So what's Mass Market Again? Conan hits 1M (shipped).

[Slayerik]

And take everything that I'm saying with the realization that I fully believe there is at least a 50% chance of AoC failing and dropping to fewer than 10k subs in the next 6 months.

At the risk of sounding like an AoC fanboi myself, I will say that to me there is almost no way that this game doesn't retain 10% of its subs after 6 months. With a million sold, thats about 100k subs...That is if 9 out of 10 players just quit. I could see half or even 2/3s leaving if they don't get their shit together, but 1/10 will forget to cancel the sub FFS :) Would be interesting to see numbers on a game like shadowbane...how many initial boxes sold...and how many after 6 months were subbed....

It is too pretty, too fun at the base level, and it is dare I say casual friendly....to a point.



And Nija, you punk, you always get into the betas.

[Lantyssa]

I hesitate to say anything, out of fear of being accused of being an AoC fanboi again, but I suspect that there may be bubbles of intense play as people initially pick up the game, followed by a ramping down time as players even out to more realistic for their lifestyle play times.   It's not necessarily an indication of  overall number of subscriptions.

I may be wrong, I'm not sitting server side on any of the major mmogs and I just don't have their tool sets to play with.  But it's just a sneaking suspicion I have.

There you go letting reality cloud your vision.

And take everything that I'm saying with the realization that I fully believe there is at least a 50% chance of AoC failing and dropping to fewer than 10k subs in the next 6 months.

Much better.

[Venkman]

I think AoC's initial bubble came from a dry spell of new MMO launches, the M-rating, and a slight departure on combat. It will shed players though, as it is a system hog, the grind does set in, and there's not enough stuff in there beyond watching your back while questing. There have been a few MMOs that shed more players than they attracted, whether for first-day nerfs (PS) or crazy grinds (CoH).

I am loving it at the moment. Not a day goes by I don't see some insane vista or hear some new track. I think I disparaged the aesthetic because I was sick of Tortage. The engine really starts to kick in around Conach's. Tarantia is cool and all but I've seen cities before The combat for me isn't wholly different as much as it's a different flavor. And I like the fact that other players could jump me with my back turned. So far I've been able to hold my own. And when I haven't, well, I had to turn in a few quests anyway 

[cevik]

At the risk of sounding like an AoC fanboi myself, I will say that to me there is almost no way that this game doesn't retain 10% of its subs after 6 months. With a million sold, thats about 100k subs...That is if 9 out of 10 players just quit. I could see half or even 2/3s leaving if they don't get their shit together, but 1/10 will forget to cancel the sub FFS :) Would be interesting to see numbers on a game like shadowbane...how many initial boxes sold...and how many after 6 months were subbed....

It is too pretty, too fun at the base level, and it is dare I say casual friendly....to a point.

Just for the record, I was engaging in hyperbole because if you don't engage in hyperbole in this thread, you are accused of being an AoC fanboi.  ;)

What I really mean is, I see there is the opportunity for AoC to die the death of Vanguard and Matrix Online and a host of other mmogs, and to be honest I'm not really willing to predict which way it will go.  My main complaint with the thread so far has honestly been the bizarre revisionism that is saying WoW launched without lag.

[Miasma]

I think a lot of the people on this board rolled on Earthen Ring together and that server was one of the ones that didn't have any problems.  The only thing I remember bothering me was that bug which kept you stuck in looting.

I like AoC and will not be cancelling but the game really does have a Vanguard/Matrix/Gods&Heroes imminent failure feel about it.  Their stock price got gutted due to the delay and if they can't keep enough players I can easily see the investors telling them to fold everything up.

I wonder if it would be added to SOE's all access pass...

[cevik]

There have been a few MMOs that shed more players than they attracted, whether for first-day nerfs (PS) or crazy grinds (CoH).

Of course, nearly all mmogs either have, or eventually will, shed more players than they attracted.  I'm saying I don't think it's ever really happened in the first 3 months of a mmog, i.e. some amount of growth occurs, almost by default, in the first few months.

