New and Improved Poker thread

[Khaldun]

Yeah. I think it's only when you feel like, probably incorrectly, that you're getting hit again and again and again for a long streak that way that it's hard to shake it off.

[Abagadro]

AAA filled up when the board paired queens, and of course villain had QQ. WTF.

Bummer.

In the B&M I play at that would have been worth several thousand dollars.

[WayAbvPar]

Yep. If that happens in most cardrooms, it is a BBJ and I am loving life. First thing I thought  (after "FUCK", and "Naturally").

[Khaldun]

Here's a basic thing I'm trying to figure out. Classic situation: you either raised or called a modest raise before the flop with low-medium pockets. You hit your trips on the flop. There are two suited cards, though, and you don't have either of them. There's no danger of a straight. Maybe one of the suited cards is paint.

So the thing that concerns you really is someone betting to the flush, and you're in an environment (low-stakes ring game, arly rounds of small-stakes sit-and-go) where you just know there are a lot of people who cannot be pushed off a flush draw no matter what you do. So what do you do when you hit that set, if you're betting first? All-in or X% of the flop raise? You know  you're getting called no matter what, trips against the chance of the other person hitting their flush.

[IainC]

Here's a basic thing I'm trying to figure out. Classic situation: you either raised or called a modest raise before the flop with low-medium pockets. You hit your trips on the flop. There are two suited cards, though, and you don't have either of them. There's no danger of a straight. Maybe one of the suited cards is paint.

So the thing that concerns you really is someone betting to the flush, and you're in an environment (low-stakes ring game, arly rounds of small-stakes sit-and-go) where you just know there are a lot of people who cannot be pushed off a flush draw no matter what you do. So what do you do when you hit that set, if you're betting first? All-in or X% of the flop raise? You know  you're getting called no matter what, trips against the chance of the other person hitting their flush.

The way I see it is this:

You already have a hand. If someone's pulling for a flush then they have approximately a 1/3 chance of hitting it if they have 4 suited cards on the flop. Of course there may be other outs for them as well depending on the situation but the odds are with you and if they insist on playing it to the hilt everytime they will get stung more often than not. I would therefore make a strong bet to scare off the waverers and suck in the guys you know will chase the flush draw.

You don't want everyone to call because the last thing you want is for someone to hit a weird runner-runner straight or to outdraw you because he was calling with King-rag or whatever.

[Khaldun]

This is especially tough for me in a tournament context, with the risk-of-ruin involved especially in the early rounds. A lot of flush hunters in the early going are just going to go all-in, that's what they do.

[trias_e]

Trips are such a big favorite.  It's even better if multiple people have flush draws.  Just get it in.  The more people you can get all in on the flop the more money you make in the long run.  If they will call anything, just shove and smile.

Let me pokerstove a random board for you.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  22,140  games     0.016 secs     1,383,750  games/sec

Board: 8h 7d 3d
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    62.276%     62.28%    00.00%             13788            0.00   { 88 }
Hand 1:    16.585%     15.73%    00.85%              3483          189.00   { T9o }
Hand 2:    00.854%     00.00%    00.85%                 0          189.00   { KdTd }
Hand 3:    20.285%     20.28%    00.00%              4491            0.00   { Ad5d }

If you get everyone all in here, assuming they all have 100BB, you win 300BB 62% of the time, which comes out to an average of about 190 BB.


Against 1 draw.

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    72.626%     72.63%    00.00%              2157            0.00   { 88 }
Hand 1:    27.374%     27.37%    00.00%               813            0.00   { Ad5d }

72% win rate, 100BB won, comes out to an average of 72BB.


Another  scenario:


Board: 8h 7d 3d
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    51.421%     51.42%    00.00%              4179            0.00   { 88 }
Hand 1:    44.038%     44.04%    00.00%              3579            0.00   { Td9d }
Hand 2:    04.540%     04.54%    00.00%               369            0.00   { 33 }

Even against the best draw ever (open ended straight flush draw), you're still a favorite.  And then don't forget the possibility of getting dead money in against a twopair or lower set.  Of course, this is sort of balances out when you have to put your money in with the lower set or two pair, but it just makes the point that sets are godly and huge favorites over basically everyone and eveything.  The full house redraw if they hit on the turn is a big part of this.

In fact, if you were playing in the first scenario, but made it to the turn with 100BB instead of the flop, and the turn were the Jd, you'd be pot comitted to call if all three players went all in assuming there was some money in the pot to begin with.

[Khaldun]

So over the long haul, I'm going to hold up enough that I should always call an all-in that I think is a flush hunter if I've made a set off of pockets, even if it's early in the tournament? That's what I've been doing so far. It's just kind of frustrating when it doesn't hold up, obviously, because that's the end of the tournament. But if I give that up, I figure I should be giving up AA too since every once in a while, somebody's going to hit something against it if you're both all-in before the flop.

