MLB 2011

[HaemishM]

The Cards totally screwed themselves by giving Pujols no-trade rights. They need to trade him to bolster their waifish batting order. Pujols, Holliday & Rasmus aren't enough to assist good pitching when the other six slots have limp wrists.

Haemish, let's get the fantasy league going!

League is set.

The Cards have fucked themselves by not signing Pujols. I get that they didn't want to give him a 10-year contract, but you cannot take the chance on that fucker going free agent next year.

EDIT: As for Pujols home runs dropping, who was hitting behind him in the years when he was hitting 40 and the years after? He surely hasn't had a good #4/#5 combo since Jim Edmonds got old.

[Paelos]

EDIT: As for Pujols home runs dropping, who was hitting behind him in the years when he was hitting 40 and the years after? He surely hasn't had a good #4/#5 combo since Jim Edmonds got old.

If you're suggesting he wasn't getting protected and they were pitching around him in 07-08, the numbers don't bear that out. His BB average per game was higher in 06 when he hit HRs than when he hit 32 in 07. He also hit 17 HRs less in 15 more games played, but his batting average was only 4 points different. The simple fact remains that from 06 to 07, he was hitting the ball just as much, walking less, playing more games, and the ball wasn't going out the yard.

Chalk it up to bad years if you want. Hammering Hank dropped from 44 HRs to 24 one year, but he was hurt and played less games.

[Ingmar]

The delta between the fewest HR and most HR in full seasons in his career is 17. A-Rod's for example is 34, so is Todd Helton (even if we throw out his recent old man years). Chipper Jones is 24ish, Jim Thome is over 20, etc.

Point being that for most players that are operating in the 40 HR zone, some year to year variance is perfectly normal and not really evidence of anything in particular. From the limited amount of digging I did Pujols is probably *more* consistent than most/all of these guys.

[Paelos]

The delta between the fewest HR and most HR in full seasons in his career is 17. A-Rod's for example is 34, so is Todd Helton (even if we throw out his recent old man years). Chipper Jones is 24ish, Jim Thome is over 20, etc.

Point being that for most players that are operating in the 40 HR zone, some year to year variance is perfectly normal and not really evidence of anything in particular. From the limited amount of digging I did Pujols is probably *more* consistent than most/all of these guys.

I agree he's consistent, which makes the drop all the more shocking. Looks the the HRs, tossing out the first 2 seasons: 43, 46, 41, 49, 32, 37, 47, 42.

Just looking at those numbers, not knowing anything else about them, and ask yourself, which one of these things doesn't belong?

[ghost]

The Yankees are the fattest team to ever play the game of baseball.  

CC Sabathia noted this week that after dropping 25 pounds, he's finally pitching at his official listed weight of 290. He's spent the past few years pitching above 310 despite what the media guide says.

Going by the listed weights, the Yankees have 18 players in camp listed at 225 pounds or more, just under one-third of the total group in camp. Five players are listed at 250 pounds or more. On the pitching staff, new arrivals Freddy Garcia (250) and Bartolo Colon (245) join the mammoth Mr. Sabathia (290) and the voluminous Phil Hughes (240).

I'm not sure what this says about baseball.  

[HaemishM]

You're right, Paelos, the stats don't bear out anything about the guys hitting around him in those years. But, guys who drop off because they are off the juice usually drop pretty fast and stay dropped. They don't go 2 down years then pick the homers back up to the 40+ range again. Unless he found new, undetectable juice, I tend to think he's not a juicer so much as he is a fantastic hitter. Look at the consistency of his average.

[Paelos]

You're right, Paelos, the stats don't bear out anything about the guys hitting around him in those years. But, guys who drop off because they are off the juice usually drop pretty fast and stay dropped. They don't go 2 down years then pick the homers back up to the 40+ range again. Unless he found new, undetectable juice, I tend to think he's not a juicer so much as he is a fantastic hitter. Look at the consistency of his average.