AoC may well be the first time we have an initial high during the "free trial" period (which I don't understand how the first month of play can both cost us $50 *and* be free at the same time, but I digress), and sheds players starting at the end of the first 30 days, but it would be an industry first.  Thus I'm simply saying "don't get your hopes up for a collapse of epic proportions at 30 days plus one, because it doesn't typically work like that".

[cevik]

I think a lot of the people on this board rolled on Earthen Ring together and that server was one of the ones that didn't have any problems.  The only thing I remember bothering me was that bug which kept you stuck in looting.

And perhaps I had a worst time than most, because as a Warlock that bug that kept you stuck in looting was a game killer.  Every single mob, or more importantly for me, player you killed returned a soul shard (when you used your finishing move, soul burn, which ate a soul shard and then returned it to you if the person died).  Which means nearly every battle I engaged in would result in lag.  And the lag would occur on the first thing that died, so if I was fighting more than one mob or player it would be guaranteed death.

Now that wasn't even remotely close to the only issue I had with WoW at launch, but it was a doosy.

[Merusk]

There have been a few MMOs that shed more players than they attracted, whether for first-day nerfs (PS) or crazy grinds (CoH).

Of course, nearly all mmogs either have, or eventually will, shed more players than they attracted.  I'm saying I don't think it's ever really happened in the first 3 months of a mmog, i.e. some amount of growth occurs, almost by default, in the first few months.

No, that's what he's saying. That COH and PS both shed folks after the first month without attracting a greater # into the game and growing its base.   I thought CoH had SOME growth prior to "the dropoff" but it wasn't too long after launch that it did drop to about where it is now.

Just for the record, I was engaging in hyperbole because if you don't engage in hyperbole in this thread, you are accused of being an AoC fanboi.  ;)

And if you don't think AoC is ZOMG the best pvp evar and point out "hey, shit's broken" you're a carebear and a hater.  If not a WoW fanboi.  See, works both ways. Stop being a twat.

[cevik]

And if you don't think AoC is ZOMG the best pvp evar and point out "hey, shit's broken" you're a carebear and a hater.  If not a WoW fanboi.  See, works both ways. Stop being a twat.

Find the post where I've said anyone is a carebear, a hater, or a WoW fanboi and quote it.  For bonus points, find a post where I've said AoC is the best pvp game evar, or where I've even said it was good.

Just for posterity, I'll go ahead and quote you saying that I'm a fanboi:

Turn down the Fanboism, Cevik.

I'll stop being a twat right after you do.

No, that's what he's saying. That COH and PS both shed folks after the first month without attracting a greater # into the game and growing its base.   I thought CoH had SOME growth prior to "the dropoff" but it wasn't too long after launch that it did drop to about where it is now.

And my point was that the numbers I've seen show both of those titles increasing in players for the first 2-3 months, then starting a dropoff.  Which is what I keep saying above, I think that there is almost a given for an increase in numbers, no matter how poor the title, for the first few months.  So in 3 days when the "first 30 days ends zomg zomg zomg" and the numbers don't come collapsing down, I hope that neither side takes it as evidence that they are right.  It will take a little bit of time, not much, but at least a little bit.

EDIT:  Just for confirmation I made my way over to more dubious places on the internets, and as worthless as those dubious places are, they show both Planetside and City of Heros reporting an increase of subscribers for over 3 months before the first dropoff.  Again, it's dubious numbers so take it for what it's worth, but like I said above, those of you closely following the numbers probably shouldn't panic if Funcom announces growth in the next month.

[Venkman]

Bah, just say it. MMOGchart isn't the paragon of accuracy businesses want to make real development/budget/business decisions on. But it's good enough for no-accountability interwebs conversation, at least for the games for which there were press releases.

CoX went up for the first three months and then did nothing but fall off. You sorta get those first few months "for free" though as a publisher because that's generally just sell-through from the initial launch stock. Most people don't by non-recognizable MMOs on the very first day they launch. Even WoW took a month to hit 1mil+ I think.