[Abagadro]

Having a risk of ruin early in a tourney is frustrating, but when you have that kind of EV you can't fold.  What you want to avoid is coin-flips all-in early. That's why you need to let go even AKs or QQ against an all-in real early unless you are stack committed already. A flopped set is such a monster unless it is a mono-chrome board you can't be afraid to go to the felt. Otherwise you are just going to play way too tight until the later stages and by that time you will be too short to do anything.

[Khaldun]

Yeah. I usually give up AK against a preflop all-in from a stack that covers me early in a tourney unless it's one of those jokers who all-ins everything.

[Margalis]

In a lot of online tournaments players will push on a lot of stuff to either double up quick or bust out and move to the next one. It can be very frustrating as if you play smart and conservative you'll soon be facing people with 4x or more your stack. If you think you have the best hand you have to risk it because a lot of people will push on Aces or better.

[Khaldun]

I try to get a quick profile on people early in a low buy-in tournament. If they're pushing on everything, and I have anything decent (99 or better pockets, A9 or higher, K10 or higher) I'll probably call the push. After all, I can move on too. If it's someone I've profiled as conservative after three or four hands, I'll be a lot pickier. Sometimes it's hard to tell the difference, of course. I find that the big opportunity actually comes when an early pusher has hit three or four lucky hands--a lot of them don't know how to make the transition to protecting that stack, and you can double up in succession a couple of times if they keep pushing on Ace-rag, K-rag, etc.

[trias_e]

So over the long haul, I'm going to hold up enough that I should always call an all-in that I think is a flush hunter if I've made a set off of pockets, even if it's early in the tournament? That's what I've been doing so far. It's just kind of frustrating when it doesn't hold up, obviously, because that's the end of the tournament. But if I give that up, I figure I should be giving up AA too since every once in a while, somebody's going to hit something against it if you're both all-in before the flop.

Yeah, the only way I'm ever folding a set in a situation like that is if the table I'm at is so horrible I can flat-out rob them of all their chips, without getting into any danger whatsoever.  I've never actually been in a situation where I felt I was better off folding there.  It would have to be pretty extreme.  Related to this, your willingness to take coinflips and marginal situations in tournaments should be based on the quality of the field.  If you were at a very tough tourney and felt you were outclassed, you should be happy to get it in as a coinflop.  If the players are morons, you will need 60% equity or more, because you can take their chips over time in easier ways.

Never give up on good hands early because of risk of ruin unless you totally outclass the competition.  Worrying about risk of ruin doesn't really make sense in tournaments unless you are sure better situations than the one you are currently in will come up in the future.

[Abagadro]

Worrying about risk of ruin doesn't really make sense in tournaments unless you are sure better situations than the one you are currently in will come up in the future.

I disagree with this a bit. ROR in tournaments is their singular distinction in poker and the entire basis behind the Gap Concept.  It should actually inform all of your plays regardless of the level of competition. You obviously can't let it scare you to death, but it is crucial to your defensive decisions and should be used just as much as an offensive weapon as anything (it is what generates a large portion of fold equity).

[UD_Delt]

I'm actually of the opposite mindset when I play in tournies. I would prefer to take my coin flips early on rather than later when I've already committed 2 or more hours and the blinds force you into it. I feel much better about busting out within 10-20 minutes of a tourney start than playing for 2-3 hours and not even making the money after either a couple beats or a blind-forced coin flip.

Also, if you're playing the lower buy-in tourneys (less than $10 buy-ins) you're QQ or AK is often going to be a huge favorite anyway. I would never lay either of those hands down preflop and will always get it all-in pre if I have the option.

Having an above average stack as the blinds start getting bigger is HUGE advantage in large tournies. Once the blinds are greater than about 30-40% of the starting stacks so many players start shoving weak holdings and you want to be in position to be able to call lots of smaller stacks with your premiums without risking ruin at that stage if you run into a couple 60/40 or worse losses in a row.

Then again I don't play a lot of tournies so my strategy may be flawed but the couple dozen I have played it feels like I've done fairly well. My best results to date are a 3rd place in 300-400 person rebuy tourney and I have hit top 20ish in a lot of those 1500+ tournies. Still haven't final tabled a huge field one though.

[trias_e]

I disagree with this a bit. ROR in tournaments is their singular distinction in poker and the entire basis behind the Gap Concept.  It should actually inform all of your plays regardless of the level of competition. You obviously can't let it scare you to death, but it is crucial to your defensive decisions and should be used just as much as an offensive weapon as anything (it is what generates a large portion of fold equity).

Really?  Perhaps I have a bad idea of what exactly risk of ruin is, or how it's applied in tournaments.  Certainly possible, the only poker literature I've read about tournaments was Harrington on Hold'em quite a while ago.  I sort of just play out of my ass these days with a decent idea of when to steal, and basing my hands around pot commitment.

