Wait for it, here it comes....

[voodoolily]

We totally fucking  Katamari



btw, I stole this from Sauced's blog. He fully deserves the credit for this one.

[Sky]

Oh, I thought this was more ninja pr0n.


Darn.

[voodoolily]

I shoulda been a little clearer. These are t shirts.

[Rasix]

Bored at work. Those are fun to make.

[Hoax]

Unfortunately this is the only response appropriate to that pic.

WTFBBQROFLCAKES!ONE!!!11

Ahhh I've always wanted to say something like that around these here parts.

[Rasix]

Cliche, yet fun!  Woo, holidays are dull around the office.  Perhaps I should try working.

[schild]

Ya know. I didn't notice the river styx before in that little drawing. That's damned funneh.

You should look into doing that more. With other color ink and more fictional bodies of water.

[schild]

It's so ugly I kinda want one.

[Signe]

I don't understand this fad.   :-(

[Sky]

Kitty = Vagina

[Signe]

Please don't confuse your girlfriend's pussy with your kitty.   :-(  One of them has teeth.

[Sky]

I was just explaining the fad. Mreowr

[SuperPopTart]

It's so ugly I kinda want one.

Maybe I'm just in my normal bad mood but..

Le Sigh.

Buy manly things. Hello Kitty = Not Manly.

Did that sound ditzy?

[WayAbvPar]

Please don't confuse your girlfriend's pussy with your kitty.   :-(  One of them has teeth.

You should see that cat gum his kibble!

[schild]

Nothing to do with vagina. The Hello Kitty ipod is just so out there. It's existance can't be justified. It's why they made so few.

[Sky]

Everything to do with vagina. HELLO VAGINA! With a little ribbon. Because every vagina is a winner.

[gweebo]

 

[schild]

You're not fooling anyone, cockmitten.

[Shockeye]

gweebo a.k.a. lamerzsux a.k.a. thejeni, I would appreciate it if you would stick to a single account. Thank you.

[jpark]

It's so ugly I kinda want one.

You can't.  Only Fanbois of Apple buy such products.  Otherwise, that might look like market expansion  :-D

[schild]

You can't.  Only Fanbois of Apple buy such products.  Otherwise, that might look like market expansion  :-D

Way to miss the point.

1. I'd be buying a Hello Kitty product that should never have existed. Are 5 year olds running around with iPods?
2. The iPod Market and the mp3 player market are two different things. Just like the MMOG market and the World of Warcraft/Blizzard market are two different things.

[jpark]

2. The iPod Market and the mp3 player market are two different things. Just like the MMOG market and the World of Warcraft/Blizzard market are two different things.

That was meant in pure humor but your post is forcing me to respond.  Okay mate - drag out your text book - what are the operational definitions used to identify whether two products are in the same market or different markets?

Keywords: substitute technologies, porter analysis, zero sum game.

[schild]

Ok, since I have to spell it out.

No MMOGs is World of Warcraft. World of Warcraft however is an MMOG. Chase a different market and you'll get different customers. I think it's noble to want to be as big as City of Heroes or Everquest. I also think it's reasonable. However, I think it's stupid to want to be as big (and by default compete with) Blizzard and World of Warcraft.

No Mp3 players are an iPod. An iPod however is an Mp3 player. It's noble to want to make money selling Mp3 players, but you're never going to be iPod.

Both World of Warcraft and iPods are outlier anomalies in their markets. They are anomalies. Which comes to the crux of my entire argument - when talking about the potential customer base for a new MMOG or mp3 players - you NEED to remove iPods and WoW from the math. Compete against the Creatives and NCSofts of the world. Do not compete against the Blizzards and Apples of the world. There are still millions of potential customers for both markets.

[jpark]

Ok, since I have to spell it out.

Mate you don't know what a market is.

No MMOGs is World of Warcraft. World of Warcraft however is an MMOG. Chase a different market and you'll get different customers.

If someone plays Wow at the expense of time they might have had playing another game - those games are competitors.  I play WoW - if it were not for that game - I would be playing CoH or EQ2 at the extreme.  Products are by definition in the same market if the revenue stream from one impacts the revenue stream of the other (inversely).