PS looks to be total guesswork. They pissed off so many testers though with their launch-day XP nerf that I wouldn't be surprised if they never had as many subscribers as they had testers.

VG is probably the same. MxO too. AC2 definitely. I would bet the same for most MMOs that launched since WoW too. Initial rush to buy simply because a) players missed an open beta if there was one; or, b) because it's new at all. But once they spend a few weeks realizing just how not WoWpolishedcompleted it is, they trundle back to WoW.

Will any game have "fallen" as far as AoC could fall? We'll know in a few months

[cevik]

For what it's worth:

AoC is the still the best-selling US PC Game

My personal belief is that this will play into the whole "the world isn't going to end tomorrow, but it could end in 3 months or so" statements above.  Feel free to tell me why the US PC Games statistics are worthless or unreliable.

[cevik]

You sorta get those first few months "for free" though as a publisher because that's generally just sell-through from the initial launch stock.

Which is what I said above, if not word for word, then damn close to it.

Those who are predicting the sky will fall on day 30 are probably going to be wrong, you get some "free" time.  When the sky doesn't fall it isn't going to be an indication of success, again because you get some "free" time.

PS looks to be total guesswork. They pissed off so many testers though with their launch-day XP nerf that I wouldn't be surprised if they never had as many subscribers as they had testers.

VG is probably the same. MxO too. AC2 definitely.

And by every bit of data we have available, it appears AoC has well surpassed it's testers numbers with actual subscribers.

[Draegan]

For what it's worth:

AoC is the still the best-selling US PC Game

My personal belief is that this will play into the whole "the world isn't going to end tomorrow, but it could end in 3 months or so" statements above.  Feel free to tell me why the US PC Games statistics are worthless or unreliable.

I never got the Sims at all.

I just have to laugh at this,

6. The Sims 2 Kitchen & Bath Interior Design Stuff Expansion Pack

[IainC]

I never got the Sims at all.

I just have to laugh at this,

6. The Sims 2 Kitchen & Bath Interior Design Stuff Expansion Pack

The Sims and WoW have the same base for their success. The Sims tops the PC charts because EA managed to sell a PC game to people who weren't PC gamers. WoW has ten million+ subs because Blizzard managed to sell an MMO to people who weren't MMO gamers.

[Draegan]

I technically understand why people play the Sims.  I understand why people play it, and I understand why those people get addicted to it, technically.

I just can't personally get it.  I know this makes no sense but, meh.

[Venkman]

WoW is also successful because of the weight of its success. If they only sold that game in the U.S., they'd be lucky to be bragging about 1mil at this point. It's why doing a direct subscription comparison sometimes should be restricted to similar territories.

Which is what I said above, if not word for word, then damn close to it.

This thread's been all over the place. Sorry I missed that part of what you were saying I agree. I don't think AoC is only going to do well because the first month is free. Heck, they'll continue to do good on the backs of people who forgot to cancel before the first bill was posted alone  So between sell-through of stock and lazy credit card owners, any game could probably grow in the first two or three months.

[cevik]

So between sell-through of stock and lazy credit card owners, any game could probably grow in the first two or three months.

Right, which is why I said:

Serious question time:  Have we ever seen a mmog that didn't continue to grow for at least a short while after it's first 30 days?

I see what I believe are some serious misconceptions around here as people seem to be under the impression that a vast majority, or even a sizable minority, of the players picked up the game on the first day, installed it and created an account on that day.  I suspect nothing could be further from the truth on a mmog launch.

Those numbers trickle in over the course of the first month, thus there will not be a cataclysmic event at the end of the first 30 days where suddenly the servers are empty due to all the cancellations.  There will always been a slow burn of outgoing customers and a slow stream of incoming customers.  The real question is will the incoming stream match or beat the outgoing?  I think it's easy to beat the churn rate for the first few months, not everyone sits on message boards all day lying about how wonderful WoW's release is, and thus not everyone is clued into the meme of the week when it comes to the latest mmog.

