Season 4 predictions

[Comstar]

Battletech

Lamaros Vs Carnifex27 - After playing both, I'd put my money on Carnifex - he was able to protect his skinks better than Lamaros could protect his gutter runners. Be a close match though, so 3-2. Got that wrong - Skaven 2 over Lizard 1
Gruntle Vs Ginaz -  I'm going for a 1-1 draw, but several casualties. I guessed correctly
Ice Cream Vs Hlem - Ice Cream 4-0 I'm afraid. I hope Hlem gets some kills. Zombies are slow it sees. 2-0
Comstar Vs Avaia - His Frenzy vs my Sidestep. A close game, 2-1 to the Blodging Amazons. DENIED : 2-1 Avaia over me.

[eldaec]

Stormbringer squeaky bum time once again.


                        Pts   TDD    To Play
Ex-Presidents   10    +3      Mutiny, Paper Dolls
Beetles               8    +2      Hackers, Silver Horde
Silver Horde       7    +3      Paper Dolls, Beetles           
Hackers             6     -1      Beetles, Wrestlers
The Mutiny        6     -3       Ex-Presidents, Harbringers

The cheap thing to do is assume Paper Dolls games are 2-0 losses, and Wrestler/Harbringer games are 2-0 wins...

                        Pts   TDD    To Play
Ex-Presidents   10    +1      Mutiny
Hackers             9     +1      Beetles
The Mutiny        9     -1       Ex-Presidents           
Beetles               8    +2      Hackers, Silver Horde
Silver Horde       7    +1      Beetles           

So three key matches here.

Mutiny vs Ex-Presidents - Winner qualifies. Mutiny will almost certainly need the win, but Ex-Presidents will likely qualify from a tie, and may get into a TD diff showdown even with a loss. My bet would be on the Ex-Presidents to win, given the insane development they've had, also Norse is a good matchup for them.

Hackers vs Beetles - Winner qualifies. Hackers probably out if they don't win, Beetles get a second shot on day 7 even if they lose, which I think they'll need as Dark Elf is not a good match for Khemri, the undead side will struggle to maintain enough contact with the elves. A tie probably takes Hackers into TD diff lottery, Beetles would still need something from their final match.

Beetles vs Silver Horde - Beetles will qualify if they win this match (assuming they haven't already). Silver Horde will likely be playing the TD difference game if they win. A tie is probably no use to anyone, unless Beetles tie the Hackers match beforehand.



All in all Ex-Presidents, Hackers, and Beetles favourites to reach the second round alongside the Dolls (who are already qualified btw, and will claim the title with one more win).

In true Stormbringer style, I'm now expecting the Dolls, Wrestlers, and Harbringers to make a fool of me by turning this entirely upside down. The Wrestlers in particular play Harbringers then Hackers, two wins mean 10 points, so they could also be in contention on day 7.

[Sjofn]

Yeah, I'm not optimistic about my match against the Ex-Presidents, I suspect most of my team is going to end up being a bloody smear across the pitch. Tying Reborne was probably the end of my playoff dreams, really. Not that I really had any, I'm pretty pleased I was ever in contention at all. 

[Der Helm]

Ice Cream Vs Hlem - very difficult to see anything other than a home win this week. Can Hlem keep the score respectable?  3-0 Icecream

[AndyDavo]

Ice Cream Vs Hlem - very difficult to see anything other than a home win this week. Can Hlem keep the score respectable?  3-0 Icecream

Your welcome to prove me wrong, Icecream is a known quantity to me, a solid coach who is on a 100% record, your new and i don't know you. best of luck!

[Der Helm]

Ice Cream Vs Hlem - very difficult to see anything other than a home win this week. Can Hlem keep the score respectable?  3-0 Icecream

Your welcome to prove me wrong, Icecream is a known quantity to me, a solid coach who is on a 100% record, your new and i don't know you. best of luck!

Oh, I did not disagree with your prediction. 

[Ruvaldt]

Yeah, I'm not optimistic about my match against the Ex-Presidents, I suspect most of my team is going to end up being a bloody smear across the pitch.

Never underestimate my ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  In both seasons I've lost games that I should have tied or won by doing something insanely stupid that I had to take a brisk walk and a few beers to get over.

That said: Millard Fillmore and Franklin Pierce are going to make orphans of your children.  You should stock up on apothecaries because the US Presidents don't care for your eurotrash socialist Scandinavians one bit.  America, fuck yeah.   