No Mp3 players are an iPod. An iPod however is an Mp3 player. It's noble to want to make money selling Mp3 players, but you're never going to be iPod.

Pull back.  If someone buys an Ipod - does it reduce the chances they will also buy an MP3 player (or vice versa)?  If so, there is competition and by definition they are in the same market.

Your turn - tell me why I have painted your view with an inaccurate brush.

[schild]

If someone plays Wow at the expense of time they might have had playing another game - those games are competitors.  I play WoW - if it were not for that game - I would be playing CoH or EQ2 at the extreme.  Products are by definition in the same market if the revenue stream from one impacts the revenue stream of the other (inversely).

Ok, if I could scream over the internet, I would. You are an MMOG player playing WoW. You will play the next shiny that comes up. You aren't what I'm talking about. You are not important to Blizzard. At all.

As has been proven with Starcraft and Warcraft, there is a HUGE contingent of players who don't leave Blizzard games for the new shiny UNLESS it's another blizzard game. In other words, Blizzard controls it's own market. It tells the people where to play, what to play and when to play.

The reality of it is, no one is going to beat Blizzard at this game. There isn't a bigger market for companies to pull from. Vanguard won't do it, DC Comics Online won't do it, RF Online won't do it. Tabula Rasa has a chance of making people realize there's something beyond WoW. Unfortunately Tabula Rasa won't do it. I see WoW either growing or remaining very stable over the next 5 years. Like ALL Blizzard games. That's just how it is. They make making moneyhats in the PC arena look soooooooooo easy. It isn't as easy as they make it look. They are the anomaly (as I've said before).

Pull back.  If someone buys an Ipod - does it reduce the chances they will also buy an MP3 player (or vice versa)?  If so, there is competition and by definition they are in the same market.

The likelihood of them buying another iPod is good. Apple has made a good total package with the iPod. The chances of them moving to another product is very very low. Apple's worst competition is themself. They could ruin their own market. But no one else is going to do it.

[schild]

Something that bothers me. I think people think I'm knocking WoW when I say all this. I'm not. It's a very streamlined MMOG. Everyone from the hardcore to the drooling retards can enjoy it. Just like every other MMOG. But if you think people are going to move to The Next Big Thing like they have with every other MMOG, that's just deluded. The next BIG game will maybe MAYBE get half of what World of Warcraft has now. The only thing that's stopping World of Warcraft is World of Warcraft II.

[jpark]

Market Definitions

Start screaming Schild.  When your done - pull out a marketing text book or spend time with a real product manager.

I realize your saying that Blizzard players will only play blizzard products and would NEVER try another game.  Let's call them Children of Orwell    The children of Orwell are not, according to you, part of the market since they will disappear when WoW does.  But that still does not matter to the defintion of a market I note for you pedantic pleasure below.

A premise you have repeated in the above posts is that WoW and the rest of the MMMORPG industry are actually different markets.  They aren't - it's just a straight definition which I have stated above.  As soon as their revenue streams exist at the expense of each other - they are the same market.  That does not necessarily invalidate the rest of your argument - but your throwing around basic concepts incorrectly in my view.

This is categorically incorrect on an almost empirical basis.  You can philosophize about this until your blue in the face but that is just the way it is.  When you get revenue competiition - you exist in the same market.  I realize you see the type of player I am as not relevant - but in the practical business sense I am.  When I play WoW - I am not playing Coh/EQ2.

The above is not central to testing your point of view - it's just sloppy thinking.  They are the same markets - for now - even if they are Children of Orwell.  I think now would be a good time for you spend some effort and interview a product manager (have you ever spoken to one?  A real one - not from a local 10 man operation) and post your questions here on F13 on the front page on how companies define competition and markets.

Your Bigger Picture Point of View

As has been proven with Starcraft and Warcraft, there is a HUGE contingent of players who don't leave Blizzard games for the new shiny UNLESS it's another blizzard game. In other words, Blizzard controls it's own market. It tells the people where to play, what to play and when to play.
).