I suspect there are at least a couple of months of growth for AoC no matter what the press is, the real question is what happens after that.

On the previous page.  I am honestly curious, has any game ever not increased for at least a couple of months?  Without counting the testers not converting on PS, Vangaurd and MXO (which obviously doesn't apply here) I think every game has grown for a small bit of time.

I just fear some people have their expectations set that the entire thing is going to massively collapse at 30 days plus one.  Which I think is a rather unrealistic and naive expectation.

[Mrbloodworth]

I technically understand why people play the Sims.  I understand why people play it, and I understand why those people get addicted to it, technically.

I just can't personally get it.  I know this makes no sense but, meh.

Building a fence around your sim so they cant leave the one square block after building a relationship with your hot neighbor that is now just outside of his reach and who is making out with a what might be and underage girl, all while your sim is hungry, sad, and standing in his own pee?

Whats not to like?

 

[cevik]

Building a fence around your sim so they cant leave the one square block after building a relationship with your hot neighbor that is now just outside of his reach and who is making out with a what might be and underage girl, all while your sim is hungry, sad, and standing in his own pee?

Whats not to like?

 

This and turning my female sims into lesbians is the sum total of all my sims experience.

[Lakov_Sanite]

    *  1. Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures
    * 2. Mass Effect
    * 3. Lego Indiana Jones: The Original Adventures
    * 4. The Sims 2 Double Deluxe
    * 5. World Of Warcraft: Battle Chest
    * 6. The Sims 2 Kitchen & Bath Interior Design Stuff Expansion Pack
    * 7. World Of Warcraft
    * 8. BioShock
    * 9. World Of Warcraft: Burning Crusade Expansion Pack
    * 10. The Sims 2 FreeTime Expansion Pack

All this graph tell me is two things.

One, unless your pc game is on the shelf at walmart it ain't selling shit.

Two, wow is fucking ridiculous...three different version of their game in the top ten still? but again it's a marketing thing. Boxes on shelves where most people can see them i think is the key here. 



I don't think you can gauge aoc though from box sales, it's a game with punishing, punishing system reqs and like it or not it's getting bad word of mouth.

[Threash]

    *  1. Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures
    * 2. Mass Effect
    * 3. Lego Indiana Jones: The Original Adventures
    * 4. The Sims 2 Double Deluxe
    * 5. World Of Warcraft: Battle Chest
    * 6. The Sims 2 Kitchen & Bath Interior Design Stuff Expansion Pack
    * 7. World Of Warcraft
    * 8. BioShock
    * 9. World Of Warcraft: Burning Crusade Expansion Pack
    * 10. The Sims 2 FreeTime Expansion Pack

All this graph tell me is two things.

One, unless your pc game is on the shelf at walmart it ain't selling shit.

Two, wow is fucking ridiculous...three different version of their game in the top ten still? but again it's a marketing thing. Boxes on shelves where most people can see them i think is the key here. 



I don't think you can gauge aoc though from box sales, it's a game with punishing, punishing system reqs and like it or not it's getting bad word of mouth.

I thought wal mart didnt sell mature games.

[Ratman_tf]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wymadClIHuo&feature=related

[MahrinSkel]

Even AO and WW2O (the last games that sold well but only retained a minority of the players) took about 6 months to really implode.  If the game is good enough to drive sell-through, it will take a while for other problems to bring it down.

--Dave

[IainC]

Serious question time:  Have we ever seen a mmog that didn't continue to grow for at least a short while after it's first 30 days?

Fury?

[cevik]

Serious question time:  Have we ever seen a mmog that didn't continue to grow for at least a short while after it's first 30 days?

Fury?

You may have me there, did we ever get any data from Fury ever?

[Venkman]

I am honestly curious, has any game ever not increased for at least a couple of months? 

There have been a few MMOs that shed more players than they attracted, whether for first-day nerfs (PS) or crazy grinds (CoH).

(just kidding  )

I understand why you discount MxO and VG; however, if there was any way to substantiate the numbers, I have the feeling those would be the examples. Given the beta testers that didn't convert to a purchase, there's probably also the pre-order folks who couldn't cancel and who didn't convert to the first month billing period.