Here's my crazy theory that's probably only used by myself. He was on the juice, shit hits the fan in 06, and he gets off it. After 2008, maybe late in the season even, when it's clear baseball won't test for HGH, he starts HGH. I still think a lot of players use it. Why wouldn't you?

[Ingmar]

The problem with that theory is AFAIK the effects of HGH don't include an increase in actual muscle strength - HGH is mostly about reducing injury. I am nothing at all like an expert on it though, so grain of salt etc.

[ghost]

Most baseball players don't take roids to build mass either.  It's another method of augmenting recovery.

[stu]

Wainwright is probably out for the season. The Cardinals are having a rough pre-season.

[Paelos]

Wainwright is probably out for the season. The Cardinals are having a rough pre-season.

That really really sucks. Expect Cubs fans to be total cocks about it.

[Ingmar]

Prospectus 2011 is here. 

[HaemishM]

Wainwright is probably out for the season. The Cardinals are having a rough pre-season.

That really really sucks. Expect Cubs fans to be total cocks about it.

You have Pujols. Suck it up. 

[Paelos]

Hey I'm a Braves fan. 

I just think people getting injured before the season starts is awful.

[HaemishM]

Oh yeah, it sucks monkeys for Cards fans. Other than maybe Terrell Owens or Barry Bonds, there's very few guys I want to see injured ever.

[Ingmar]

Confirmed that he's going to have Tommy John surgery. I don't think it utterly rules out the Cardinals, but the Central is the toughest division in the NL and the Reds and Brewers have to be considered strong favorites over the Cardinals now. Cubs have some potential too so LaRussa will have to really get a lot of mileage out of the guys he has left.

[HaemishM]

I do not think the Brewers are going to be as good as everyone thinks. Their pitching isn't THAT impressive, they've had issues with defense for years and oh, yeah, their big time slugger is pissed off and wants to leave so they are trying to trade him. They blew their chance a few years ago. Their farm system is still ok, but they are probably another year away from a really good cycle, IMO. Houston and Pittsburgh are going to suck it this year, the Cubs are an absolute coin toss. The Reds are probably going to suffer the Dusty Baker hangover syndrome - i.e. their great young arms are about to get stretched like rubber bands with the dry rot and their offense won't cover the deficiency. I really don't see anyone beating the Cards in that division this year, but I've been wrong before.

[stu]

The Reds seem to have the most balanced offense in the NL, including solid backups across the board. They have a dependable rotation and the premier set-up man in the league. With all their youth, I don't really see them going anywhere but up for the next couple years. lulz at Renteria, who just seems to follow his arch rival, Cabrera, around the league.

The Cards decided to view their second place finish as a fluke and rest on their laurels, making no improvements and keeping their pockets tight for a potential Pujols deal. Even if Berkman bounces back, there are holes in their line-up that will bore your hair grey. Just really pedestrian in some spots. An elite pitcher on a good team generally gives something like a +5 spread in the wins column, so I'd say 2nd place in the NL will be a toss-up this year as the Cards descend and others improve.

The East is where it's at in the NL right now.

[Paelos]

I think the Phillies are a lock to win the East with Atlanta as a WC.
I think the central is a clusterfuck right now and nobody can predict how it shakes out.
I think the West is San Diego's to lose.

[HaemishM]

Don't you mean San Francisco's to lose? I kept trying to picture someone besides the Giants winning the West and with that pitching, I couldn't see anyone else taking the lead.

The Phillies are an absolute lock for the East. The Mets are terrible, the Nats are 2-3 years away from real contention, Atlanta has offensive holes Chipper can't fix even when 100% and the Marlins have a front office that enjoys stunning mediocrity.

The Central really is the only division where I think there's a possibility of surprise but it'll probably be the kind of surprise like "Wow, these fuckers are worse than I thought."

[stu]

I like San Diego's bullpen, but I don't see their anemic order taking out the other two big dogs in the division. It'll go down to the wire between San Fransisco & the Rockies. Their subtle move for ultra-utility man Ty Wiggington could give Colorado the edge they need to round out their line-up.