[Strazos]

Twilight 2000 is also looking to be very close this season:

                              Pts      TD      To Play
Hazardous Hippies    13      +8     SnooSnoo, Burninluv
HH Burninluv           10      +6      Itchers, Hippies
Minizilla's                 9       +2      Diplomats, Elvers
Diplomatic Immunity 8       +3      Minizilla's, SnooSnoo
Team SnooSnoo       (7)       0      (Elvers), Hippies, Diplomats
Chemical Elvers    (5)     +1      (SnooSnoo), Bashtards, Minizilla's
Ironwood's Itchers    1
Bashtards                 0

Nothing is completely sealed up yet in this, and we still have SnooSnoo/Elvers yet to play this week. SnooSnoo probably has the most difficult remaining schedule of the playoff contenders. The Hippies will probably advance, even if they lose their 2 remaining games. HHB will probably end with 13 or 14 points, which should be enough to advance. The Minizilla's have a very tough match next week ( ), and then something of a toss-up against the Elvers - I'm guessing they win the finale, ending with 12 points, which may not cut it. Now, due in part to their current TD advantage over most of the other teams in the division, Diplomatic Immunity has a higher degree of control over their final placement - they're in if they win-out the rest of the season. They may be able to afford a tie, but things will get dicey. Next there is Team SnooSnoo, who also have some control over their destinies - Again, if they win, they're in. However, their remaining games are against 2 veteran teams and a surprising Elf squad. And finally there are the Chemical Elvers, who are going to have either an outside shot at the playoffs, or a strong chance to influence who gets in. With a win over SnooSnoo, they can catapult into contention if they beat SnooSnoo by at least 3 TDs - winning by 2 will pull them into a TD differential tie with Diplomatic Immunity, and these teams tied earlier this season, so I'm not sure who wins the tiebreaks. With a loss, the Elf's chances become very bleak, but with a tie, things get much closer.

In the end, there should be 6 teams in the hunt up until the final day of the season, and at this time it's impossible to know for sure who will make the cut. What I can say for sure is...whichever teams don't make the top tournament will be creating a lot of havoc in the consolation bracket.

[Sjofn]

That said: Millard Fillmore and Franklin Pierce are going to make orphans of your children.  You should stock up on apothecaries because the US Presidents don't care for your eurotrash socialist Scandinavians one bit.  America, fuck yeah.   

I will take comfort in the fact any claw you have is mostly useless against me! Nyah!

<sob>

[Celer]

If the Elvers can pull off the upset this week, they will claim official "dark horse" status in the division.  A victory would make them heavy favorites against the Bashtards, and no doubt they would be aiming not just for victory but for multiple-TD victory.  That would give them a lot of momentum for the must-win season finale against the Minizillas.  However, even winning out may not be enough, as it's possible for the Hippies and Burninluv to both stay ahead of the pack.  The Elvers would be wise to leave SnooSnoo healthy enough to challenge the Hippies next week, as that game may be as important to their playoff hopes as their own.

With any loss or tie, the Elvers season would be over, as 12 points would not be enough to make it.  They could stand for a couple games of SPP farming though, that may serve them better in the long run than risking player lives on a playoff pipe dream...

[Strazos]

And now I have to hope that my showing of sportsmanship and mercy (ie - not going for the throat even after the game is decided) don't come back to bite me. 

[Ice Cream Emperor]

Battletech is certainly shaping up to be quite the clusterfuck as well. I have clinched a playoff spot even if I repeat last season and blow my final few games -- but all four teams below mine have identical records (3-0-2), and Gruntle remains only 2 points back of them.

There's a bit more spread in the TD difference (Comstar +5, Carnifex/Lamaros +3, Avaia +0, Gruntle -1) but Comstar has the most difficult matchup this week (me, natch) while Carnifex and Lamaros have relatively easy games. The Avaia-Gruntle game will probably decide which of them is still in the running for the last week, which should prove to be an epic finale.

[Ice Cream Emperor]

Ice Cream Vs Hlem - Ice Cream 4-0 I'm afraid. I hope Hlem gets some kills

I think you people are confused about what team I am playing. The Zombie MVP squad just doesn't move that fast.

[lamaros]

Battletech is certainly shaping up to be quite the clusterfuck as well. I have clinched a playoff spot even if I repeat last season and blow my final few games -- but all four teams below mine have identical records (3-0-2), and Gruntle remains only 2 points back of them.

There's a bit more spread in the TD difference (Comstar +5, Carnifex/Lamaros +3, Avaia +0, Gruntle -1) but Comstar has the most difficult matchup this week (me, natch) while Carnifex and Lamaros have relatively easy games. The Avaia-Gruntle game will probably decide which of them is still in the running for the last week, which should prove to be an epic finale.

Going to THRASH you in the last game. My star runner will be back after a break and will run rings around you.

[Ice Cream Emperor]

Going to THRASH you in the last game. My star runner will be back after a break and will run rings around you.

Pfft. That's assuming you can get past Ginaz. 