I am still looking for this player.  Among my 5 RL friends we play blizzard games.  We play other games.  As a matter of fact - we were so fed up after EQ2 we left the MMORPG industry - and spent 6 months away from MMMORPGS (market contraction).  We took a pass on FFXI and Guild Wars.  When WOW came out we started back into the MMORGP arena again (market expansion).

No one on these boards has confessed to the customer description you have described above.  Do you have friends like this - that fit the description you describe above?

If peak sales for EQ were 400K when it was almost the only game in town, would it be fair to say then that WoWs sub base of 5 million users, according to you 4.5 million of them are blizzard fanbois that you describe above?  That a 100% of the these players - Children of Orwell - will NEVER try another MMORPG?  A 100 percent is going to sound facetious - so what's the number - 90%?  So 10% of this fanbois might try another game - which means 500 K new subscriptions to the industry as a whole. 

Tell me - what's the percentage forecast from you that makes your argument stand-up?

[Paelos]

Omg, semantics slapfight. Isn't that when we know the debate has hit rock bottom?

That being said, I think it's naive to believe that a great majority of WoW's players aren't part of a total market due to product loyalty, or an expansion of that market. You could conclude that players would never have tried an MMOG if Blizzard wasn't the one to introduce them to the medium. However, you cannot conclude that once introduced, said people would only buy another MMOG if Blizzard made it.

For example, many may not have been familiar with RTS when Warcraft II made a big splash. It was my first RTS game. However, I have since been introduced to other RTS games that I enjoy because of that eye-opening Blizzard experience. Therefore, I believe that discounting the Blizzard numbers as non-market growth because they love the name is conjecture at best.

[jpark]

Omg, semantics slapfight. Isn't that when we know the debate has hit rock bottom?

For the most part - but as I recognized arguments about market defiintion did not invalidate Schilds argument. 

On the other hand, if you call two products as if they belong to different markets that has huge business development implications.  Identifying markets and your competitors is quite consequential.  If you believe your product operates in a different market...

If Schild would sit back for a moment what he is talking about is Brand loyalty.  That is not a new concept - every company has it.  But we still do market assessment and compeititor anaysis the same way.  You might say there is a high switching costs for the Blizzard Brand - but that's just another variable - one that can change and one that we always take into account in looking at competition.  It makes no sense to argue that based on brand loyalty or high switching costs - that these are ergo different markets and that customer flow cannot occur between the products.

(this is the tongue of my past life as a stock analyst)

[Strazos]

To a degree, Schild is very correct.

I've known plenty of people who pretty much only play Blizzard games, whether they be WC2, WC3, Starcraft, or Diablo1/2.

They Do Not Play Anything Else.

Also, incidentally, I had classes with a few people who were now playing WoW (I can't think of an exact number, lets say 4). Only one of them plays games other than WoW. But those other guys? They hardly even knew other such MMOGs existed outside of WoW; WoW was their first, and they had no intention or desire to switch. I didn't really get into the whys of their playing WoW though.

So, this i just the long way of saying that some people only play Blizzard games, whether it is a conscious choice or not. And a lot of people that are playing WoW? It's their first MMO, they hardly know anything else exists, and they're probably not ever going to switch, except to Blizzard's next game. These sorts of players just simply are not available for other games.

[Piperfan]

It's their first MMO, they hardly know anything else exists, and they're probably not ever going to switch, except to Blizzard's next game. These sorts of players just simply are not available for other games.

In 1999 I started playing Asheron's Call. When asked, I said I was not ever going to switch, except maybe to Turbine's next on-line game. I was for a time (1999-2003) not available for other games. That changed. The 'switching costs' variable jpark talks about was met for me. 

And first does not mean always "First, Last & Only". My first was a blonde. I moved on to also play with redheads and brunettes. I still like blondes but my tastes matured.

[schild]

If peak sales for EQ were 400K when it was almost the only game in town, would it be fair to say then that WoWs sub base of 5 million users, according to you 4.5 million of them are blizzard fanbois that you describe above?  That a 100% of the these players - Children of Orwell - will NEVER try another MMORPG?  A 100 percent is going to sound facetious - so what's the number - 90%?  So 10% of this fanbois might try another game - which means 500 K new subscriptions to the industry as a whole. 