I always thought being able to steal the blinds is the basis behind the gap concept.  Even if you are shortstacked or 3/4betting, you can shove all in with worse hands than you can call an all-in with simply because the other player has a chance to fold.  This is why being the first person to raise is such a big deal when stacks are small:  You take away the option for other people, and since you are pot commited, they can't 3-bet you liberally and are forced to play a better range than your range.

The only time I think about ROR in tournaments is when I am very short stacked and trying to get into the money, or very short stacked and trying to move up a place.  Usually however the other small stacks, or the middlish stacks are playing too tight in these stages, so I still feel it's better to attack them than try to fold and get into the money.  Just avoid flipping with big stacks (although flipping isn't even that bad considering the blinds and antes are a big percentage of your chips)

[trias_e]

I would prefer to take my coin flips early on rather than later when I've already committed 2 or more hours and the blinds force you into it. I feel much better about busting out within 10-20 minutes of a tourney start than playing for 2-3 hours and not even making the money after either a couple beats or a blind-forced coin flip.

There's nothing wrong with this idea from both a time investment standpoint and an overall strategic standpoint as long as by flip you mean getting in on average at least slightly ahead.  Again, the only time I'd disagree is when the field is so bad it will be easy to double up without having to risk much.

[Abagadro]

I always thought being able to steal the blinds is the basis behind the gap concept.  Even if you are shortstacked or 3/4betting, you can shove all in with worse hands than you can call an all-in with simply because the other player has a chance to fold.  This is why being the first person to raise is such a big deal when stacks are small:  You take away the option for other people, and since you are pot commited, they can't 3-bet you liberally and are forced to play a better range than your range.

The reason ROR is important is because people will be far more willing to call those bets if they can go into their pocket and try to get it back a few hands later. In tournament poker, there is no chance to do that so ROR motivates people to fold more than in cash games when faced with an aggressive raise.  The Gap Concept is explained better in Sklansky's Tournament Poker for Advanced Players as I think Harrington sort of takes it as a given.

[trias_e]

Oh, that's very true.  However, I actually always saw that as a flaw that people have...they are too scared to bust out of tournaments when in reality they are ignoring clear pot odds based decisions.  I may be misunderstanding some basic mathematical concepts relating to ROR/tournament play though.  I do realize that the less chips you have, the more those chips are worth relatively speaking.  But I never thought that was a main consideration.

Of course, online these days, people actually don't fold enough (only preflop), so things are sort of different.

[Abagadro]

Heh. I'm at the Bellagio right now and TJ Cloutier is at the craps table with his nose wide open which I take it isn't all that unusual.

[Abagadro]

I'm now in the Venetian poker room and Ray Romano is at the next table to me playing in a tourny.  It's a poker celebrity weekend!

[WayAbvPar]

Heh. I'm at the Bellagio right now and TJ Cloutier is at the craps table with his nose wide open which I take it isn't all that unusual.

Yeah, that is like seeing a fish in water.

[stu]

A wild hand I found tonight.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PO3Fg2PEYWI&feature=related

[Amarr HM]

That exact scenario you are talking about above happened me last year in a tournament at the first table, a very good textbook player at the table bet 4x I called and hit trip nines on the flop, he pushed me all in so obviously I called and he was on a flush draw with AJ of spades turn gave him the flush, river gave me a boat. It ended up being a pivotal moment as I went on to win the tournament of 100 people cashing out 600 euro.

fake edit : yay I found a poker thread

[WayAbvPar]

Live feed of arguments before the WA State Supreme Court about 2 gambling cases- one involving betcha.com, and the other the Lee Rousso Case involving the constitutionality of the state's ban on online poker (Class C felony- fucking CLOWNSHOES). Betcha.com doesn't seem to have a case in my very uneducated opinion, but the Rousso case might fare a bit better. I sure hope it does.

Link no longer live. Very interesting to listen to. To my biased ears, at least some of the justices were openly questioning the validity of the ban, and the state's case was pretty uncompelling. However- it did get through 2 levels of courts already, so my optimism is definitely curtailed.

[Abagadro]

Necro!

Good god. I have been watching the 3-handed final table of the WSOP main event for 8 hours. This is an epic grind going on here.  I don't think I can make it much longer as its 3:30 in the morning.

[WayAbvPar]

I had to give up just after midnight both days....was exhausted. I am glad I didn't wait it out- 3:00 AM would have made me even crankier than I am already. Were there any big swings, or did Merson just grind them down? Last I saw he lost that huge pot with KK and then ground up to barely take the chip lead again.

I will give those kids props- all of them were damned good players. A couple of donkeys at the final table proper, but the last 5 for sure were all top players. Hopefully after the election we can get some goddamned federal legislation passed so daddy can supplement his income again.

[Abagadro]

He played pretty conservatively while the two others battled back and forth. The youngster who was the short stack the entire time doubled up off of Sylvia and was the CHIP LEADER all of a sudden after about 11 hours.  He then doubled Sylvia back and then faded pretty fast. Heads-up was pretty short and the final hand was pretty weird.