[avaia]

ICE to win out plz

[Comstar]

Battletech:
Ginaz vs Lamaros- Skaven are too fast and win 3-1.
Hlem vs Carnifix- 2-0 I'm afraid.
Avaia vs Gruntle- A slow game bogged down in the middle 1-1.
Ms vs ICE- Can my blodgy girls defeat a St 5 Mv 8 rampaging werewolf? We'll find out shortly. My prediction 2-1.  Whelp. 3-0 whitewash.

[IainC]

Playoff odds currently look like this:

Battletech:
Negative Capability are through no matter what. One more point from either of their next two games will guarantee the top spot.
F13 Catfighters, Carnifex's Cripplers, Rape of Skabine and Necco Waivers are all on the same page and at least one of them will definitely miss the playoffs. Rape of Skabine and the Catfighters both meet Negative Capability while most of the others have two soft matches each. The clinching match will likely be Waivers vs Cripplers on day 7. The loser of that match will likely be in the loserbowl.
Helmets can go through if they beat both the Catfighters and the Waivers

Cthulhu:
Beardstorm, Alive Not Dead and Acherontic Welkin are definitely though regardless of any further results.
The Bell Jar need two wins to guarantee a place.
7 Deadly need two wins and for the Bell Jar to score 4 points or less. If The Bell Jar score exactly 4 and 7 Deadly win twice then 7 Deadly are likely through on TD difference (0 to -1 respectively). They can also go through if they win once or draw twice and Bell Jar lose both their remaining games.
Peace Dogs can go through but they need two wins and for both the Bell Jar and 7 Deadly to lose or draw all their remaining games. Their TD difference of -7 means that they will almost certainly lose any tie.
The Dandies are in a similar position. Two wins and Bell Jar to get no more than one point, 7 Deadly to get less than 2 points and Peace Dogs to not win both their games. Dandies have a -3 TD deficit which isn't terrible but unless Falc or Avaia get mauled it will still be likely to lose them the tie.

Stormbringer:
Paper Armour Dolls are definitely through. One more point will guarantee them the top spot.
Ex Presidents are guaranteed a place with one win from their last two games. If they lose or draw both of their last two games then they are still through as long as both Sjofn and I fail to win all of our last games.
Beetles need two wins to cement their spot. Failing that, if they beat me and Sjofn doesn't win both of her games then they are through regardless of the result in their game vs Ramas.
Silver Horde need to beat the Beetles and they are probably safe. They have a tough game vs the Paper Armour Dolls and can't rely on getting any points from that. If it comes to a tie with either myself or Sjofn, their +3 TD difference will probably win it.
Spleen Flay Hackers need two wins. A win and a draw might do it even if Silver Horde win their game vs the Beetles but I'd need a good score in my won game to pull back the TD difference (I'm currently at -1 for the season). One win will do it if the Horde lose both of their last games and Sjofn also only wins one game or less.
Mutiny are in the same boat as me except that Sjofn has a -3 TD difference at the moment so will probably lose any ties.
Reborne's Wrestlers can go through but it requires a fairly specific set of results - if I beat the Beetles and then lose to the Wrestlers and if Sjofn picks up no more than 3 points from her last two games. In that case they go through with the winner of the Beetles v Horde game.

Twilight 2000:
Hazardous Hippies are guaranteed to be through. A win guarantees them the top spot.
Hunqua Hunqua Burniluv are almost guaranteed a spot. They will only fail to go through if they lose both of their remaining matches and SnooSnoo win both of theirs.
Minizillas need a win to claim their spot. Their last two games are vs the Chemical Elvers and Diplomatic Immunity so everything is on the line.
Diplomatic Immunity and the Chemical Elvers are both scrapping for the fourth playoff spot. They both play Minizillas and the results of those two games will likely determine who gets to go forwards.
SnooSnoo are in the running but they need two wins and for the Elvers to lose to either Bashtards or the Minizillas.

In all there are only 6 teams in the whole league with no mathematical chance of reaching the playoffs.

[Celer]

In Twilight 2k, the maths aren't quite worked out yet.  With the Hippies defeating SnooSnoo, those orcs are out of the playoffs all but mathematically (there's one scenario involving a good 9 TD swing in tiebreakers that isn't worth considering).  However, Burninluv hasn't clinched a spot just yet; it's still possible for the Minizillas and Diplomatic Immunity to both end up with more than 10 points.  Also, the Chemical Elvers gaining 3 points on the win (and +2 TDs) set them up nicely, but did not clinch anything outright.