Like Haemish says, the Giants are pretty awesome. Their pitching staff is elite and I love the homegrown aspect of it, even with the bust, Zito, gumming things up. Just imagine if he puts in a good season. I like their defense too. How will Tejada fare as Renteria's replacement?

[Ingmar]

San Diego lost Adrian Gonzalez and replaced him with Brad Hawpe. This takes an already pretty bad offense down into  territory. Combine that with the fact that they had to overachieve to even get to where they were and I think the Padres have very little chance to do anything.

NL West is basically going to be Giants vs. Rockies, I agree with that.

[Paelos]

Yall are gonna be like  when San Diego is up by 6 games at the All Star break.

[Teleku]

Is there any particular reason you have such faith in their team?

[stu]

Yeah, I don't see it. Tim Stauffer could be a major sleeper, but the biggest thing SD has going for them is their General Manager at this point.

[Paelos]

Is there any particular reason you have such faith in their team?

Two things. One, I love their team speed. I think that's a big key to their success this year by throwing other pitchers off their game when they get on base. Two, I love their manager. Bud Black has taken that team from 5th to 4th to 2nd divisionally in the last three years. I think they are poised to win this year.

[stu]

Prospectus 2011 is here. 

The reviews on amazon say the quality has dropped this year. Do you agree on this? I was thinking about picking it up now that it's about $13.

[Ingmar]

I haven't noticed any particular problems with it. I'm probably only at the undergrad level with regard to sabermetrics, though, so if there are deep hidden flaws in their methodology or whatever then it is going to be above my head. I also tend to attach more value to the text analysis than to the PECOTA projections which I have always considered more of a toy than a tool.

[Ingmar]

So Brandon Belt has started off hot. If he stays this hot through spring training (could easily not happen, probably won't happen) the Giants have some tricky personnel decisions to make, as they have a pretty big logjam around 1B/OF positions.

Sure things:

- Andres Torres as the starting CF

...and that's it. The thought at the start of spring training was going to be Ross and Burrell in the corners, Torres in center, and Huff at first, with the Giants carrying Aaron Rowand and Nate Schierholz as backup OFs and Travis Ishikawa as a 1B/OF backup and left handed pinch hitter. Mark DeRosa is probably in line for some OF at-bats too but will move around the diamond. If Belt makes the starting lineup, they're going to have to trade or cut someone, it *should* be Rowand but probably will be Ishikawa or Schierholz. Nate seems a little more likely to me since Ishikawa is a better hitter and they have other choices for Burrell's defensive replacement (Nate's main role last year.) Cutting either one deprives the team of a left-handed pinch hitting option though. They may end up delaying their decision til May/June like they did with Posey, of course, but they will have a harder time making the same excuses they did with Posey as Belt really needs no defensive polish at all.

Infield is a little crowded too with Mark DeRosa healthy but I kind of expect that to just result in Fontenot getting cut. (Maybe I should say hope instead of expect, Fontenot is just not a very useful player.)

[ghost]

Baseball season is back.  Pick your team! 

[Paelos]

Baseball season is back.  Pick your team! 

That's hilarious. Also it actually lead me to the team I root for! Bonus!

[ghost]

Are you going to punch someone in the neck? 

[HaemishM]

That is fucking awesome. 

[WayAbvPar]

Baseball season is back.  Pick your team! 

God that sooooo encapsulates the majority of Mariner fans to a T. I get angry every time I think about all the poseur douchebags who go to games at Safeco but don't understand a goddamned thing about baseball. Soccer moms and socialites. God forbid you have more than 2 beers to try to entertain yourself, you drunken heathen. Don't yell at the players, or boo, or bring a negative sign- they are trying as hard as they can!

FUCK YOU.


Wow, I feel oddly better now.

[ghost]

Maybe you should have some Chowda instead.