable anymore.

[Draegan]

Define years. People still pay subs for RIFT and SWTOR. There was a sub thing for HEX for a short while.

[Ard]

Has there been a successful subscription based game in.... years?  Not ones that continue to live from a decade ago, but a new release with that model.

I say that as someone who would prefer to pay a monthly fee to playing a free to play game.  It just doesn't seem viable anymore.

Final Fantasy 14.  Somewhere between 1 and 2 million players.  Saved Square from bankruptcy.

[Shatter]

I think a sub model works just fine for a game. You just need a game that's actually worth a sub. A DIKU clone or an Elder Scrolls Abortion is not worth it.

Has there been a successful subscription based game in.... years?  Not ones that continue to live from a decade ago, but a new release with that model.

I say that as someone who would prefer to pay a monthly fee to playing a free to play game.  It just doesn't seem viable anymore.

FFXIV has been very successful as a sub model, out 1 year.  As someone said, basically pulled SE out of the fire. 

[Malakili]

Define years. People still pay subs for RIFT and SWTOR. There was a sub thing for HEX for a short while.

I don't mean free to play with an option subscription/"gold" membership, etc.  I guess this Final Fantasy game is full sub based though?  That's neat.  Almost makes me want to check it out just for that.

[Draegan]

Why doesn't a F2P game with a sub option not count? People are still paying subscription money. SWTOR is doing pretty great. Rift is about to launch another expansion.

[Lantyssa]

Given the evidence displayed, I'll repeat my comment.  A sub-game only works if it's a really good game.  (I consider FFXIV worth it, and the sub keeps it from having some of the side-effects of being f2p)

Pretty much everything released in the last few years has been far better off as f2p.  The conversion from sub to f2p might have given them a publicity boost they wouldn't have gotten otherwise, but we're reaching enough time passed since this trend started that starting out with a sub will hurt more than being f2p initially.

Unless a really good game.  And there's just not a lot of those released.  Ever.  FFXIV didn't even get it right the first time...

[tazelbain]

It might count with a subscription you absolutely don't need to speend money but really most subs in f2p games are "monthly bulk discounts" rather then "all access pass". So, I can be nickel&dimed *and* have a monthly fee. Worst of both worlds. I tend avoid an MMOG with a sub of any form because I know generally the developer has every reason to make unsub's life miserable to induce them to go sub. Homie don't play that.

[Nebu]

It might count with a subscription you absolutely don't need to speend money but really most subs in f2p games are "monthly bulk discounts" rather then "all access pass". So, I can be nickel&dimed *and* have a monthly fee. Worst of both worlds. I tend avoid an MMOG with a sub of any form because I know generally the developer has every reason to make unsub's life miserable to induce them to go sub. Homie don't play that.

I think people should watch this.  

F2P is currently broken

I don't care for the arms race that occurs in many F2P games.  Outside of WG and Riot, F2P is a clever disguise for pay2win.  That's why I think a sub model is actually better for most players.  The sub should just be cheaper. 

[Paelos]

I would play any sub game right now if it was $5 a month.

[Nebu]

I would play any sub game right now if it was $5 a month.

That's my point exactly.  I think a $4.99 sub could replace F2P and do quite well.  It just won't attract the investment $$$ needed to make a game in today's market. 

[Hawkbit]

That's about what Club Penguin and Pixie Hollow subs cost.  So... the games are out there at the price point you want to pay.

The problem is NOT the price point of the sub.  The problem is the games are not worth paying for.  Make me a game that I don't want to stop playing and I'll pay $30 a month. 

[Lantyssa]

Free Realms was that price, too, with a lifetime sub option around $30-40.  Basically the GW2 model of buy once play forever if you didn't want a sub.

[Paelos]

The problem is NOT the price point of the sub.  The problem is the games are not worth paying for.  Make me a game that I don't want to stop playing and I'll pay $30 a month. 

No, the problem is the price point. Some games are worth more, some are worth less. The problem is that they don't adjust the sub.

There's no way Elder Scrolls should be on the same sub price as WoW. None. They would attract more players and more sales by not having that sub price in place.

[KallDrexx]

It's hard to convince a company to go the sub route, whether it's $5 or $15 a month.  The thing is that companies have shown that the average f2p player that pays anything pays more than $15 a month, it's just spread out a bit more and feels a bit less mandatory so it's not totally obvious to them like a sub is.

[Malakili]

No, the problem is the price point. Some games are worth more, some are worth less. The problem is that they don't adjust the sub.

Well, sort of, but the problem is a lot of these games aren't worth "free."  Time is more valuable the the cost.  If I can afford 5 bucks a month for a game I can afford 15.   Give me a game I want to spend my gaming time on, and I'll pay for it.  But I'm not going to pay less for a worse game just because it's less, I don't have time to be playing mediocre games just because they could save me a few bucks compared to WoW (or whatever).

[Paelos]

I can afford the $15 too. That's not the issue. I can afford to go to the movies for $15, but it's not worth it to me. That's why I go to matinees for $10 if I ever go.

I'm a price sensitive person. Some people aren't at all. But I would think if you took a poll from ex-WoW players, the reason they aren't playing right now is because the sub wasn't worth the content. But what if you polled them on a reduced price sub? Is there are point where they just say yeah, that's worth the amount of content, I don't feel like I have to log in more than once a week for $5?

[Fabricated]

I just don't have the same amount of contiguous time anymore to dedicate to MMOs for $15 to be worth it per month.

I can put like 10-15 hours a week into a game easy; I do that with Payday. I just don't usually marathon it for 8+ hours. I'm not a "micro-session" guy either who only pops on for like 30 minutes at a time, but towards the end of me playing MMOs actively I found myself logging on and doing a dungeon or two, then maybe wanting to do something else but realizing that while I had time to commit still I didn't have THAT much time. So I idled around chatting with people. So I quit.

[Fabricated]

Oh yeah, I posted this in the topic about ~2ish years ago at this point, guess where we are?



1. Rumors surface of a big IP AAA MMO done by some studio that has a good enough track record that people are curious.
2. As info trickles in fanboys get hardons, everyone speculates, IS THE HOLY TRINITY REALLY GONE THIS TIME? MAN I HOPE THE PVP IS LIKE DAOC!!
3. Breathless sorta-gameplay video of early beta/alpha product with devs talking over it about how they're really gonna do it right this time and how excited they are.
4. Fan news site opens.
5. Beta; game at best looks promising if they fix XYZ.
6. Game comes out, XYZ aren't fixed.
7. XYZ are never fixed, or fixed so slowly people get frustrated. Some big technical issues; servers, client, website, whatever.
8. Game does not immediately accrue WoW's numbers, publisher shitcans 3/4ths of the staff. Every big name creative head leaves.
9. Game stagnates, loses subs, everyone but dedicated fans move on.
10. F2P/Maintenance Mode.