With 2 games to play this week, BurninLuv, my Elvers, Minizillas, and the Diplomatics are all still fighting for 3 spots.  It seems likely that Burninluv will take one, needing only a single point from either a non-playoff contender or the already-clinched division leader.  If the Minizillas win this week against Diplomatic, they clinch a spot and leave Diplomatic needing a lot of help in the final week (a win, an Elvers loss, and a tiebreaker).  If Diplomatic wins, they would clinch and next week's Minizilla/Elvers matchup would determine the fourth spot.  If there's a tie, all 3 teams would still be competing for the final 2 spots (and the Minizilla/Elvers could potentially play for a tie and both advance).

But hey, no pressure guys! 

[Strazos]

So this is...what, at least 2 times now that Celer has changed the outcome of a game with completely BS maneuvers? 

We should have an award for Most Humorous Turn, and Most BS Turn, or something along those lines.

[Sky]

I'd put my "skull/skull/skull pow 3d block rerolled to a skull/skull/skull pow" TWICE IN ONE GAME up there for most BS turn(s) 

[Celer]

Pretty much every single one of my TDs has been BS, that is why I love elves! 

This one was pretty special though.  I went from completely surrounded at my own goal line to a TD.  Then again, that's what elves are supposed to do, so is it really BS?  BS is like a dwarf throwing a long pass for a TD...

My favorite turn(s) of the season is still from Day 1 against Teleku, wherein we each failed a GFI going over the goal line within a couple turns of each other.

[eldaec]

Expresidents  and Paper Dolls are qualified, two spots left in Stormbringer...

                        Pts   TDD    To Play
Beetles               8    +2      Silver Horde
Silver Horde       7    +2       Beetles              
Hackers             7     -1       Wrestlers
Wrestlers           7      -5      Hackers
The Mutiny        6     -3       Harbringers


Beetles

Will go out if defeated, unless Hackers and Wrestler also tie and Beetles lose by less than 3. In the case of a tie the Beetles will qualify unless Hackers/Wrestlers is not a tie and Mutiny beat Harbringers by 5. A win against the Horde will guarantee 3rd place.

Silver Horde

Definitely out if defeated, a draw in the last match would see them hold on to 4th spot if Hackers and Wrestlers also tie and Mutiny do not beat Harbringers. A win will see the Horde through no matter what happens elsewhere.

Hackers

Defintely out of defeated, a tie could be enough if Mutiny do not win and either Beetles win, or the Silver Horde win by 3. A win guarantees progression.

Wrestlers

A win guarantees progression. Not winning guarantees they are out. Simples.

Mutiny

Definitely need a win to have a shot at qualification. They also need either the Hackers and Wresters to tie, or the Beetles and Horde to tie combined with Mutiny themselves securing a 5 TD victory.

[Ruvaldt]

Stormbringer is a nail biter yet again.  Apart from Andy and I the entire division is only separated by a spread of two points.  Everyone in the division has an in, even the Ogres!   

Nice breakdown, Eldaec.

[Sjofn]

Winning 5-0 does not seem likely. 

Still, I didn't expect to be even remotely in the hunt, so I can't really complain!

[Falconeer]

I think anyone from Tier Noob! belongs to the Failoffs. It should be like a rite of passage. Just saying.

[Celer]

Sjofn is just trying to downplay her ringer status. 

[Paelos]

So do we have to win our way out of the failoffs with the end match being the Toilet Bowl between the worst 2 teams?

Because that would be awesome.

[Sky]

the Toilet Bowl

(btw I'll be in it! Fear the Bashturds!)

[Sjofn]

Sjofn is just trying to downplay her ringer status. 

Look, I did way better when everyone (including myself, mind you) expected me to lose all my games is all I'm sayin'.

[Paelos]

Sjofn is just trying to downplay her ringer status. 

Look, I did way better when everyone (including myself, mind you) expected me to lose all my games is all I'm sayin'.

Expectations are everything.

[Sky]

Look, I did way better when everyone (including myself, mind you) expected me to lose all my games is all I'm sayin'.

I had a decent season last season. Then people actually started picking me to win a couple games this season, and you see where that led.

[Sjofn]

The question is, do I stick with my delicate flowers for next season, or do I pick up a team that is still delicate (<eyes something elfy>) but can actually run the fuck away from things when they need to?

Maybe I'll make a pro elf team. No one loves the pro elves. 

[Sir T]

Stormbringer is a nail biter yet again.  Apart from Andy and I the entire division is only separated by a spread of two points.  Everyone in the division has an in, even the Ogres!   

Nice breakdown, Eldaec.

I don't. 

Its ok, everyone forgwets abowt me... 

[Ingmar]

Stormbringer is a nail biter yet again.  Apart from Andy and I the entire division is only separated by a spread of two points.  Everyone in the division has an in, even the Ogres!   

Nice breakdown, Eldaec.

I don't. 

Its ok, everyone forgwets abowt me...