Tell me - what's the percentage forecast from you that makes your argument stand-up?

If 10% of the Blizzard fanbois had tried Rise of Nations, it would have sold twice as many copies. If there are 500k new subscriptions to the industry as a whole, wake me up when another MMOG hits 2 million customers. Don't get me wrong, if I personally was trying to get VC funding, WoW would be my big discussion point. I'd go in there and be like "THIS MMOG COULD SUSTAIN ITSELF ON 5% OF THEIR CUSTOMERS" or sommat, because it probably could. 250,000 is a paltry number for Blizzard -  but I wouldn't believe I could do it and neither would the VC folks. Because history has shown. consistantly that you simply do not steal customers from Blizzard. It just doesn't happen.

Genre doesn't matter for Blizzard. They made a dungeon hack and slash game - more people bought it than any other hack n slash. Real time strategy? Consistantly destroying every competitor while only outselling themselves. Same thing will happen with MMOGs. There's simply too much competition and it's spread far too thin to judge how much WoW has expanded the market if at all. (Though I'm still sticking by my prediction of the latter). You've got too many shitty big budget MMOGs coming out, too many complete unknowns and too much independent non-streamlined bullshit. The MMOG market will grow on it's own accord, but not on Blizzards watch. They will continue to grow until they cap out in an unobtainable Blizzard way. You want to make money in this market? Stop making bullshit fantasy MMOGs for the PC because WoW has you beat. Webzen is a step ahead of everyone else: Huxley. Yea, that's right, I'm going to go out on a limb and say they'll break barriers faster than any upcoming PC MMOG will - though it is coming out on PC before the 360. I'm interested in seeing what that does to it's market.

No one can do it better than Blizzard. Blizzard fans like streamlining, they line up in massive amounts. They zerg rush Blizzard games. And 5 Million is kind of a weak number for a Blizzard game. They aren't done yet. The rest of the MMOG market, which we at f13 keep a pretty good pulse on doesn't stand a goddamn chance against Blizzard. I'd be willing to say there's SOME chance of thievery from Blizzards customer base if anything was coming out that I think stood a chance. But that's just not happening. WoW will point, laugh, pull down their pants, and introduce some other bit of Warcraft history and rake in more customers. Wow has shown us one other thing - which many of us at f13 are to blame for - no one was tired of DikuMuds. People hemmorhaged from other MMOGs like bees swatted their nest. Thusly saying that Dikumud is a good way to make a game. And until another game beats WoW that isn't based on Dikumud at all, we're doomed for an eternity of the exact same shit on the PC. In other words...

I wish I was wrong.

[schild]

It's their first MMO, they hardly know anything else exists, and they're probably not ever going to switch, except to Blizzard's next game. These sorts of players just simply are not available for other games.

In 1999 I started playing Asheron's Call. When asked, I said I was not ever going to switch, except maybe to Turbine's next on-line game. I was for a time (1999-2003) not available for other games. That changed. The 'switching costs' variable jpark talks about was met for me. 

And first does not mean always "First, Last & Only". My first was a blonde. I moved on to also play with redheads and brunettes. I still like blondes but my tastes matured.

This is going to sound silly, but Turbine isn't Blizzard. Blizzard fans are a different race of fan. They're like the hardcore contingent of Nintendo fans who still think Nintendo is the top of the heap.

[Rodent]

They're like the hardcore contingent of Nintendo fans who still think Nintendo is the top of the heap.

Since Sega started to suck, in my heart Nintendo really is the topdog. And I really like Blizzard aswell, they have yet to release a game I didn't have fun with for atleast alittle while.

[Piperfan]

I will allow that huge boatloads think Blizzard can do no wrong. I just don't think the exclusivity spoken of is something that will always remain. Thats my point. The numbers do speak loudly about the current situation though and I will bow to your description of today. What people do tomorrow is all I would argue about. I hold subscriptions to more than one online game. Three or four years ago that would have been unthinkable. I may play more than one single player game in a week. Other people may learn they like doing these things too, especially after they have been exposed to a larger world of choices than just one company's products.