But that's really just guessing. The only game that appears to have actually fallen off is AC2, but the source is suspect.

[Abelian75]

It would truly be an amazing feat of mathematics for a game to suck so bad that it somehow lost more players than it attracted.

[MahrinSkel]

I am honestly curious, has any game ever not increased for at least a couple of months? 

There have been a few MMOs that shed more players than they attracted, whether for first-day nerfs (PS) or crazy grinds (CoH).

(just kidding  )

I understand why you discount MxO and VG; however, if there was any way to substantiate the numbers, I have the feeling those would be the examples. Given the beta testers that didn't convert to a purchase, there's probably also the pre-order folks who couldn't cancel and who didn't convert to the first month billing period.

But that's really just guessing. The only game that appears to have actually fallen off is AC2, but the source is suspect.

I think beta to pre-order conversions, especially if there's a special deal, can give you a good idea.  DAoC, two thirds of the beta accounts signed up for the special 6 month rate before launch day.  Since some amount probably kept on after launch but didn't want to sign up for 6 months, that tracks well with the 75% conversion we saw.  On the other hand, AC2's nearly 1M beta players did not convert to boxes sold (I don't know if they had an offer going that would have let them see that coming).  So if your beta players don't want to convert, your initial sales probably won't either.

There's probably a way you could poll your beta players for that, and you can probably see a lot of it from the rate at which beta accounts churn (DAoC, for example, had more than 4/5th's of beta accounts in active use in the last month).  If accounts are staying active and you're not having to churn huge numbers through to keep a testing base like AC2, you're probably in good shape.

--Dave

[cevik]

It would truly be an amazing feat of mathematics for a game to suck so bad that it somehow lost more players than it attracted.

We were clearly talking about losing more players than it attracted in any finite measurement of time, i.e. in any given week gaining X new players and losing Y current subscribers.  If X is less than Y your mmog is currently shrinking.

If it never happens then your mmog will continue to grow for forever and no mmog will ever die.

Though I suspect you were being pedantic just to be a jerk, in which case, carry on. ;)

EDIT:  And of course Darniaq is talking about that finite amount of time being the first month, so that at the end of the first month you've already declined beyond the high that you set in the first month.

EDIT2:  And Darniaq, I still disagree, CoH and PS both grew for several months at least according to available data.

[Lakov_Sanite]

i bought my copy of aoc at walmart.

[Abelian75]

We were clearly talking about losing more players than it attracted in any finite measurement of time, i.e. in any given week gaining X new players and losing Y current subscribers.  If X is less than Y your mmog is currently shrinking.

If it never happens then your mmog will continue to grow for forever and no mmog will ever die.

Though I suspect you were being pedantic just to be a jerk, in which case, carry on. ;)

Pretty much, yeah.  I was just kiddin'.  I was mostly just amused by my own failure to immediately recognize it as an obviously true statement, which I then decided to share with the internets in sarcasm form.

[Trippy]

CoX went up for the first three months and then did nothing but fall off.

Nope. CoX hit it's peak in terms of subscribers in December 2005, more than a year and a half after the launch of the game. It got a big jump from the release of CoV on Halloween 2005 and it continued to stay above it's June 2004 numbers through most of 2006.



Edit: numbers are from NCsoft's own earning reports

[Venkman]

EDIT2:  And Darniaq, I still disagree, CoH and PS both grew for several months at least according to available data.

I know, I was being snarky. Since it took me a page to fully understand the question you originally asked, I thought it'd be funny to give you the exact same response I gave on the prior page that started us down this path.

But having to describe it removes what little humor there was 

[MahrinSkel]

A lot of other factors from the rest of the market are going to feed into that, as well.  UO kept growing for years, simply because there was no practical alternative, so did EQ.  Much of WoW's sustained success in the western markets may simply have been that there was no really competitive alternative released until AoC.

--Dave

[Trippy]

EQ II